The Case Against an Autonomous Military
nautil.us
nautil.us
Chemical and biological weapons were banned under international law because they aren't all that much more effective than conventional weapons yet cause an undue amount of suffering in comparison. You get no benefits, only downsides.
The other example, anti-personnel mines, is more instructive. International law bans them because historically, belligerents who have employed them for area denial purposes never stick around and de-mine the area after the conflict is over, leaving the civilian population to suffer.
The United States refuses to sign a blanket ban on landmines, as her position is that her landmines are different, they self-destruct after a set period of time, therefore they don't threaten civilians long after the war is over.
There are two takeaways here. First, weapons are not banned before they are tested in a conflict. Second, effectiveness trumps morals, if a weapon of war is effective, that can tip it's acceptability status even in the face of "collateral" damage. This is the case with nuclear weaponry, which imposes costs on civilians but is considered worth it for their sheer power to end a conflict in minutes.
This is, after all, the entire premise upon which war is waged, for the good of the many over the few who are harmed. AI controlled weapons, unless they're left in a battlefield for civilians to contend with, something that appears fairly unlikely, at least at the moment, does not change this basic equation.
These attempts often don't work, but they do matter because sometimes they do.
Once it became clear to planners that MAD wasn't a real scenario and that the most effective strategy for nuclear weaponry involves smaller, more numerous weapons, targeted at enemy military installations, focus shifted on ensuring that enough weapons are available to fully end a conflict.
Disarmament agreements unfortunately ensure that there is strategic space for a nuclear exchange to not fully end a conflict. This raises the probabilities of major conflict rather than reduces them.
Great in theory, not in practice.
I see this every day in American politics. Couple of days ago people were fighting over what constitutes an 'assault riffle'. Mission accomplished: the actual original debate (banning guns) was already abandoned.
I don't think an outright ban was ever really up for debate. A minority wants guns banned outright. Most people just want stricter laws.
Also, "assault rifles," constitute a minority of homicides with firearms. It's mostly hand guns. Either way, gun violence is way down from it's historical peak during the early 90s. No one really knows why.
But this is not what the second amendment is about. In the words of Hammilton:
> This will not only lessen the call for military establishments, but if circumstances should at any time oblige the Government to form an army of any magnitude, that army can never be formidable to the liberties of the People, while there is a large body of citizens, little, if at all, inferior to them in discipline and the use of arms, who stand ready to defend their own rights, and those of their fellow-citizens.
The key point is that, when the rebels inevitably capture weaponry or receive foreign assistance in that form, they would be generally familiar with its use. They would have skills like marksmanship, trigger discipline, and maintenance. They might need to learn the specifics, but these skills largely transfer.
Edit: Now, I don't think banning breech-loaded firearms makes sense, but that is for reasons unrelated to the original purpose of the second amendment.
source? one center mass shot from a 12 gauge or an ar would probably put down an assailant, but only if the person aims perfectly (easier said than done with a long gun inside a building in a stressful situation). and with a pistol, by far the most common firearm in the US, you are pretty unlikely to neutralize the threat with only one shot.
As to being shot, even the 'Hollywood graze' is going to ruin your day and make a lot of noise. Actually killing someone is very rarely necessary.
A graze is called that because it rarely kills - and adrenalin is one hell of a drug, trained people can resist for quite some time in life and death situations even after being shot and stabbed multiple times.
PS: Actually walking around with a loaded gun is fairly useless vs someone willing to sniper you from a distance. The simple truth is even criminals want to minimize risks.
The clip is a weapon of war, just look at the impact repeating rifles had on the civil war for example.
As to the reasoning, a single bullet is a threat, but far less useful for mass shootings. So banning them would save thousands of american lives over time and it's also constitutional.
If you remove the full auto functionality of such gun, you can buy belt fed anything as much as you want without any licence.
Single shot handgun is incredibly bad for hunting. Single shot rifle is useful and some people still use them for added challenge. But having a bolt action rifle with maybe three rounds in the magazine is much better for beginners, because if you miss and wound the animal, you can end the suffering with follow up shot.
Clip is just a bent piece of metal. It's mostly out of favor by now. They we're used because that's insanely cheap and easy to manufacture. And currently could be manufactured in a garage with very cheap tooling.
https://milsurpexchange.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/copy_...
Magazines are the modern option. It's practically a plastic box with spring inside. It has almost no strength requirements and magazines are some of the most easily 3D printed items around.
http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2011/09/21/welcome-to-the...
Most firearms with no detachable magazine can be converted to accept a magazine relatively easily. How are you going to stop criminals from making the conversion and 3D printing the magazine?
