Y Combinator, Backer of Dropbox, Vaults from Experiment to Kingmaker
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Kingmakers... hardly. I remember going to a Commonwealth Club talk in January of 2013 titled: "Y Combinator:The Secret in this Incubator's Sauce". They talked about how YC exits are on par with or worse than any person trying to start a company. Sure there is tons of support when you're in the program and they really try to ensure soft landings through their relationships, but it's hardly a machine where your entrance into YC guarantees you a billion dollar valuation and great IPO.
Saying that, I still think YC is a wonderful program. It's what business school should be — starting and running a company; not talking about it. They have amazing leadership, mentorship, relationships and community in place which remove huge barriers from starting a company. I advise everyone I know who has a company idea to apply every semester.
[1] - http://yclist.com
https://www.seed-db.com/accelerators
If you look at the runners up to YC, they're still far behind on a lot of metrics
Now, I agree that all these new "Entrepreneurship Master's" are a bunch of BS, but business school per se might have its merits.
After thinking about it, you're right — Business school probably should't be renamed, but more explicit: Run Someone Else's Business School. And YC is more like: Run Your Own Startup School.
> Kingmakers... hardly.
An IPO is not the only measure of success. Some successful YC companies are opting to remain private longer e.g. AirBnB, Coinbase and some have been acquired e.g. Heroku, Reddit.
Also, being private longer but losing money is not sustainable. If companies are private and profitable, then that's a different story. AirBnB is still raising money[3] and their valuation is almost too big for them to get acquired. Their only successful exit is an IPO or becoming so profitable that they can buy out their investors. Coinbase is making a killing so they might be sustainable especially with the growth of the cryptocurrency market over the past 2-3 years (And the fees they keep charging me). SalesForce & Condé Nast have generated more value out of Heorku and Reddit than YC.
Don't get me wrong — I love YC products. I stayed at an AirBnB in March in Vancouver, I bought some Ethereum today on Coinbase, I updated a site I maintain[4] which has been running on a free Heroku Dyno for 5 years+ and my Reddit birthday is January 19, 2010.
YC companies have the same challenges that everyone else has even with their power and influence. There needs to be more of a track record of YC companies succeeding disproportionally to other companies before I could classify them as kingmakers.
[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_currently_r...
[2] - https://www.raytheon.com/ourcompany/bbn/
[3] - https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/airbnb/funding_round...
[4] - https://gitignore.io
Private market valuations are more risky than public markets, but it isn’t 2008 anymore, and the ecosystem of large funds funding large growth rounds is well understood now.
So what? An exit is an exit, as it means the investor gets their money.
The one and only metric to look at is total value or total returns on investment.
Considering they’re almost always first money in, those are not even in the same zip code as normal returns. Those numbers are absolutely astounding.
Ok, are those figures available?
That these figures are not public is a very important discussion point, because it does introduce some level of anecdata and arbitrary speculation into the discussion. That's not to say you're wrong, but it's certainly imprecise and questionable.
What about non-founder employees?
In the top 50 what? The top 50 private companies?
This is not a correct representation of liquidity, and thinking about it under this definition can be very dangerous. You need to consider:
1. How many shares are there outstanding?
2. What is the ask price of those shares on paper?
3. What is the bid price of those shares by investors willing to purchase them on the private market?
4. How many owners are allowed to sell their shares at the same time?
5. How many owners could realistically find a buyer at the paper ask price of the shares?
6. How many owners could sell their shares before the existing deviation (spread) between the paper ask price and available bid prices changed?
This is not to say your overall point is wrong, it's to say that it can't be defended this way; more importantly, we really shouldn't be simplifying our discussion and its definition of liquidity to the one you've presented here, which is too simplistic. There is a lot of nuance about price discovery between public and private valuation that's missing here. For (one) example, you can maintain an artificially inflated valuation of a private company if there are fewer owners willing/able to sell than there are buyers, despite a relatively larger set of potential owners either not allowed to, or not conveniently capable of, selling their shares. This scenario makes presents an asymmetry between the weighting and availability of positive vs negative price sentiment that is much more easily resolved in the public market.
1. YC has not had good returns because it has only had one IPO (apparently selling Twitch and Cruise for $1B each don’t count as a win?)
2. While it’s difficult to know what the true value of YC companies is, the fact that there are nearly 100 companies valued at $100m+ is not just a “vanity metric.” Especially st the later stages of more mature companies there are real dollars trading hands and there’s more liquidity available on secondary markets.
So we're at maybe $450m spent on initial investments and people over the years. Maybe throw in another $200m for extra investments (I presume they re-invest in a couple promising companies on demo day) and other costs.
They say their portfolio's valuation is roughly $80b. Their "deal" is for 7%. I'm not super familiar with the technical stuff but they really only need to keep about 1% of that total value to be fairly successful, and I imagine that number is probably much higher unless I'm misunderstanding some of the details about how fundraising works.
Those are phenomenal returns.
http://smb-trends.com/2011/02/smb-failure-rate-us/
Out of 1280 YC companies, only 139 are listed as dead. Without pulling out a calculator to determine an exact figure, that roughly flips that figure from 90% failure rate to a near 90% success rate. And actually it is worse than that because the 90% failure rate is in the first year and the near 90% success rate for YC is an "all time" figure for the history of YC.
