We live in a world of uncertainty, but it's not at all true that everything is equally uncertain. An MD is more reliable than a guy in a bar when talking about medicine. An economist is also more reliable, as are certain economists and economic institutions, as are the consensus of economists.
Same might be true for many economists. We like to think we've got the right experts, but it turns out we really don't know if the so-called experts have the most useful perspective on matters.
I think I just particularly mistrust economists.
It's partially that if these new studies are correct it's just amazing how so many economists could be so wrong about something that seems so obvious. I can't even fathom it without imagining they were paid off.
Funny thing is I know people who will bring up talking points of economists in real life while ignoring the "reality on the ground", and I know they aren't paid for. They won't even consider that the economists might be wrong. Maybe there's just been a lot of groupthink in economics.
My experience is that with very rare exceptions, if I think experts who study an issue are all so obviously wrong, then I'm the one who misunderstands something (about the facts, the experts, or who knows what). The 'everyone's an idiot and missing the obvious' theory rarely holds up.
The study is interesting. Let's not get carried away with the interpretations of a bunch of HN users, of one news report, about one economic study, by a small research institute in Kalamazoo MI.
In this case I'm not saying "everyone is an idiot and missing the obvious", I'm saying "politicians and economists are idiots and are missing the obvious", because this is a case where the average non-academic person would intuitively believe outsourcing would be bad for American industry in the long run.
I'm not saying that more research shouldn't be done into this, but if it's correct than the incorrect conclusions of economists helped to decimate the American manufacturing industry. If this is the case then how did things go so wrong, and how do we avoid something like this in the future?