As to 3 shots, a revolver that can't be rapidly reloaded is the kind of compromise that's worth talking about. Cutting the number of bullets you can fire in 10 seconds by say 1/3 is in and of it's self a useful compromise.
PS: Personally I don't think the full vs semi auto is generally a useful distinction because you quickly run out of ammunition in either case. However, limiting someone to say 6 shots per 30 seconds really world be a significant change.
Requirements: usage of hand drill and screwing on 3D printed adapter. Only parts of a firearm that cannot be easily manufactured or endlessly modified in some random garage are the barrel and the chamber.
>As to 3 shots, a revolver that can't be rapidly reloaded is the kind of compromise that's worth talking about.
There are currently no revolver rifles manufactured. So it would be very bad deal for hunters.
Then there are revolver speed loaders and half moon clips. Those things are bloody miraculous. The difference between those and magazines is so small that some cops still use revolvers.
Have you looked at the statistics of how many people die in mass shootings and how many people die in single shootings? Also do you know how many shots is fired in average gunfight in US?
>Personally I don't think the full vs semi auto is generally a useful distinction because you quickly run out of ammunition in either case
We agree on this. I have shot full auto AK-47 and I could probably take out 6 people with single magazine while firing full auto because you easily waste about 5 rounds with every burst. Switch to semi auto and I could probably take out 25 people with that same magazine. Switching between targets usually takes equal amount of time regardless are you firing semi or full auto.
To modify a front loading single shut gun you do have to modify the chamber.
Average shots in a gun fight is a very misleading statistic. Average shots in a gun fight resulting in death are vastly higher.
Edit: A lot more people die in US mass shootings than you might think. Once you start talking about saving 1,000+ lives per decade it's far from meaningless.
PS: "a revolver that can't be rapidly reloaded" clearly excludes speed loaders. Revolver chambers that open up are necessary before you can use a speed loader. I can only assume you are ignoring what I am actually saying.
Muzzle loaders area actually dangerous to the shooter. And outdated inefficient for most modern shooting sports and hunting. You could just as well tell people to use bow and arrow. Actually modern bows and arrows would in that situation be technically superior.
Bit like you would decide that 60 ton trucks are dangerous. Now everybody has to only drive cars manufactured prior to 1920.
My point about the statistics is that if you make magazine change impossible for the hobbyist, you should know how much impact that even can have on crime.
Anyhow, I present you a video of a guy who is first using a firearm that is not automatic or even semiautomatic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYQBgi0TRGU
Then speed loading that weapon with a plastic tube and wooden rod:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9emvE1LIEWA
I'm actually for gun control and few other things that would bring gun violence down without controlling guns. I just think your approach to the matter is absurd and would be inefficient. If terrorists would simply switch to bombs, any advantage from strict gun law would just melt away overnight.
Relatively trivial to modify. Germans did exactly that to Mauser bolt action rifles during WW2 with very little hardware.
Do you want those people to have more power and fresh markets?
Some countries that banned guns and have very little gun violence also have something else in common and that is strict border / customs control e.g. The UK, Australia, Japan and South Korea all of which are islands or effectively an island since the N. Korea border isn’t exactly open.
Mainland Europe while having less gun violence than the US isn’t exactly gun violence free far from be it and it’s a pretty commmon occurrence to have gangs shoot it out and even throw grenades at each other even in Norway since guns are easily smuggled through land from former soviet block countries and even from as far as Afghanistan.
Net result vast reduction in gun violence, zero constitutional issues.
Lol, big gun nuts are gonna have tens of thousands of shells around just waiting to be refilled.
But you don't have to completely eliminate gun violence to claim a massive reduction...
These are generally morally good reasons to spend blood and treasure
The two main suppositions are that "AI can be used to target racial groups." and "AI weapons could end up in the hands of ISIS, et. al."
While both of these are true, and certainly cause for concern, the author greatly ignores the game theory aspect of AI powered weapons.
Namely, if our enemies are building them, we must too.
I'm not trying to fear monger, but US and China are already engaged in an AI arms race. It's illogical for either party at this point to stop development.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/03/technology/artificial-int...
Two things have changed with the end of the Soviet Union:
1. The nations whose mutual destruction is assured are less ideologically opposed to each other and more economically interdependent, however...
2. ...lots of the cold war era nuclear weapons have been lost. Not destroyed, lost--they could have fallen into the hands of anyone.
Simply building weaponized AI doesn't reverse 1.
