While this statistically might be true, I believe that this is completely dependent on one's personality. Having extra chances to remedy a trouble (which, as can be seen from the article, may occur due to reasons completely out of hand) has notable benefits, such as eliminating such prolonged downtimes.

It is like having replacement toothpaste ready for your bathroom. It is such a nuisance to go out and buy it on the day it runs out, and more likely to have a day without if you do not keep replacements ready.

Is it 10x more likely that a systematized annual renewal is going to fail if the domain name has been registered for 10 years already?

It would be hard to make the case for 2x, but 10x?

This feels like a solid way to do it.

LetsEncrypt chose 3 months. Maybe that’s a hint for us that frequent renewals are better.