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Seems to me that the dashboard is basically a png that is refreshed ever so often.

Exactly

get this, at 22:52:28 UTC, the time to reentry is 1.6h +- 1.7h

I think that's because it's currently not tracked. I.e., the station could have reentered a couple of minuted ago, and they wouldn't know.

correct, also extrapolating on bunch of equation systems is bound to lead to this sort math aberration

It was, confusingly, a computed dashboard -- not an actual tracker.