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Comment by dingaling | Hacker News Reader

Twas ever thus, but it's cyclical. In the 60s and 70s mainline airlines bought jets of 90 seats up from either Boeing or Douglas. Only nationalised airlines bought Vickers or Dassault, and pinko commies had to make do with Ilyushins and Tupolevs.

There was a brief period of competition in the late 70s / 80s when Airbus and Lockheed were trying to be different. Order was soon restored, then came the 90s with the regional jet fad and the rise of Embraer and Bombardier.

But now we're back to a big duopoly. Ilyushin are still around but only Cuba still buys from them. The next shake-up will come from China; once their civil aviation designs reach the sophistication of their military aircraft they'll start earning orders across Asia, then Europe..

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Embraer has potential to destabilize this duopoly with the E-Jet (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_E-Jet_E2_family) before China. Last month they just delivered the first units to a Norway airline.

Boeing made an strategic offer to acquire Embraer this year, before Embraer makes a dent on their market, but since it's a government controlled company there's a good chance it won't take the offer.

> but since it's a government controlled company there's a good chance it won't take the offer.

Though the most recent news on this says the deal is in advanced stages (according to Estadão). Apparently, it's likely to happen, given the appointment of a government representative to the board of the newly-formed company.

Sad. If the deal doesn't include a clause for local operation or project continuity, they might just dismantle the local commercial jet division to kill competition and keep selling revised 737s :(

Actually, Russia is back in business with Sukhoi Superjet 100[0]. They Already produced and sold quite a few aircraft despite the crash during the demonstration to clients[1]

[0]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Superjet_100

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Mount_Salak_Sukhoi_Superj...

There is also the Irkut MC-21 which will be a direct competitor to the A320. It is currently going through testing and certification process.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irkut_MC-21

Russia and China are both in the small mainline-jet market. Russia with the Sukhoi SuperJet, China with the Comac C919.

China's AICC is also buying the rights to produce An-225s, including the tooling and training, supposedly in order to jump forward a bit more on engine tech (the C919 will use CFM Leap engines built overseas.

Japan will also have the Mitsubishi Regional Jet with 90 seats.

They're developing it, yes. But I'm not expecting it to be much of a success, assuming it ever properly goes on the market at all.

Russia and China have a bit more leverage to get their airlines to buy home-grown aircraft.

Interestingly, SpaceX is one of the very few companies that does rocket launches but not commercial or military aircraft. And they have recently released concept videos of Earth-to-Earth transport. How long before they make a real jump into commercial aviation?

They have already announced this as an eventual goal.

I don't know if SpaceX will do aviation other than the long-haul Mach 20 BFR type, but Elon Musk has expressed interest in high speed electric aviation as well. If Tesla and/or SpaceX end up being too successful, he'll probably guide one of them to that space.

And then maybe India will follow in China’s footsteps.

currently in china, was in bangalore last week..

China feels almost like a first world nation at this point (albeit a weird one).

India, even in the most prosperous/developed city is still essentially a crappy 3rd world place.

I don't think India will naturally follow the progress China has made, and I definitely don't think amazing manufacturing will suddenly spring up from nowhere in India.

It really depends on which part of China you are visiting. The first tier cities are superficially way more developed than most countries in the world (although not so much in terms of quality of life and access to opportunities). As you move down the tiers you see the opposite end of the spectrum and some of the poorest and least developed parts of the world.

I think his points is in India, even tier one cities are still feel like 3rd world.

(Just paraphrased what he said, I've never been in India).

I am in Hyderabad right now and I agree. Hitec City has a veneer of modern but it is thin and already showing wear after only a few years. And I don’t have to travel out of this area to see plenty of people living a third-world existence.

Having friends here now I want to see them succeed but at this point most of them that can figure out how to leave here, do.

In China, the poor living in rural areas cannot easily move to cities (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hukou_system). In India the poor can move to cities.

>>India, even in the most prosperous/developed city is still essentially a crappy 3rd world place.

As an Indian, I would say you are right. India is attempting to skip several cycles of progress and arrive at the end result. There are also deep socio-economic problems to solve.

A more important problem is that quality of Human resources. Things like infrastructure are easier to fix compared to building a educated, civilized and highly trained workforce.

>>I don't think India will naturally follow the progress China has made

The Chinese kind of politics is impossible in a country as diverse as India. If you force through you only end up breaking the country. So we will never have a single party, single flavor rule in India.

There is a man living in China who makes YouTube videos from a Western perspective the channel name is ADVChina. In one video he visited India and said the big difference between India and China the obvious being India's ethnic diversity and religions. In China Communism pretty much wiped out religion and the people are more homogeneous than India.

And as mentioned in a comment above the first-world sections are mainly the large cities, the countryside is still essentially third-world conditions.

Plus recently it seems China has become very increasingly anti-Western, this man has lived there 12 years and has said recently a strong anti-Western vibe has begun to be noticeable.

> There are also deep socio-economic problems to solve.

The biggest problem is that india has a mindset problem. They, especially their leaders, academics, etc do not see themselves as a major nation. It's why india is still part of the british commonwealth.

> The Chinese kind of politics is impossible in a country as diverse as India. If you force through you only end up breaking the country.

That's the mindset I was speaking of. Indians themselves see progress as impossible. Also, China is a diverse nation as well, that hasn't prevent them from organizing and progressing.

What india needs is a healthy dose of nationalism and learn to stand on her own. But that will never happen as long as india is subservient to britain. India has a world of potential and none of the execution. All because of the mindset of the leadership and the people. It's tragic.

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