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As a back-up plan I've been collecting variations of my "perfect" domain at standard registration rates.

The cost is approaching $10k now but I don't know what the final value might be. There is less than a day left for the auction.

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The cost is approaching $10k now but I don't know what the final value might be

WIll you get $10k+ worth of additional revenue from having that name alone? What else could you spend that money on that would net the same benefit?

That's what I'm trying to figure out. If my service is successful with a less perfect domain I might be able to come back and purchase this domain at some multiple of today's price. However, if I spend too much money on the domain then I may not be able to have enough money to get to product/market fit.

The name is only an ingredient of your success. If you are relying on the name to make your service successful you have a recipe for failure. If everything is perfect (interface, design, backup/recovery,scalability) and the name is the cherry on top go for it. If you have any doubts and will need those resources to fix issues or get you past "the hump" wait and launch with a different domain. As you said you can buy it later at a higher price but at least you will have cash flow.

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