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I think in general, it's very difficult if not impossible to realistically explore the counterfactual of "what would this property be if not for Airbnb".

However, in my neighborhood long term 12 month lease rentals most definitely seem to be being turned into Airbnb rentals. I live in Tahoe, so this isn't necessarily going to generalize to non-tourist areas. In the last five years there has been a steady conversion -- I personally know of four in my immediate neighborhood. (As in, they were long term rentals converted to Airbnb. I know the people that were kicked out of the long term rentals) When we'd recruit new people to Tahoe there used to be numerous options for local housing, things have gotten so bad that the company I work for opted to buy a condo to provide temporary housing for new recruits while they look for more permanent accommodations.

An additional (also anecdotal) data point: our realtor told us that investors looking to convert homes into Airbnb are very active right now.

On the plus side (potentially, not everybody agrees) Airbnb also seems to have converted a number of second homes that were previously unoccupied most of the year.

Have the anti-rental things Tahoe done anything to curtail the local movement or is that not in your neighborhood?

https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/Study-Tahoe-s-Airbnb-l...

Tahoe has a surprising number of jurisdictions! I'm on the Nevada side, so I don't have personal experience with the SLT enforcement.

Here there seems to be a fair amount of teeth gnashing about airbnb -- there are clearly more people in the neighborhoods and rentals for locals are now hard to find. But the homeowners think it's raising property values and are kind of happy that if they ever leave Tahoe there is now a pretty straitforward way to hold on to their property. The end result is not much happening.

The SLT ordinance is addressing the what I think is the major fear for many -- that a nearby house will become an unbearable party house. I think pretty much all of the Tahoe jurisdictions have moved quickly to ensure that doesn't happen. In our neighborhood, I've been told the sheriff responds in minutes to a noise complaint, and that the visit results in fairly draconian fines to the property owner.

I'm not from NYC, not even from the US, but here are some reasons for locals to do that:

1) More money. Yes, stability is nice and all, and managing the reservations is annoying and/or expensive, but if the difference is big, people will choose it.

2) Renter-friendly laws. Here, if that stable leaser stops paying, it's a pain in the ass to get them out - you have to sue them in small claims court, and then have to go to another court to get an eviction order, which finally lets you kick them out. An Airbnb guest is only there for a few days, and after that they become a trespasser.

Rent stabilization rules may also prevent you from raising them as much as you could (though this is more a problem for longer than 12 month leases).

3) Fun. Some people I know really enjoy interacting with the guests and showing them around town :)

> but if I'm a landlord, why would I give up having a stable tenant paying market rate rent for 12 months at a time for essentially managing a hotel room.

As of today, there is a lot less paperwork involved, and also the tenant has fewer rights. If you rent for 12 months, and they stop paying you, it could take you many months to get rid of that person, and you'd never get the money back. You also have to find renters and negotiate leases yourself.

With AirBnB, they take care of the finding and negotiating part, and if you manage to get a popular spot, you'll make far more money with the short term rentals, even accounting for AirBnBs cut and any service providers you might need to maintain the place.

Fair enough, although there are plenty of realtors happy to help landlords vet and negotiate w tenants for 12 month leases (and then charge the tenant a fee for their services).

I still see more risk/work in the AirBnb model, but I can see where some landlords (esp. local ones w small numbers of apartments) could find it worth it.

I'm guessing a lot of the Airbnb rentals are just those traditional sublets showing up in an easy to quantify form.

This not true for NYC. There's always demand for rooms in NYC with quick turnover. There's always real estate speculators with empty rooms.

In the end, you really answered your own question:

the 'rent per day' is going to be a lot better with the hotel room model

You're right, it is a different business to manage, and maybe you're after less risk/more passive income as a landlord, but you can't make that assumption for everyone. Plus, AirBNB takes care of most of the paperwork.