Analysis of Stuxnet malware (and implication of Cyber Warfare)
langner.com
langner.com
Some more info here: http://www.symantec.com/connect/blogs/stuxnet-introduces-fir...
"A previous historic example includes a reported case of stolen code that impacted a pipeline. Code was secretly 'Trojanized' to function properly and only some time after installation instruct the host system to increase the pipeline's pressure beyond its capacity. This resulted in a three kiloton explosion, about 1/5 the size of the Hiroshima bomb."
EDIT:
Found the story, it might not be entirely true: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_pipeline_sabotage
As far as who its attacking if the PLC payloads could be unencrypted it might reveal that they attack a certain kind of device, or perhaps in a certain installation or configuration. Finding out exactly what those payloads doing will be the most interesting, and revealing of all. The Symantec article says that the payloads have changed over time, as well.
Why do you think that it will have a short lifetime? Just because a patch is available, doesn't mean that it's been applied.
I guess I'm buying into the idea that its difficult to do attacks against PLC's for SCADA systems. I have to claim ignorance on that issue, but it sure seems like its a hard problem. That difficulty, combined with the relative sophistication of the malware (four 0days, etc) lends credence to the idea that its a targeted attack.
Additionally, releasing malware that targets something like that and then just waiting to see which plants you end up owning seems unlikely. What is the motivation? Once you figure out which ones you own, then you write more custom attacks against those targets?
Of course this attack was targeted in the sense that it went after SCADA equipment, but there was far more than a single target. Like I said, this is malware and malware is multi-purpose and reusable, and in this case it was used many, many times. These guys are looking for a story about how a single target was THE target, but they're missing the big picture.