Everyone Wants to Go Home During Extra Innings, Maybe Even the Umps
fivethirtyeight.com
fivethirtyeight.com
This is something I think MMA does really well, as the rules are mostly in place to prevent permanent injury and the "meta" seems to evolve nicely on its own. (I'd still like to see a version of MMA with no gloves - it would probably be much safer).
I don't always agree with changes that come to my particular game of choice (Starcraft II) but I think the steady stream of small adjustments is a boon that other competitive venues should learn from.
What do the data on this look like? Anecdotally, I know lots of sports fans and very few e-sports fans.
For me, I actually wish esports were more like traditional sports when it comes to game changes, rather than the other way around. There's no chance for truly deep strategies and specializations to develop when the rules are changed every couple months.
They tend to be much more unbalanced than traditional sports. If a "cheese" is found, then the game quickly becomes all about microsecond timing at pulling that strategy off, and no real innovation or change, which at least to me is boring to watch.
That being said, there are esports games that don't really "change" all that much or at all. Games like super-smash-bros melee or super Street fighter ii come to mind, where the "rules" have been fairly stable for a while now.
i think your take is correct in the long run, but developers have a long road ahead of them before they are creating truly balanced games that can endure decades without change.
The imminent destruction of American football; however, is likely to change up the sports landscape. Football soaks up a lot of bodies that are going to be searching for a different sport.
As a lifelong baseball fan, I'm curious what is too fast.
These are the subjective impressions of a fan who mostly dropped the game after the ‘95 strike. Perhaps the slow pace of the game shapes my perception.
If the player touches the umpire does that player get kicked out of the field?
I literally saved my team's season one year when I wrote an upheld protest of a misapplication of the IFR. We won the replay, that got us into the playoffs, and we won the championship.
Stephen Jay Gould's analysis of why nobody hits .400 anymore is relevant here, I think. His argument, basically, is that there have been massive performance gains over the past 75-ish years, just in a way that deceptively depresses many of the statistics we compare to from earlier days.
The overall ceiling of physical performance for a human hasn't changed much in that time frame, and generally doesn't seem to change much in modern developed countries. The occasional people who win the genetic and upbringing lotteries today have much the same physical capacity as their predecessors of decades ago. But thanks to improved training, conditioning, coaching and selection, the average major-league player today is vastly better than in, say, the 1940s or 50s. Which means the gap between the very best professional players and the average professional player is much smaller than it used to be.
So take Mike Trout as an example. He's consistently the pick for the best player active in the major leagues today. He put up a .326 batting average in his rookie year, and that's the highest he's gotten as a major-league player. Which seems bad compared to Ted Williams' .406 in 1941 (the last time any major-league player had a batting average of .400 or better in a full season).
But, of course, Ted Williams faced the average player of 1941, and Trout faces the average player of today. The gap between Trout and the average major-league player today is far smaller than the gap between Williams and the average player in 1941. And if Trout got to face 1941-level competition, he'd be absolutely slaughtering them, as we can see from his earlier statistics: in his final minor-league stint before being promoted to a full-time major league player, he put up a .403 average.
To really appreciate Mike Trout, we have to turn to more modern statistics rooted in a better understanding of what leads to winning baseball games. Only three players have had a season at 10 or more fWAR in this millennium, and two of them -- Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez -- had careers tainted by steroid use. The other player to do it is Mike Trout. In 2012 he was good for 10.0, with the next best player being the Giants' Buster Posey at 7.6 and only 26 players in the major leagues breaking even 5.0 fWAR. In 2013 he reached 10.1, and only 25 players were at 5.0 or higher.
But, of course, modern baseball statistics are unfamiliar and often impenetrable to people used to batting average, home runs, RBIs, and (for pitchers) ERA and win-loss records. Which means it's hard to explain how we know that Trout -- who, by virtue of being on the Angels, has only been in the playoffs once, where his team got swept in the first round -- is so amazingly good at baseball, and how good the average player now is, which in turn means the perception, based on the older stats, is that players must not have gotten much better since the old days, or may even have gotten worse.
likewise there's limited opportunity to playtest -- MLB usually does this during spring training, for things like video reviews, the designated hitter, speed-of-play things, and so on.
There's a lot of room to test out new rule changes, but it would take a lot of effort to get them adopted every where.
There are some common rule changes that only make sense in leagues to limit length and discrepancies in competition. Limited innings, run limits per inning, mercy rule, home run limits, starting with runners in extra innings.
However, the rules that the MLB are looking into wouldn't make any sense in non-professional leagues. MLB is looking at limiting visits to the mound and pitching clocks.
Your local high school game isn't going to have pitcher-induced piece of play problems because the player's just aren't that good. Or, if they are, then the game will be forfeited early.
I can't imagine MLB fans being okay with rules that stifle competition. Starting an inning with runners on feels 'icky' for lack of a better term.
