Hacker News Reader

Comment by tshibley | Hacker News Reader

It will be fascinating to watch the modernization of North Korea if we end up heading in that direction. I'm particularity interested to see if it is possible for a leader/party with a brutal a reputation as that of Kim Jong Un to retain power as the country opens up (although to be fair we are a _long_ way from any real change).

View on HN

Some forms of modernization has been going on for years now, but mainly in the shadows as it's all rather illegal. But a peace would certainly help speed up this process hopefully, let's see how this will go.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-03/north-korea-activists-...

This doesn't sound like NK is any closer to opening up, just that NK has completed their nuclear program and is looking to reassert their influence on the Korean peninsula.

I think China might already be an example of how that can go, where they've had a pretty strict regime for a long long time but we've seen that evolve over time.

I think North Korea is fascinating because it's been so isolated, and progress is bound to be huge. And the 21st century makes everything so much more visible. And seeing history happen is pretty exciting.

Although yes, the current state of North Korea's government does make meaningful progress difficult to imagine. But it's also not permanent. Either the government will evolve, or Kim Jong Un will die someday...

To be fair we've seen that evolve over time back into a single leader holding nearly all the power

Though still with a higher level of individual security and freedom than during the worst of Mao's rule.

Fair enough

Interestingly, Kim Jong Un can easily make the argument in hindsight that he inherited the brutal system and then set about to change it for the better (and that it would take time). That first they had to secure nuclear weapon delivery capability to ensure their security; once that was accomplished, they could then negotiate peace on a more level playing field, from a position of strength, with the US. If they want to spin it, that's an easy way to go. Kim Jong Un becomes the benevolent dictator that brought a Vietnam-style boom to North Korea (I reference Vietnam, because it wasn't very long ago that their Communist regime was still very closed and brutally repressive, more like a pre Deng Xiaoping China).

He could make that argument, but he'd be laughed at all the way to De Hague.

He always had the option of just laying down the weapons, opening the border to the South and letting others make the decision from now on. It's not like South Korea are actually their enemy in want-to-kill-them terms.

I'm super ignorant on the topic, but when i try imagine being in his shoes for a moment...the concept of doing exactly what you're proposing feels like it might result in some kind of uprising or assassination from within the leadership ranks.

Given the state of the country for the last ~70 years, the last 24 months has seen what looks like massive progress. Perhaps he has different goals and is going through a fairly methodical process of getting popular opinion on his side before moving forward on what he really wants?

He always had the option of just laying down the weapons, opening the border to the South

That's a pretty naïve supposition. Being a dictator is not like playing a video game, despite how fun and easy Sid Meier's Civilization makes it seem. In the real world you can be shot by your own soldiers if you alienate the wrong person.

"Dictators ride to and fro upon tigers from which they dare not dismount."

Kim Jong Un inherited his position atop the tiger's back. He was brutal, sure, but I do not envy anyone who inherits such a dangerous situation.

I've often thought of North Korea as the longest running hostage situation in history. What usually happens to hostage takers when they finally leave the building?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com