People have a bad habit of blaming the ACA for insurance prices. The ACA failed at its goal of making individual health insurance affordable, that is true. But it didn't cause that problem, and it did something extremely important to mitigate it.
Another thing-- the data on prices are a flat out LIE, the government is also making massive payments to the insurance companies directly -- their prices don't reflect their actual costs.
No matter what you think about prices, though, the most important thing the ACA did was create a nationwide requirement for guaranteed-issue insurance. However expensive you think insurance is, it's more expensive to be flatly and irrevocably restricted from buying your own insurance at all, which was the status quo ante of the ACA.
Stating "YoY" gives the false impression that this is the average increase over some number of years. However, this was simply the projection for 2018 and the article provides the reason:
"The price increases are fuelled by market uncertainty and the elimination of key federal payments to insurers."
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/decision-to-kill-obamacare-p...
That price increase was engineered by the GOP by cutting the payments from the budget followed by the Trump Administration's "finding" that they had no authority to spend the money.
I genuinely hope your posts are just virtue signaling created by a desire to appear as one of the faithful.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2016/07/28/overwh...
I know ACA is good for some, but goodness did it remove my interest in remaining insured. I’m sure you can cite data that tells a different story, but my experience, as well as that of my peers, says ACA has been very bad for those actually paying the bill unsubsidized. I fully blame ACA for this.
Rising insurance premiums aren't good for anyone. The ACA set out to fix the problem of rising insurance premiums and (I think) pretty much failed. But it didn't create that problem; 5-digit annual premiums for a family of four were a reality prior to the ACA --- or, at least, they were in Chicago on the small group market.
The subtext to these discussions though is whether we'd be better off without the ACA. No, we would not be. We would lose guaranteed-issue insurance, so a sizable fraction of families wouldn't be able to get insurance at all, and, from the available evidence, we would at least have the same rate problems we have now, and (according to some studies) have worse rates. Obviously, this subtext is about the GOP's health care rhetoric, and I'm not wild about opening up a political salient in this thread, but let's at least be clear: the idea that you can repeal the ACA, do nothing else, and get lower health insurance premiums for real coverage is sleight of hand.
The net bill was over $110k if I hadn't had insurance and wanted to go to one of two ankle specialists in the city I live in. With insurance, $5k-ish.
Before, we had the (very poor) demand elasticity of people paying everything they had and then maxing out every credit source, and predictably prices rose to around that point. Now, we have no demand elasticity at all, and prices can be expected to rise well above the average person's net worth + credit access.
If you look at any microeconomic equilibrium chart, you'll see that the price is held in a balance between people buying and people holding off due to price. When the good is healthcare, the human cost of "holding off" is very high, and usually involves inability to pay. Unfortunately our economic system tends to fly off the rails if this balance is disrupted, no matter how noble or urgent the cause.
Elsewhere it has been said: choosing between bankruptcy for your family or cancer care for your child isn't an actual choice, it's two loaded guns pointed at your skull. One held by the hospital, the other by the insurance company.
The reason first world countries choose universal healthcare is that healthcare is a human right. Full stop. It is not an economic issue. If you want to get economic about it though you'll lose because as it turns out a healthy educated populace is more productive than one that loses productive families here and there to lances of bankruptcy from the unpredictable nest of human disease.
We were literally using lives as an economic mechanism, but now that we're not doing that we need to use something else in their place. The price of healthcare will continue to skyrocket unless we find something a little less horrifying than other people's lives to use as a balancing weight; although I won't claim to know whether it would be more possible to design a working market system or socialize it successfully.
Priority 1, stop making Soylent Green out of people. Priority 2, re-establish the food supply in a better way, because we need to eat.
Humanity survived just fine without real healthcare and healthcare is not essential to a fair balance of power b/t the government and its citizenry.
Universal healthcare needs to be argued on the economics of the issue because that is the only practical way to make it sustainable. The "feel good" stuff about it being a human right will fail when stress is applied to America and stress is coming. The US, frankly, has peaked and it is all downhill from here.
I suspect that the current UN rights council may be an example of this in action. See: the track record of the members on negative rights, the number of positive rights on their list of rights.