That $80b isn't liquid.
Otherwise I think point about the $80B not being liquid is a good one. It's not a dishonest figure, but it's clearly inaccurate and inappropriate for the purpose of estimating returns. The real answer is going to be far more nuanced than simply stating the aggregate value of all YC companies on paper.
I agree that n companies valued at over x isn’t a great metric, except that the number is so huge and the valuation so high that a single company could return the entire amount YC has invested, and what we’re debating is if YC are “kingmakers.” By nearly any possible measure they are.
Just like Ivy league schools - regardless of how good their program is, by virtue of picking the best, they have de-risked their brand dilution considerably. Mark Z didn't need Harvard or a degree to become a billionaire. If all the knowledge of YC gets democratized, anyone from anywhere can thrive at a business without going through YC
I doubt that. Knowledge alone is not what they provide. Additionally, even if it were, we often don't know what we know and trying to capture and convey our knowledge is incredibly challenging.
What people soak up by being in the same room with those in the know and getting their feedback live and watching them model behavior is just not something you can actually convey by (say) writing a book. The book would be the tip of the iceberg, at best.
Hardly. Most of the knowledge is out there, and more.
Here is how I think YC can rocketship you:
- Access to capital. Suddenly, you are visible.
- Legal advice from top experts.
- Network of startups and guys that connect with you.
- Massive interest from media (vs. if you were a noname out there)
- Pressure to achieve. You are more pressured to give results along your peers.
- Forcing you to move to the bay area. A good idea since the startup scene is still centralized.
But I guess YC is more than knowledge. It has a strong signal effect, and the regular OH sessions you get with the partners potentially can help you a lot (even though you already might know what they telling you, but like a fitness coach, it helps you stay on track). Plus the alumni network, which I guess is especially valuable for B2B businesses and future partnerships.
I didn't go through YC but know some people that have and I think that what it breaks down to.
It's impossible to know if Mark Zuckerberg would be a billionaire if not for Harvard, for both easy reasons (maybe if he went to Yale, he would have slipped on a banana peel and then gotten hit by a bus) and deeper ones (how much did luck play a role in Zuckerberg's success, and did the network and prestige of Harvard help him capitalize on his good luck?)
Zuckerberg had many more factors in his favor than just Harvard, that's for sure. Anyone who tries to explain his success by saying "oh, that's because he went to Harvard," is wrong. But it's also impossible and silly to claim that we can know that he is just so talented and intelligent that all contingency removed he still would have become a billionaire.
This applies to the broader argument about Y Combinator. YC has a competitive advantage in that it attracts companies that have many positive factors behind them to apply. But that doesn't mitigate the possibility that YC itself is another positive factor, or that the only benefit to participating in YC is knowledge. From the outside, it seems like the applied knowledge expressed as case-specific advice and mentorship would be hard to "democratize," and that the intense amount of mutual support (start ups patronizing each other and becoming an instant, deep professional network for each other) are also not really expressible as knowledge.
Access is an incredibly powerful resource that YC can provide its companies, and one that has absolutely no correlation to being "the best or the brightest." The reason there are so many successful white male founders is not because they are the "best and the brightest," but rather because they are culturally and ethnically connected to networks that provide them with access to business opportunities and conversations and platforms and education that aren't nearly as available to non-white non-men yet. There are countless "best and brightest" women of color who do not have all of the favorable circumstantial factors that made success easier for Mark Zuckerberg (and obviously made it easier for him to get into Harvard in the first place in various ways) and yet are equally brilliant and talented.
From the page trailer:
> Outline is a free service that makes websites more readable. We remove the clutter, like ads, related links, and comments—so you can read comfortably.
And just because something's executing on the server side, that really shouldn't necessarily change the legality of it. (Hell, maybe Safari or Chrome look like they're doing it locally and tunnel data through a cache server.)
1. Journalists get exposure
2. ???
3. Profit.
EDIT: I found this old HN thread from Loopt's exit. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3683994 Top comments are telling:
"Michael Moritz (Sequoia partner) is still on the board of Green Dot, now a publicly traded company worth north of a billion dollars. Almost the entire board is Private Equity/VC guys, they do this kind of inside baseball all the time, it's no sweat off their back to do Moritz a favor."
"Buddy exits like this one and the Hunch exit are very demoralising. They make startups look like some sort of game. As you indicated, Loopt was clearly dying and yet people still got rich off of it."
(Of course, none of this should be taken as a negative view of Loopt's founder, who now leads YC - the chances of having a good exit are so low and so randomized that a qualified, smart, knowledgeable founder can still simply be unlucky. But it's still a fact that he was unlucky, and we shouldn't pretend Loopt was a successful exit.)
Update: "While we may deviate from this in exceptional cases, it will still be the case for almost all of the companies we fund." https://blog.ycombinator.com/the-new-deal/
http://facebook.com/l.php?u=https://www.wsj.com/articles/y-c...
Heh /r/didntmeanto
Well played.
That is really funny. Real life writes better material for Silicon Valley.
Don't wake the children yet.