Edit: in a posting today, Tesla has said more: https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-last-week’s-accident but at the time of the earlier blog posting, Tesla says they did not know yet.
Edit: in a posting today, Tesla has said more: https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-last-week’s-accident but at the time of the earlier blog posting, Tesla says they did not know yet.
That's very curious wording. The important number would seem to be "millions of miles per fatality while Autopilot is enabled", not "millions of miles per fatality in Autopilot-equipped vehicles". The way it's phrased, I wonder what part of that 3.7x multiplier is unrelated to Autopilot and is just due to the car's high safety rating in a collision, recent release (no long tail of older, less safe models contributing to the statistics), and luxury status (more likely to be driven conservatively by old rich people.)
Notice it says one fatality per "320 million miles in vehicles equipped with Autopilot hardware." But, how many of those miles (or what percent of the time) does a Tesla driver use Autopilot? Also, maybe those good stats are due to the structural safety features and not the autopilot. It may be more fair to compare to other cars with excellent crash protection but no autopilot.
I think it would be a great service to the world to improve driving safety, but maybe we need to really start looking at the stats and get some more hubris as we transition to full autopilot. For example, require that drivers keep their hands on the wheel and eyes on the road. When more cars have autopilot, then mesh behavior between vehicles, and e-road features, then maybe we'll be more ready for driver-less cars.
Also note that this includes trucks and motorcycles, which have much, much higher fatality rates than passenger cars. Motorcycles are around 10x-50x higher fatality rate than cars! So already Tesla's blog is doing a misleading comparison to more deadly vehicle classes.
Additionally, there could be all sorts of other variables that make it hide even comparison. Are Tesla drivers physically comparable to regular drivers? Are they older? Younger? Both elderly and young kids have a higher accident rates. Are Teslas driven in rural areas and urban areas the same as regular cars? Because rural areas have a higher fatality rate.
So we need to make sure that the Tesla driver matches driving conditions of typical cars to make autopilot comparisons valid.
Right now, it appears Tesla's autopilot is a death-trap.
I agree with all the holes you poked in their stats, but then with the last sentence you just went way off the deep end. What does "death trap" mean to you? To me, it seems likely the Autopilot engaged is about as dangerous as disengaged.
Let me share an example. I had an accident in a Model S, front-end, which didn't cause a loss of power. Tesla called me a couple of minutes later, saying that they knew I'd had an airbag-deploying accident, and asking if I needed an ambulance. From the description of this accident, power to the Tesla was lost before there was time to phone home.