Frankly a single payer system is simpler and faster. But this is an area where American politics and market rhetoric just lead to terrible outcomes.
You have no right to "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness", you have a duty to not interfere with other people's life, liberty or their pursuit of their happiness. But even that is a negative duty. Positive duties, like paying tax, are more like the right to healthcare.
So this should be looked on in similar fashion. Do you have a right to healthcare ? Well, answer the question : do you have the duty to take care of others' health problems, completely irrespective of how it affects you personally (for instance, what if it takes up 90% of your time, while still not doing much more than slightly prolonging a miserable short life for them ?).
These questions are not so simple and knee-jerk statements like "right to healthcare, period" are not helpful and will do nothing but get us into a lot of trouble.
No country has "right to healthcare, period". That does not exist. For the obvious reason that it simply isn't feasible. Providing a named (but finite) list of treatments and medicine free of charge if diagnosed by a licensed physician is the furthest any country goes. In some cases that list is pretty short.
Capitation brings the insurance industry's incentives (ie. only work with healthy people) away from insurance companies and onto doctors. What is a diabetic to do when doctors just directly refuse to treat them directly (or delay, or ...). And before you say it won't happen because of hippocratic oath, we both know this rule will force doctors to do that for 90% of their time.
For such doctors and facilities getting people with longstanding illnesses that are just going to come in time after time after time and need expensive drugs and treatment, like MS patients (multiple sclerose), is going to be financially debilitating. That's not reasonable and absolutely not what we want.
As for replacing doctors with "workers" (presumably he means not even nurses), I feel like shouting at him. Doctor's salaries are high, but don't represent a decent fraction of expenses. You could give everyone in medicine a 100% raise and the cost would be in the low single digit percentages (2-3%). Let's face it, this is not what we need to save on. And if we are to save on it, let's PLEASE do it the right way: by subsidizing the training of more doctors, not by replacing doctors with idots.
What I keep hearing about US medicine is that 2 things are necessary:
1) legal changes limiting legal liability of doctors (doctors pay 5 digits per month in insurance in some places, money that is paid by patients but is definitely not going to better care). Something like the European system where a doctor can only be sued before a judge if he's found by the local ethics/hospital/national medical/... board (staffed with exclusively other doctors) to have gone overboard.
2) limit the cost of medicine and increase choices (e.g. mandatory licensing, importing of generic drugs, or just outright force the use of a generic alternative if available like a lot of European countries are doing)
This is the only point I agree with Mr. Sachs.
and for a bonus (just for bringing sanity into the system):
3) Outlaw any and all advertising for anything medicinal (something like if it requires a prescription, advertising it = jail time)
“Universal right” is simply that which people feel all people ought to have.
> Humanity survived just fine without real healthcare and healthcare
“Universal healthcare” as a right is simply the right to a certain minimal level which is dependent on technology and resources. The fact that their have in the course of human history been times when no real healthcare by the standards of the early 21st century isn't material to that one way or the other.
> healthcare is not essential to a fair balance of power b/t the government and its citizenry.
That's quite arguably not the case; “government” is an a abstraction than the ultimately boils down to the subset of the citizenry with the most power in allocating resources, and it's quite arguable that that floors for allocation of resources in several domains, including healthcare, are essential for fair balance of power between that subset and the rest of the body of the citizenry.
Further, your implicit argument that a “universal human right” must either be something that prehistoric humans could not survive without or relate to balance of power between people and government is simply a statement of your political values, not a boundary on the what “makes sense” as a universal right.
> Universal healthcare needs to be argued on the economics of the issue because that is the only practical way to make it sustainable.
The actual concrete floor at any given time must be, but then again since every OECD country which guarantees universal healthcare, regardlesa of the details of the system, does it for less total (measured by absolute expenditures, per capita, or per GDP) than the US does spends on healthcare (and some don it for less by all three measures than the US spends in the. smaller public portion of its system alone, let alone the private expenditures), the economics aren't really an issue when you are talking about the US system.
I'm sure they said that in soviet Russia too. It's all good to say X,Y or Z is a right until you actually cash in on that right.
I mean you don't even have to look to the soviet union, what is goinig on with the VA? Obama was working to fix that smaller universal healthcare system from actually just waiting years for people to die but I haven't heard any good news comming out of there recently.
