* Holmes started with the best of intentions
* Theranos raised capital from starry-eyed investors that didn't carry out proper due diligence
* Realization set in early on that it wasn't going to work out
* Theranos got scared as so much of their time and other people's money had been invested
* The questions mounted
* Stalling became outright deception
* The realization of the consequences after the WSJ article became starkly obvious
* Theranos got spooked and doubled-down on covering up out of fear
.. but this is all speculation, and we'll never really know.
It does seem though that this didn't turn into fraud (which by the end it's quite clear it was) until late on.
It's a bit tragic, really. It seems Holmes could have come clean early on and avoided the worst of the fallout (but for whatever reason that didn't happen).
That said, from a personal perspective, I honestly hope Ms. Holmes is either a sociopath or was actually in the dark about how bad things were (e.g. her direct reports were lying to her).
It seems like it would be a pretty excruciating mental burden to go into work every day for an extended period of time, knowing your company was inevitably failing, and just trying to keep the plates spinning. Ugh.
That doesn't really make me any more sympathetic to his criminal and unethical activities.
[0] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernie-madoff-happiest-ive-been...
At worst active or passive concealment because they had a large financial incentive that the fraud remain undiscovered.
Given that Theranos didn't IPO, I have a hard time feeling bad for investors (hopefully) taking a loss on this one.
Granted, I've raised an especially unpleasant possibility (as no more than that), especially for consideration going forward; but fraud from other causes is also unpleasant and has to be considered despite being unpleasant and, according to the article, not necessarily an act of commission. To quote: "But the fact that Theranos was a gigantic fraud doesn't quite mean that it committed fraud." You've considered it, nonetheless, and I think that's reasonable - as speculation.
I may have completely misunderstood what was being suggested here though..
The exception is that this science had already been explored, for decades, by the major companies that specialized in this technology. There simply was nothing to show that worked, yet, so there was nothing to commercialize. And the big players aren't going to publish their interim research, or Holmes wasn't motivated to actually do the homework.
She wasn't the first to think of it, but had enough traction (combined with a vaccuum of commercial products) to convince people she had, or had some mystery secret sauce that was going to make it work.
The fact that Theranos hired Cass Grandone, an Abbott Diagnostics exec that pioneered the previous generation of microparticle immunoassay/ELISA technology, and Grandone walked away after six months shows that he knew their science never worked, and was never going to work.
There were two companies that I simply couldn't understand, at all, from media reports in the last couple decades. One was Enron, 'tother Theranos. Turned out there was a reason why.
Among startup founders, puffery is endemic. You have a vision and you try to talk it into being. Whatever you're doing probably won't work, but you can't say, "Well, there's a 90% chance we'll fail," because nobody gives you money or labor then. You have to develop this (unjustified) confidence, and a deep understanding of what people want to hear. Silicon Valley culture definitely encourages this.
To succeed, one also of course has to develop an equally deep understanding of the reality of the business domain. But as we see with Theranos or Hampton Creek or uBeam, you can get surprisingly far on vigorous self-promotion and creating the appearance of success.
The thing that really keeps me awake at night is that there are surely a lot of companies that faked it nearly as much but managed to find a real business before things caught on fire.
This Vanity Fair piece provides a fair amount of character background: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/elizabeth-holmes-the...
I decided in undergrad that Honors programs exhibited a lot of the same characteristics. Kids in those tracks are treated with velvet gloves by professors, come to believe their own superiority, are inevitably unprepared for the real world / a colleague proving them wrong.
Hype trains create their own RDFs that effect even the subjects.
False positives are often more dangerous than false negatives. This is why the "fake it until you make it" trope can come back to bite you in the read end.
I would like to comment jokingly here with the saying "If you wish to [defraud] go into politics." But let's not support people in that cause.
Seriously, in this case it appears to me it was more and more a series of cascading lies that had to be added to cover the original lie. Which either stemmed from hope, misconception or lack of due dilligence.
If she thought actually her idea was going to work, and nobody raised a flag from her peers, faculty, ..., I think after some point the weight of capital invested made the executives follow the "fake it till you make it path".
I think in that case there was a lot of emotion, pride and "our name is on the line" that came into play.
However, in that case I wonder, if it is believable that major investors did not do their homework? Or are they also part of the game. Cass Grandone bailing on such a promising project should have been a red flag for any serious investor. I bet in that case, a lot of major investors knew and chose to follow the path. In that case they are accountable.
If the story reported about Tyler Shultz is right that means that George Shultz, and his peers, knew but turned a blind eye. In that case, I wonder if Holmes ended up as the scapegoat just to keep the boat floating a bit longer (or even recover). In that case her mistake was writing down a lie in an official document and signing it. Alas, I see clues everywhere that the whole board and investing body are complicit in this deception.
http://micheleincalifornia.blogspot.com/2016/05/theranos-cul...
I think it's entirely plausible that there's something gender-related going on. Women are often seen as less tough than men.
Yes, feedback is generally hard to get. But this situation really blew up crazily. It was valued at $10 billion at one time and was a whole lot of hot air.
My argument is that the "Gee, golly, whiz I am talking to a charming, pretty girl!" factor dramatically magnified the problem and allowed it to get blown far out of proportion, more than would have happened with a male CEO. I can't think of any other debacles of this proportion. This is one whale of a debacle. And I think the gender of the CEO is a contributing factor.
That doesn't mean it wouldn't have been a debacle with a guy at the helm. But the essence of my argument is that it would not likely have run on for so very long and hit such crazy big numbers before the bubble burst if the CEO had not been a pretty, charming young woman.