People have been saying this forever and we're still waiting for any sign of it. People love to over-simplify economics and make the big assumption that the historical progress seen in the west in previous eras is a repeatable system on a simple arc trajectory of advancement. But I personally believe it is as much a product of the local (work) culture, politics, and economic systems... not simply just a side-effect of the creation of a middle class.

Just look at Japan. They had a great period of innovation within a particular period of chaos where the old cultural rules weren't being imposed and whole new industries were developed. Which later became crippled by a variety of forces, including most notably culture and how 'elders'/successful companies are treated like gods, while upstarts became marginalized as the larger firms became politically entrenched. Now that the systems are in place the creative class has largely been stamped out.

That had little to do with Japan's particular position on some growth model but a variety of distinct local forces.

This type of thing is also not just a product of industry but also academically, which we've also seen a lack of larger sweeping innovations coming out of China, instead mostly just narrower progress within existing western thought. It's entirely possible that what China is best at is these type of things, mastering these individual existing categories, optimizing them, and working harder than anyone else at them. Rather than developing the more creative innovations which bring together disparate pieces from other areas into new ones.

That too seems to be a result of cultural and economic system... not simply their position within some predicable growth model which worked in the west.

Does it? I think American payment systems are winning outside of China/USA. Of course it won the Chinese market because China makes it extremely difficult for foreign tech companies to compete.