Why Earth's History Appears So Miraculous
theatlantic.com
theatlantic.com
If a mud puddle were sentient, it might marvel at how the mud around it was so perfectly shaped so as to exactly match the shape of the water the puddle was made up of. Amazing. Unbelievable. Couldn't be a coincidence, that there's such a perfect fit. What are the chances that this unique shape of the water outline would be matched exactly by the shape of the mud around it. A true miracle, it might think.
Unless the sentient puddle gave the matter just one more moment's thought, in which case it might conclude that the water and the shape of the mud around it matched for no reason other than that the water flowed to fit the mud.
But we don’t know the number of times life has emerged in the universe, except that it is at least 1. Every intelligent life form we are aware of are one “survivor,” but we knew very little about the number of total survivors in the universe. Thus it is a little odd for us to claim that our “survival” is surprising.
Roll the dice. You can't win the lottery if you don't enter it. If it wipes us out, then that is merely the pre-emptive inevitability.
It's a mistake to anthropomorphize AI. Pity is a mammal thing.
https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Paperclip_maximizer
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revol...
So is violence. It is vastly more likely that it will be benign, possibly opting to leave Earth given the chance. It might destroy us unintentionally (consume our resources, our star, take your pick), but the Terminator doomsday scenario is far sillier than pity. Some of the most intelligent humans today are empathetic, either through science or through philanthropy. A causation has not been investigated, but there is a correlation.
That said, I think it's fair to review the history if events, in a butterfly effect sort of way, as interdependent and each built upon the other. Could some other sequence have the same / similar ends? Of course. But let's not be so quick to say, "there are other planets similar to our own, we can not be alone." It's not only the planet but also the history.
You can also use a world-ending device to prove that this reasoning works. Blow up the world with probability .99999999999. Conditioned on surviving, you will then be nearly certain that quantum hell is real- more certain than about nearly any other physical theory.
The other problem is that depending on how you count, almost all observers are actually hallucinating Boltzmann brains. There are duplicates of us, but there are arguably even more pocket universes with hallucinating brains that just very briefly remember being something like us and then die.
So that's not very reassuring.
A fascinating aspect of this I learned about recently was the importance of fire to human development. I always imagined this tool in the context of humans huddled around a campfire for warmth and cooking, but our ancestors actually applied it on a much more epic scale. They burned down entire forests to create open fields where predators couldn't hide and where they could forage for well-cooked critters amid the ashes. Everywhere we migrated, we geoengineered forests into savannas.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter
What is a huge filter is the requirement of a stable climate over million of years. The key to this is the Moon which keeps the Earth's axis of rotation from wandering over a wide angle on geological timescales. The Moon is so large and unlikely (we still don't have a good theory for how it was formed and captured by the Earth) that this alone could explain the lack of other intelligent life in the visible universe.
All the other moons in the solar system are nowhere near large enough to stabilise the planet's axis of rotation.
Can you elaborate on this? I'm a little at lost about what you mean.
0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archaic_human_admixture_with_m...
The consensus from the intro geology classes I've take seems to be that the Earth was hit by a Mars sized object which caused the resulting molten debris to coalesce and differentiate forming our current Moon in the process.
Naturally, that’s only true for a very emotional level of special :) but so far, I’m happy with just the specialness of being a massively complex life form.
One of these, M-Theory is an extension of string theory and is the only theory known to elegantly unify quantum mechanics with general relativity's gravitational force in a mathematically consistent way. It’s not supported by experimental evidence yet, but I’d hardly characterise it as no different from belief in spirits.
http://peterbutler.me/the-shooter-and-the-farmer/
When the members of the Frontiers of Science discussed physics, they often used the abbreviation “SF.” They didn’t mean “science fiction,” but the two words “shooter” and “farmer.” This was a reference to two hypotheses, both involving the fundamental nature of the laws of the universe.
In the shooter hypothesis, a good marksman shoots at a target, creating a hole every ten centimeters. Now suppose the surface of the target is inhabited by intelligent, two-dimensional creatures. Their scientists, after observing the universe, discover a great law: “There exists a hole in the universe every ten centimeters.” They have mistaken the result of the marksman’s momentary whim for an unalterable law of the universe.
The farmer hypothesis, on the other hand, has the flavor of a horror story: Every morning on a turkey farm, the farmer comes to feed the turkeys. A scientist turkey, having observed this pattern to hold without change for almost a year, makes the following discovery: “Every morning at eleven, food arrives.” On the morning of Thanksgiving, the scientist announces this law to the other turkeys. But that morning at eleven, food doesn’t arrive; instead, the farmer comes and kills the entire flock.
-- Douglas Adams
I think everyone is tempted to accept theories that justify the world view he/she hopes is true.
Lots of misleading casualty statements like this in the article.
Still enjoyed it.
If 'our universe' is 'tuned for life', it certainly isn't specifically tuned for human life (e.g. plague, volcanos). Nature offers us no guarantees. Unless we stay in tune with that accord, we will be removed.
“This is a defense against instantaneous, violent death, which you will find was avoided, but anything that sort of maims or injures or mangles you or whatever is still fair game.”
Don't forget also, that dying in a bridge collapse is just as bad as dying in a common car crash, which happens every single day in America. Those non-newsworthy people have families too.