I remember when the NHL introduced shootouts. As an NHL fan, I was upset, but I understand the reasoning behind it. There's a large constituency that doesn't like games that end in a tie. Penalty shots are exciting, even when they're manufactured. And, it's a common rule in other hockey leagues (and football/soccer). So, not a big change, but disappointing to a lot of fans; myself included.
However, the change from 4-on-4 to 3-on-3. That was excellent, imo.
Just thinking about the number of rule changes in the NHL, since 2005, is pretty amazing. Certainly it is more exciting, but to get back to baseball, it has me thinking of all the room there is to adjust the game of hockey. Eliminate two line pass, adjust equipment size and materials, regulate goalies, regulate defense, regulate fighting, instant icing, concussion testing, etc., etc., etc.
I couldn't even come up with did ways to make baseball "more exciting". And, even if someone did, then I feel that it would be detrimental to the game.
Just for fun.
1. The first batter runner dictates which base is "first" by running left (to "third") or right (to "first"). This would make indeed infield defense more difficult and add an extra degree of thought into the game.
2. Fielders must rotate positions each inning. Now you can't just put the lefty, 250lbs guy at first because he'll have to shag some balls in the outfield and be a nightmare at shortstop.
3. Rescind the "ball in cap", which is a ground rule triple if a fielder catches a ball with his hat. Instead, make it an ground rule double-play. Just for the fun of seeing someone try it and, as a result, for all the dropped balls.
4. Any player that hits a home run may go back up to bat. Why, yes, i would love to see a single player go back-back-back HRs before taking himself out of the game due to exhaustion.
5. The starting pitcher may opt to throw a red/hot ball once per game. If he throws a strike, then it's a strikeout. If it's a ball, a walk. If it's hit, then it can't be caught (else it's a ground rule double). Hit by pitch is a HR. A batted HR is a grandslam. A foul becomes a do over.
6. The opposing team sets your lineup. Starting pitchers must have a minimum days rest. And, the lineup cannot be changed in the first inning except for injury.
There's a large constituency that doesn't like games that end in a tie.
The downside is that teams that feel confident in their penalty shooting play not-to-lose for the last 10 minutes.It's like using free throws instead of sudden death OT in basketball.
A better solution would be 4-point game scoring. 4 points for a regulation win, 3 for OT win, 2 each for ties, 1 for OT loss. Teams are incented to play hard all the way, and you don't get that mixup of games being 2 or 3 points.
I like rule changes that limit sleaziness, like no change or TV timeouts for icing, no-touch icing, limiting mound visits and batter delays in baseball. Teams like the Dodgers and Astros had turned mound visits into an art form.
if you were going to make an outrageous rule change, i've often thought that you could have some sort of "offsides rule", where either the outfielders have to be inside some line when the pitch is thrown (thus requiring them to run farther and limiting flyouts), or the infielders have to be outside some line (requiring them to sprint in and increasing the chance of reaching base on a grounder). or both, if you want things to be very silly.
Preventing permanent injury is in everyone's interest and the synchronised interest can mean it happens quickly, yes.
On the other hand, video reviews in soccer create a bit of controversy and a human element that people enjoy.
FIFA's 2005 comment on this: "It's part of football" is undeniable.
Unfortunately with video review, it can take several minutes to look over which completely disrupts the pace of the game and any momentum one team may have had.
Baseball and soccer are two of the most traditional and conservative sports, so it's not as fair to single them out, even though baseball goes through periods of raising and lowering the pitchers' mound.
8oz gloves seems to be a very reasonable middle ground to me.
That's the idea of gloveless, you can't just trade blows all day. It probably would make boxing safer (where safer means choosing hand damage over brain damage).
In MMA I believe it would reduce boxing and increase the prevalence of grappling and muay thai. Ultimately the goal I'd like to aim for is less chronic head injuries, I think gloveless would do that, but who knows.
On the topic of ditching "safety gear" I'm curious what CTE rates are comparing American Football to Rugby or Australian Football.
Joe Rogan is a tool but he’s not always wrong.
Now that I haven't played in years I don't enjoy watching any more because it's too far removed from the game it was when I played. I can't tune in to an important final and follow along at anything other than the most superficial of levels.
If the meta was static then id be a casual follower, as it is I'm not any sort of follower.
Professional sports seem to have very large casual fan bases. If you kept changing the rules then maybe they'd be fine with that, or maybe they'd be like me and stop watching.
Sometimes you need to realize when you have a good thing and leave it alone...
The last good change was introducing the ability to challenge a call and get it reviewed. Since then we've seen the slide and collision rules, which mostly nobody -- even, at times, the umpires -- seems to understand well enough to apply. And the new pitch-less intentional walk, which was just pointless as a time-saver. And this year the mound-visit count, which is pointless again. And now proposals like starting extra innings with a runner in scoring position, because apparently the drama of a tied game with potential sudden-death situations isn't interesting and we just need to make sure it ends as quickly as possible, or ideas for how to make defensive shifts illegal so hitters never have to adjust to how the defense is playing.