The rest of your claims are just nonsensical in this context since your just assuming universal healthcare works because the government decrees it to be universal.
I can probably predict the response but on the chance I'll be surprised - why can't America solve the problem when Taiwan, Switzerland, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, Canada, Finland, Norway, etc etc etc have or nearly have?
(I have received healthcare in several of these countries and an readily prepared with counterpoints to the inaccurate "healthcare isn't good / lines are long in those countries" arguments, fair warning)
Healthcare is a non typical market and the cost of a persons health is irrationally high to that person.
Everyone on a boat has twenty dollars and absolutely needs an EpiPen to live. You have a supply of EpiPens and want to get as much of their money as possible. There's zero elasticity between 0 and 20 dollars, but you better not charge $21!
Now, imagine that there was only one person who needed an EpiPen, but everyone else was willing to pitch in as much as it took to help them out. If the supplier of the medicine was perfectly evil, the price would be $20 times the number of people.
Perfect self-interest is a pretty good model of any industry, including pharma, so I think this is a good picture of the situation. The ACA was careful to keep something like a market system in place, which is why we're faced with a problem that can be understood with microeconomics.
Healthcare is known to be a market which has non standard policy imperatives
The cheapest, simplest and most effective system is single payer with everyone in a single pool.
Every major first world power achieves better outcomes for lower costs than America.
Your theoretical premise would have merit if this was only theoretical, and we had no real world evidence that this was a bad idea.
I really feel like this discussion is suffering from false-dichotomy-itis: I've actually been very careful to avoid saying anything beyond my point, about (say) whether or not single payer is a good idea for the US.
This might be the case if hospitals had to actually show their prices rather than sending bills after the fact for a price you aren't allowed to know when you consent to treatment. It might also help if competition were allowed, but for hospitals it is pretty much not in a lot of states. To open a new hospital in many states, you need a "certificate of need", which is basically a document demonstrating that you won't be competing with the existing hospitals. So much for "free market health care".
Later, after some health issues <cough> first child diagnosed with T1D <cough> we were grandfathered into the private plans and the premiums did not change but the deductible was pretty high and the network was not great.
Later, and this was still pre-ACA - California had guarantee issue health insurance with little or no rating factor adjustment (surcharge) for companies with 2-50 employees. So I hired my wife and we switched to one of those plans. Premiums around $800/mo and $2k deductibles. That was about the time when our 2nd child was diagnosed with T1D.
When ACA passed all CA guaranteed issue small business plans disappeared and everything switched over to marketplace. Silver plans for $2,000/mo for the family and $2,000 deductibles with $12,500 our of pocket max. Basically every spare penny went to healthcare, and then some, and we were slowly drowning in debt because of it.
Finally, I stepped off the treadmill, stopped taking a salary, and we switch to Medicaid. And went from spending $35,000/yr out-of-pocket after tax on healthcare to spending $0.
ACA unquestionably increased premiums and total cost for my family substantially, until I stopped taking a salary and went on Medicaid at which point ACA was a god-send due to Medicaid expansion / cost-sharing reductions.
For a healthy family of 4 ACA is horrifically expensive and acts as an extraordinary tax on middle class families who start earning too much for the subsidies. The marginal effective tax rates are so high, the CBO doesn’t have the guts to publish them with the ACA subsidy phase-out included in the calculations.
However, the fact remains that my health insurance options have generally been worse and more expensive since ACA passed. This year, thankfully, I am on employer healthcare plan instead. Because in my area, with the ACA, there is one provider only, and none of the plans are good, and they're all more expensive than before, and at least 2x what I was paying pre-ACA and with MUCH MUCH higher deductables.
Your options are fewer now because you have to be bigger to able to absorb the costs of the extremely high cost individuals such as those with anemia and premature babies and cancer patients.
Everything you’re experiencing is because more people are getting access to healthcare, and instead of everyone paying for it via higher taxes, we’re paying for it via higher premiums and deductibles.
Only way to bring relief is through more supply of healthcare, which means more doctors (they lobby against that) and more medicine (they lobby against that too).
One solution is to marry a doctor so you can take advantage of the situation.
e.g. the US as more doctors per capita than the UK and Canada - both of which have much lower healthcare costs than the US.
