Magic Leap Ships First Set of Devices Under Tight Security Constraints
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
For the longest time you couldn’t get most console dev kits without a business address and very strict guidelines on a separate lockable space for the hardware.
I think there’s been some relaxation on that more recently (I know at least with Nintendo there has), but it’s not that odd that a supposedly earth shattering technology have those guidelines.
* Devices must be kept in an area with restricted access to those on the NDA; or * Devices must be kept in a locked office; or * Device must be chained to the desk; or * Device must be covered with a cardboard box at all times
Keeping AR glasses in a safe doesn’t seem too outlandish.
I think that's enough in practice, and in our case an audit would be quite expensive because international flights.
I can understand the case with videogames, for pre-release dev kits, but maybe it's too much as well.
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/hololens/buy
Other people commenting on this are spot on. This is standard operating procedure for new hardware with the sort of attention that Magic Leap has.
- Theranos
I don't see how that analogy applies here when the entire device is being given to actual companies and with restrictions merely because Magic Leap wants to control the full PR experience when the product launches.
That PR will come out in some fashion in the near future, and it won't require a whistleblower within the company to leak it and risk losing their jobs.
I wonder how long a company can continue without ever actually testing the market?
I think one of the superpowers a startup has is that early on nobody gives a fuck what you're doing, so you're free to iterate quickly and boldly. You find out which of your brilliant ideas are brilliant and which are big mistakes.
Magic Leap's hype/secrecy combo really cuts against that. Apple gets away with that because a) they have more money than God, and b) they mostly enter markets after other people have broken trail for them (e.g., iPod, iPhone, Apple Watch).
It's perfectly plausible that Magic Leap will come out with an interesting but fatally flawed product, like the Amazon Fire Phone or Google Glass. Amazon and Google can shrug and move on, but Magic Leap may not have the cash to recover.
Or, possibly worse, they come out with something like the Segway: really interesting tech that everybody is excited about, but with little practical use once we get past the gee-whiz phase. For a company that has already raised $2.3 billion, that could be fatal.
I've never heard the Segway described like that. I'd describe it as "incredible hype over something enigmatic that completely evaporated the moment it was revealed".
Dean Kamen is a very sharp inventor, and the origin of the Segway was in a radical wheelchair improvement that he designed. (It was a four-wheel design that would "stand up" on its two back wheels to give the user similar height to a standing person. It could even climb stairs! [1])
A lot of the hype came from luminaries who had seen or tried the Segway and were opining on it themselves. The technology was really neat, and is cool to use. At the time, it was plausible that it might change a lot. In practice, though, it turned out to be mainly a niche product, because we already had pretty good solutions for getting people from place to place.
And that last bit is important. It didn't completely evaporate. I often still see a flock of Segways for guided tours when I'm in Golden Gate Park. Segway still exists, and is still producing a variety of models.
But you're right that the hype got out of control, and the vast difference between expectation and reality harmed Segway's brand. That could definitely happen here.
Companies need to be huge before this before founders get's into the 10+ million dollar range, but even VC do this: http://avc.com/2018/01/taking-money-off-the-table/
Further, it's often encouraged as founders that take out enough money not to have significant financial concerns are more willing to aim for the fences.
User testing has clear limits. The context of a user test is usually something like, "Assume that you have bought one of these, and assume that you're trying to do X. See if you can do X with this." If you're assuming those things, you can't test them.
This is in contrast with what startups do, which is just launching something to see if the market gives a shit. Apple is a good example of that, too. Look at their first product:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_I
This computer didn't have a keyboard, a monitor, a case, or a power supply. But it was a clear minimum viable product: people bought it and used it, while making it clear they wanted more. A year later, they launched the Apple II:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_II
These days Apple would never launch something so rough and experimental as the Apple I. Instead, as with MP3 players, smartphones, and smart watches, they were content to let other people pioneer the space and then swoop in once the market was proven.
Magic Leap is trying to be as slick as 2010s Apple, but that cuts them off from acting like 1970s Apple. That could work if they're correct on all their key design and market hypotheses. But it's a giant gamble, and unlike 2010s Apple, a failure could kill them.
This used to be the case and might still be compared to most other products, but that value keeps diminishing more and more.
I would certainly welcome an increased focus on "it just works" again as opposed to "it looks flashy". I enjoy using Apple products a lot for various reasons but it became hard to overlook some issues, especially when it comes to software.
Their practical use is limited to places where cheaper, simpler alternatives can't be used — this basically means places you wouldn't use a bicycle or electric scooter because of the collision risk or space constraints, like shopping malls. Even in large data centres and huge warehouses people would choose bicycles over Segways — a dedicated indoor bicycle is cheap and quite low maintenance.
I'm suspicious of your thesis that Segway price is the main problem. Electric bikes and Vespa scooters cost about the same, and I see far more of those around San Francisco than Segways. The only Segways I see outdoors in SF are people on a group Segway tour, which suggests that they are more valued for novelty than practical benefits.