Baseball is always going to be a more slow-paced game than the other major sports. That's inherent in the game. The solution should be to find ways to embrace that and showcase the interesting things that lead to it having the pace it does. And really the biggest focus ought to be on solving the ridiculous maze of restrictions on watching major-league baseball without a cable TV subscription, since the game needs to maintain a base of younger fans and those fans increasingly are not going to have traditional TV subscriptions.
Baseball is currently literally in the business of telling people "it's nice that you want to pay hundreds of dollars to watch our sport, but we're not in the business of letting you do that". This recent article gave a good overview of how that happened despite MLB having probably the best streaming and online service of any major US sport:
https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/04/major-league-baseball...
> proposals like starting extra innings with a runner in scoring position
Manfred has said this is a rule that will not make its way into the majors [0]. The objective is to lower pitch counts for developing pitchers in the minor leagues.
[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxMK_Wwgvl8&feature=youtu.be...
IBB occurred 970 times in 2017. Assuming the pitch-less intentional walk saves 5 minutes each time it occurs (which is a high estimate), the average game time dropped by 2 minutes.
That's not a huge difference.
EDIT: had the wrong numbers, updated with the right numbers.
It's interesting to compare that to cricket. Umpires can direct decisions to the "third umpire", and teams have a limited number of reviews (which they can ask the third umpire to review the decision), and the third umpire has access to replays (including slow-motion), Snickometer (microphones detecting the sound of the ball hitting the bat/player), Hot-Spot (thermal imaging cameras showing where the ball struck), and Hawk-eye (ball trajectory tracking).
There is plenty of material out there from the past few decades.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2010/jan/24/video-repla...
edit: I know I didn't address your issue, I'm trying to find this argument but Google has become quite useless.
edit: “protect the simplicity and universality of the game”
https://www.theguardian.com/football/when-saturday-comes-blo...
VAR (video assistant referee) will be used at World Cup 2018 in Russia. It's already being used in Germany and MLS (US). Most leagues are planning to implement it within the next few years.
It's been very clumsy at first, but over the last few years, there have been so so many high profile stupid mistakes by refs. The success of the goal line tech just made VAR a natural evolution IMO.
Call me cynical, but I am convinced this is because the brass of soccer are corrupt to the core, and this threatens their business model. They are going at it as slow as humanly possible.
Sepp Blatter, and the Qatar vote, have forever ruined what little trust I had in association football.
Sure, change the rules once in a while, but not every other patch.
The fact that I can't tell says something about cricket ...
They bowled about four balls before there was a shout from the clubhouse, and all the players left the field to drink sparkling wine and eat strawberries.
I think my colleague understood the spirit of the game.
Test cricket (the 5 day matches) on the other hand is just about the perfect spectator sport for the Australian summer I reckon. You have the Xmas Holiday period with time off from work combined with the fact it's too hot to do anything around the house. So putting your feet up enjoying a few beers and watching the cricket with your extended family is a great way to pass the time.
On the other hand, limited overs cricket doesn't do much for me either. I'd rather just watch a footy game at that stage.
It feels like the difference between the NFL & Rugby - related but a vast strategic and game flow difference
How many times are you expected to run in baseball though? In cricket, it could easily be 100+ (22-yards a time).
Same with bowlers - a 10-20 yard run up for potentially hundreds of balls is a not insignificant amount of work.
I feel like you are comparing two things that are _different_, and just deciding one is lesser for no clear reason (both sports seem quite athletic to me). I'm also not sure what difference the size of the bat makes to athleticism (they also aren't _that_ much different in size: <4.25in width vs. ~2.7in for baseball, <38in length vs. ~42in for baseball, and weigh roughly the same: ~1.2kg for a cricket bat, ~1kg for a baseball bat).
Also, outs are cheap in baseball, but very expensive in cricket - so playing more conservatively is optimal.
Plus the ball is a LOT harder. A lot.
The US baseball season seems to make it impossible to watch all your teams games, even for the most dedicated fan.
And, to stifle the high, there was an absolute (and ongoing) tragedy less than a week later.
I watched 100+ regular season games of the Dodgers last season. It was a lot of baseball. That plus an exhausting World Series meant I had to decompress and avoid sports for a few months.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longest_professional_basebal...
(From a baseball player who once attempted to play cricket with my Indian friends. Threw out my shoulder in the first “at bat”)
If the schedule is reduced, a certain amount of payback or retroactive contract negotiation would have to occur with the myriad of networks paying to broadcast the games.
One part of the entire draw of baseball is that (usually) it's looked at more-so as a marathon of a sport. It's all about which teams can withstand the long season than not. You could have a 10 game win streak in May, but that doesn't make a difference in September if your team's division is still close. You need to have the health at that point and durability of players to continue to be successful, especially through the playoffs.