As I see it, the ACA was a very middle-of-the-road policy initiative. Building upon a Republican governor's program, namely Romney's in Massachusetts. It was meant to appeal to and help business as much as uninsured individuals. It was conservative in that it didn't throw out the existing system of insurance; rather, it brought new customers to the existing insurers. Insurers became enthusiastic about increased marketshare.
Law consists of two parts: 1) The law itself, and 2) Paying for it.
Republicans made very clear statements about their primary, number one goal (really, the primary goal of their party and their Federal legislative presence) being making Obama's presidency a one term presidency.
The ACA was passed, in spite of their opposition. But they used their subsequent control in Congress to not pay for an essential component. The law provided two years of compensation to insurance companies for excessive expenses resulting from ACA Marketplace plans. The idea was to provide a buffer -- government security -- while insurers caught up on the population's deferred medical expenses and built an actuarial understanding of the population.
When the insurers sought that compensation, I've been told by a professional working in the industry, they received about 15 cents on the dollar.
Premiums shot up. Companies dropped out. Republicans cited the "failure" that they helped create in the first place.
This isn't the only aspect of the situation, but it's a very significant one.
The ACA wasn't perfect. Work could have been done to improve it. Instead, a lot of political effort went into killing it.
Oh, and as tptacek mentioned, it did bring many costs under more control. Something that benefited group plans such as those provide by employers.
You don't hear so much about that, eh? Or the enormous profits that insurers are reaping, in spite of complaints about the ACA Marketplace plans.
P.S. As I've mentioned before, I'm someone who was denied coverage, at all, outright, prior to the ACA coming into full effect. I had a minor condition that a very well respected surgeon would not operate on, while I was still on a corporate group plan. Risk/benefit favored simply monitoring.
That didn't matter. No insurance for me!
(Fortunately, a professional and personal contact in the industry pulled some strings. Something NOT available to most people.)
P.P.S. I should add that some people think that some insurers may have underpriced their ACA plans a bit, initially, eager to maximize their portion of the increase in market size and relying on the temporary government security for protection. I don't know whether this is true. Even if it is, no law/program is perfect, and the two year timeframe placed an inherent limit on this behavior.
When the repayments came up so short (15 cents on the dollar), this might have magnified the corresponding premium increases somewhat.
But all this was accounted for by the ACA law, including limiting its effect. It just wasn't, subsequently, paid for by the Federal budget process.
And if it is true, it reveals insurer's enthusiasm about the ACA. They wanted the increased marketshare.
Instead of working with this momentum, it was thrown under the bus for political reasons. As I see it.
I'm curious as to why you say "the ACA is horrendous" rather than "The income cutoffs for the ACA subsidies are way too low" - I mean, it seems obvious to me that if you make a median salary and have a family of four that you need some sort of health insurance subsidy, but I don't know where the ACA subsidy lines are, or even if they vary per state or not.
I personally am in favor of just expanding medicare or medicade so that everyone can use them to get minimal health care if they need it. I mean, sure, if you have money, you probably still want private insurance on top of that, just like retirees today, but we've got a reasonable system for giving everyone over 65 a minimal level of care, and healthcare for younger people is a lot cheaper than healthcare for old people, so it seems like a big rich country like ours should be able to cover that bill.
but I don't think that is politically possible. I think this last election was in some ways a referendum on the ACA, and I would interpret the results as saying that many, if not most Americans think that you should only get healthcare if you can pay for it. Which seems weird to me, because as you point out, if you make anything like average money, healthcare for a family for three or four is impossible to pay for without a subsidy.
>I'm seriously considering returning to wage employment for health care benefits.
In the days before the ACA, I'd just get a full time job every time COBRA and CAL-COBRA ran out, because I couldn't get a plan at all without. I mean, I was happy paying $6K/year just for me, and that's what I'd pay under COBRA or CAL-COBRA but, once that ran out, nobody would sell to me. Maybe I wasn't asking the right people, but it wasn't like they came back with high numbers, they just said they couldn't cover me. It was weird, because while I did have a chronic condition or two, none of them were particularly dangerous or unusual.