Zuck didn't spend 2Billion on VR to play games, it was a bet that they could move from VR->AR->Thing that replaces smartphones.
Google didn't put 500million into ML because they seriously think that next year people are going to be walking around looking like Shaq here:
https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--bmAwzL8...
The first iPhone was released just 10 years ago and it's now the dominant form factor for computing on the planet, but like every other technology it will come to an end.
Something more capable, more integrated into our lives, etc. will replace smartphones (just as every other technical innovation since the history of time has been improved upon and then replaced).
The right frame of reference to look at AR systems today is as very early prototypes for what that smartphone replacement tech might look like.
It's easy to armchair quarterback. It's not like there's a formula for product success.
Let me explain how this works as a marketing person. You create hype for your new thing any way you can, for example if you ask developers getting the device to put it in a safe, all of a sudden you keep yourself in the news, because its stupid. and the news media loves stupid and strange things, they get people to click on it and promote it on HN.
I am not saying this wont be a great device and im excited for this product honestly, but artificial hype like this needs to be seen for what it is. Let them prove their product through its actual technology, SDK's and consumer love, then we'll see.
I wish Magic Leap all the best!
Magic Leap has all the power in this situation, the press are nipping at their heels and will eat out of their hand. Magic Leap can control what gets released and when, and build it up to maximize output in big "exciting" blasts. Instead of raw information trickling out of 3rd party companies which they have no control over.
Choosing to take advantage of that power (which few companies have) is just basic common business sense.
And the arguments against it are as silly as "if you've got nothing to hide, than you have nothing to worry about", as if there are no inherent risks of not being in control of your own information, even when you're doing nothing wrong.
Haven't heard anything specifically about the Hololens or Oculus, but there are a good number of Hololens-derived headsets (ie using the same inside-out tracking tech) in the wild under the Windows Mixed Reality marque, eg the Samsung Odyssey. The Odyssey has the same resolution as the upcoming Vive Pro (1440 x 1600 per eye).
https://www.thurrott.com/hardware/90780/microsoft-accelerate...
Am I not right here, or is it supposed to be "a usual caveat"?
Edit: Or alternatively, "an unusual caveat."
2. Every time I have heard "an historic", that person pronounced the "h". It might have been downplayed slightly, but it has always been there. They are using "an" because it's an (historical) idiom, even though it's grammatically incorrect.
The cool / terrible thing about English (and other "international" languages) is that if there is a way to pronounce something someway, someone will pronounce it that way. Once we then define grammatical rules based on pronunciation of surrounding words, we then have to deal with the fallout of those rules. I have my opinions of pronunciation, but if the majority start pronouncing "usual" as "oosual" then I'll just shake my head and grumble a bit while accepting that the language has moved on. After all, Americans say "Aluminum" and there's nothing I can do about it!
[0] http://www.chicagomanualofstyle.org/qanda/data/faq/topics/Us...
You can see past coding sessions here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCbeboI7dMETmnUro91AxJZA
I was skeptical of Magic Leap too, but their SDK is very real. Maybe seeing it in action might dispel some of the concerns.
The Apple Newton had a really nice software stack too.
https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/7lj7sf/i_am_the_journ...
Do we know what the likely price of the consumer models are? I can easily imagine dev kits staying around $2000 for a while, but that might be different to the consumer versions.
i.e. If you imagine writing an SDK for a bag of hot air, it seems like it would turn out very different from what you see there.
It's also small and tasteful. That caught me too. I didn't expect a big company to put out something elegant, but they seem to know what they're doing.
You're right though -- it all comes down to the hardware. We'll found out later this year.
The HoloLens is quite good as a wearable device. I've tried one. It's much lighter than an HTC Vibe or Oculus Rift, despite being self-contained and wireless.
And just because Nokia had a smartphone before iPhone doesn't mean you could dismiss it just as a "touch screen phone with an operating system and apps".
I wouldn't be surprised if those laws get more lax next.
I don't recall exactly how it happend but I think I was reading an article, then went back to the home screen and selected add comment from the dropdown of that article row. It may have also been user error.
I think augmented reality is going to come from a very different direction, the medical-eyesight-healthcare world making products for old folks that can't see properly or remember stuff.
Not trendy companies making games for young people who can see perfectly and don't want to be seen with clumsy gadgets bolted to their heads.
The 'apps' could be quite simple, imagine any product barcode gets read and you can just look down to read the ingredients and what-not, using a few physical buttons on a watch to skip sections.
The payment for such a device could be on healthcare, glasses that magically make reading possible despite needing reading glasses. Maybe they tell you when to take your pills and keep track of your toilet visits too. Perhaps it is too obvious a product for the games crowd, a 'basic' set of AR glasses that just let people read stuff and get directions. That 'stuff' being real world, e.g. product in supermarket, or messages, e.g. that picture of the grandchild just posted to the family channel.
We simply do not have the information to even consider, let alone form a conclusion.
Release is this year. Pricing will come at time of preorder.