Additional methods of delivery such as sub nukes, strategic bombers, Carriers with nukes, etc. further reinforce the concept as B would be able to retaliate even after its destruction.
Now, the modern context has weakened MAD somewhat, because it's strictly an interpretation of nation-state level nuclear conflict. With the proliferation of (plausibly deniable) non-state actors in the 21st century, the concept breaks down as it makes it much harder to 'attribute' a target to blanket nuke in response.
The only things we have generally outlawed is mass killing devices such as gases and nuclear weapons and I guess firebombing in retrospect (e.g. Dresden.)
Cluster-bombing of mainly civilian targets (with some opposing forces using those civilians as a shield) is still actively used by both the US (in Raqqa) and Russia (in Aleppo). Cluster-bombing is probably not as bad as firebombing but it's nonetheless pretty damn scary. Here's a YT video of the Russians doing it in Aleppo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnd3IYH7x1o) and the effects of the US bombardment on Raqqa: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fe9qS0QKFSU
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_of_the_United_...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferatio...
The treaty admits the US, Russia, UK, France and China to maintain nuclear weapons. Israel, India and Pakistan never agreed, and North Korea acceded.
Some of those countries can deliver a nuke to anywhere on the planet in an hour.
edit: added Israel to the list of non-signatories.
We assume that the military will be the one to implement this... drone technology is very cheap now (relatively) and so are image recognition systems.
A rouge / non-state organization could easily and relatively cheaply create automated turrets and automated drones. Heck, Youtube has tons of videos of Americans doing it in their backyard just for "fun".
Would they be as good as a state military's $10MM drone? Probably not. But when you can build 10k of them from the price of one, who cares?
Really we should be worried about both.
This is not the first time this has come up. Even remotely controlled weapons are incredibly dangerous. I think the solution is not to ban autonomous weapons, they will be then used by non-state actors or "non-state actors". Governments need to enable better protection of citizens privacy. Currently any time I get mail, there is my physical address combined with my name. My phone number, current location and name are also bundled and probably visible to all kinds of people for all kinds of purposes.
It would be terribly easy to find my home address, tie small bomb to cheap drone and crash that to my bedroom window while I'm asleep. It's a perfect crime. All this could be done because I have said "I don't like nazies" or "I oppose Sharia in my country" in facebook post.
What is different is the plummeting costs of killbots. We should do everything in our power to stop these from proliferating to lesser states or terrorist groups. Just as we do with nuclear weapons. But at the end of the day autonomous devices are going to kill people and terrorists are going to do some of the killing. We need to accept that fact and design around it, not plead that the reality be different.
All you do is monitor motion via a webcam. Once you see motion, you turn on an array of high power IR lasers with lenses to make an arc of laser light. There's no blink response, and the damage is already done.
It would cost what, $500 total for the platform, including batteries for lengthy operation off grid.
To be honest, I'd rather build stuff that bolsters all of humanity, and not just 1 tribe other another. I wish we'd get out of that "us vs them" mindset. Maybe someday.
1) the decision to kill is not made by a human
2) the cost plummets so much that in the leaders' minds it starts to make sense to send one after almost everyone they want gone for whatever reason (just like it's already happening with drone strikes. It used to be that air strikes were mainly used in active war/conflict. Now it's more of a pervasive "they are always there" situation).
I don't really see a situation in which autonomous weapons would be much worse that humans. Humans can (and do) conduct genocides. If the concern is some rogue actor like North Korea getting new more powerful weapons, I don't see the benefit for the West to avoid their research and development as other countries could easily pursue autonomous weapons independently by applying civilian AI techniques to warfare.
While ISIS aren't going to develop their own AI they could concievably develop some zero-days in US systems. Turn missile defence systems against civilian airliners, for example.
https://breakingdefense.com/2018/04/a-treaty-to-ban-autonomo...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/russia-has-figured-out...
A bunch of relatively useless things (blinding lasers, stuff like that) have been eliminated/banned, but again mainly because they're not militarily particularly useful.
Take another example, mines. There is a treaty on banning them but it has not been ratified by the worst actors [1].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parties_to_the_Ottawa_...
Darwin sailed with Cook who was a military captain that colonized Australia and New Zealand.
Computers really semented their mathematical values as code breakers.
Medicine advances came around because having healthy soldiers won was.
GPS wasn’t even meant for civilian purposes.
The internet was made by a military, and much later, so was the TOR network.
Hell even something as innocent as food conservation and canned foods saw their rise as a means to feed your army.
Seriously, how much death and destruction does the US need to mete out on an annual basis, regardless of drones or what have you? All this tech has done is empower the worst, most brutal people.