In 2016, I decided to take off from work and travel outside the US. I did what I thought was the responsible thing and purchased a travel insurance plan. In total, I was gone for a year...I had an amazing trip.
When I got home, I wanted to sign up for insurance again. But since it wasn't a life event, I wasn't eligible to enroll until the open enrollment period. And when that time rolled around, I wasn't eligible for the subsidized plans because I hadn't gotten a job yet and my monthly salary was $0/mo. Nevermind that I'd done enough contracting work during my trip such that if you divided my annual earnings by 12 to arrive at a monthly earning, it would've easily qualified me for a subsidy to stay on a plan that let me see my previous doctor. But I did eventually get signed up for Medicaid for the month between open enrollment and when I found a job, so...yay?
Then tax time rolls around and, it turns out, you need to be out of the country for 11 out of 12 calendar months to qualify as a non-resident. Since my trip didn't start on Jan 1st, despite being out of the country for an entire year, I didn't qualify as a non-resident for either 2016 or 2017 and had to pay the ACA penalty for the entire time I was gone because I didn't buy health coverage that would've only been useful in a country I wasn't present in. And adding insult to "please don't let me get injured", I had to pay a penalty for the time I was uninsured between when I got home and open enrollment.
In short, I feel like the ACA was rushed and they never seriously considered what was right for people not working a 9-5 job getting regular pay checks. By deciding to opt out of the workforce and do my own thing for a while, even doing it responsibly, the ACA cost me thousands because I somehow managed to find corner cases that were simply not considered or poorly handled by those writing the bill.
I think a lot of the bureaucratic issues might be the nature of insurance companies? My (pre-aca) experience was that any lapse in coverage and they don't let you back on. All this 'life event' stuff, I think, was part of how group plans worked back in the day, the rules about when you could change things and when they could kick you off.
I guess what I'm saying is that (aside from charging you the extra tax) I don't think it's worse than it used to be.
Unfortunately, the portion of the ACA requiring states to expand medicaid was ruled unconstitutional. As a result, 19 states have choosen not to expand medicaid, leaving a portion of the population to poor to qualify for ACA subsidies, but too rich to qualify for medicaid.
I should also point out, that the medicade expansion is 90% funded by the federal government starting from 2020 into perpetuity. Prior to then is a ramp up period where the federal government pays an even larger share.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/which-uk-regions...
It’s been nice to see that a well designed system can help people take care of people so humanely.
For a great many Americans, the figure you brush off as not particularly large is an unimaginable amount to come up with for insurance alone.
I agree, $18k for insurance, or $24k, is an enormous burden for most Americans. I was just trying to point out that that the ACA price the parent was calling an outrageous seemed completely inline with every other insurance policy I have ever had, ACA or not. Insurance in the US is just plain expensive, no doubt about it.
see eg https://www.healthforcalifornia.com/covered-california/incom...
My mom pays half of what I pay and she gets family insurance while I get a single person insurance. Her pool is a large grocery store company.
(I just looked it up and, weirdly, average premiums on the large group market in 2017 were higher than those in the small group market; on the small market, they're around $17,000, and in the large market, $19,000).
I pay ~$220-ish a month for my family of three, the company pays $800+/mo. Boy am I glad to work for a company that pays such a large chunk of my benefits, many other places cover maybe 50% of your dependent costs.
https://www.medishare.com/blog/is-healthcare-sharing-tax-ded...
Health insurance prices are a nightmare. Please don't let me come off as sounding like I don't think they are. The goal of the ACA was fix that problem, and though it fixed some very important problems, it surely didn't fix that one.
Repealing really isn't an option (due to the near impossibility of repealing an entitlement) and the public doesn't want that either. I don't know how you would fix the issue that the loss ratios will be more skewed negative since the fact that sick people pay more attention than healthy people for insurance (even when you introduce tax penalties).
https://www.irs.gov/publications/p535#en_US_2017_publink1000...
Basically what I’m saying is the loss ratio for a bigger pool will be much lower than a smaller one. For insurance companies who charge premiums if you are in say a Bigcorp sized pool compared to a small business size pool the bigcorp pool will be larger and can have smaller premiums .
And once you get a condition, you will get NO insurance without the ACA.
And we will all get a condition--it's called age.