Britain expels Russian diplomats over poisoning of ex-spy | Hacker News Reader

Britain expels Russian diplomats over poisoning of ex-spy

thehill.com

67 pointsLuisOrtiz82 comments

There is a book by one of the people who worked on the "novichok" agents which describes in detail the story behind and the chemicals themselves, including the exact formulas and some synthesis details.

https://www.amazon.com/State-Secrets-Insiders-Chronicle-Chem...

It doesn't sound like something non-state actors could manufacture easily.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9OOLBN0j7c

Makes me wonder what kind of people have devoted their lives to developing nerve toxins like this. Horrible.

Two things that greatly concern me.

1. President Trumps response (and I am not a hardcore anti-Trumper) has been very weak. Many here are extremely disappointed.

2. The leader of the opposition is not supporting the government position and is propagating doubt far harder than is appropriate. There should always be some doubt in these situations but to immediately suggest this is a plot to frame Russia is something else. Rumours of mutiny are spreading and the majority of the Labour party directly and indirectly criticised his position during session.

Highly concerning situation. I truly hope Trump comes out with much stronger language in support of what we consider a top ally.

> 1. President Trumps response (and I am not a hardcore anti-Trumper) has been very weak. Many here are extremely disappointed.

I don't see fundamental difference from U.S. government killing its citizens without trial in drone strikes.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/23/us-justificati...

He did today by congratulating Putin for his election victory. Thanking a dictator for sham elections is quite strong. But then Trump is always congratulating dictators while criticizing allies.

Why is it that ex-Russian oligarchs/kgb/persona-non-grata who end up being killed are mostly in exile in the UK? While I know there is a big community, you're as far as possible while still being in Europe, why not just move to the US or the Caribbean or something?

There are other suitable parts of the world to be exiled to and maybe the US would be a safer spot for you to enjoy your wealth while being relatively more 'safe'. Granted, if the FSB(really the KGB) want you killed it doesn't matter where but UK seems like an easier opponent to push away than the troubles that might rise from US gov.

The US is pretty close to Russia as well, don't forget. Some parts neighbor it.

I'd posit that the UK is a lot safer (less guns, murder etc). I wouldn't rate the Caribbean equivalent of MI5 to protect you.

I don't think for a second that if you're in exile because you're on Putin's bad side that you're ever thinking "oh boy should I walk down this road? I know theres hoodlums always messing around it". You're always thinking "Oh snap, did that guy look Russian? When will Putin send for me here? Am I safe?"

So in short, idk what 'less guns, murder' have to deal with the KGB. Btw, i don't think getting guns in the UK is an issue for KGB agents.

Another Russian exile, Nikolai Glushkov, died this morning in London.

It could just be a massive coincidence, however there do seem to be a lot of coincidences to write off if we are to assume that the trail of dead Russians does not lead to Russia.

So they do another hit after another high profile hit? Why?

I see far more motive to disrupt Russian elections and the Russian world cup than I see motive for taking out two Russian exiles who have been out of the country for over a decade.

Why? Because Russia is an international bully/mob. They are going after people on their hit list because they don't have to fear the U.S. intervention. Clearly, Trump is not going to do a thing. So now is the time for assassinations in the U.K. The country and NATO are at a weak position because the U.S. probably won't help sanction and retaliate Russia.

Maybe because we gave them a midnight deadline, and this is the reply?

To know exactly why they might be knocking off people would require a good inside knowledge of the current realpolitic, not just looking at elections and the world cup.

These deaths are not the only recent ones that are being linked to Russia here, off the top of my head, there is also the January death in Guernsey of a Latvian who was assisting in Ukraine.

In total, the home office has said that there are 14 recent murders on UK soil that it thinks are probably down to the Kremlin.

Blitzkrieg

This guy was in Russian jail, they had enough time to hang or poison him.

That doesn't send the same "we can get you anywhere" message, though.

Well it's not like he was hiding. His daughter was working in Moscow and visiting him often. He served his time in Russian jail. It's different for example from Mossad that was killing the terrorists from the Munich Olympics massacre. This was "we find you anywhere" thing.

A Putin documentary was recently released http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43365800

It was presumably recorded just before the spy was poisoned.

In the documentary, Putin says he can forgive most things, but never forgive betrayal. He talks about it in a context of his cabinet, but he is also an ex-KGB agent and he was similiarly against Snowden (although he gave sanctuary for geopolitical purposes).

It is quite plausible that the 'we will get you if you betray us' is a message to Russians who might have wavering loyalties.

Spy prisoners are useful to trade, as Skripal and three others were traded for Illegals Program spies in 2010.

So many deaths happening in London. Must be something in the water there.

So from looking in to this Glushkov gave evidence in the case Berezovsky v. Abramovich.

Berezovsky committed suicide in 2013 (Berkshire). Take that however you please.

"Russian spy case could spell trouble for Abramovich and Chelsea"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-spy-case-could-sp...

(pay-walled, but you can read the first para)

Russian gangsters and other ne'er-do-wells of the 90s still carry old grievances and will continue murdering each other until they are all gone. Since Britain provided the richest of them with a playground, it is not shocking that they are continuing with their modus operandi on a smaller scale there.

As for Skripal, he allegedly blew the cover of 300 Russian agents. That is a lot of people with a personal motive. Perhaps an investigation is in order before Britain and Russia tear their relationship apart over this.

> That is a lot of people with a personal motive

How many of them have access to nasty chemical weapons? Gangster types manage to settle scores all the time with guns, knives or whatever.

Well, the 300 were Russian agents in 1990s. Many of them are probably still are and are better connected than they were back then. So probably a lot?

In Russia, all of them?

Easier to conceal a few milligrams of poison than a gun or a knife.

Putin and friends probably knew who and when but set them themselves at a comfortable distance.

An investigation is underway and has found the Russian government culpable. Maybe the Russian government should have thought twice before poisoning a British citizen on its own soil and tearing apart their relationship with Britain?

Or hacking election systems and political campaigns and funding extremist and secessionist political parties in the US and EU. And all of their other aggressive actions in recent years.

Russia is a rogue state.

If you were a decision maker in Russia, why use a chemical so rare that anywhere in the world it appears would directly implicate you, and also kills a subject quickly? Revenge at a level like this-- killing a high ranking KGB informant under UK protection -- would be slow and painful. It would be done using methods that weren't branded Made In Russia into the hides of the victims.

This entire story smells of conspiracy.

So you can simultaneously deny it (as you can't politically take responsibility for it), and leave people in little doubt that it was actually you. The only motive I can see to kill an old ex-spy (who by now could have leaked any information) is to send a message to your current spies, that defecting will mean you and your family get killed.

No point being the tough guy if no one knows you're the tough guy.

Being implicated yet not having any definitive evidence against you is the point of the exercise.

Your response is worse than tinfoil hat territory: ignorance of the history of Russia, Soviet Union, FSB and KGB, and Cold War; and a preference for beliefs over the available facts, as a result of cognitive dissonance.

RT the very same week said this is what happens to people who are traitors to Russia, count on it. Have you watched any of the recent interviews with Putin about this? He laughs when asked, and says he doesn't care while also saying the people involved weren't government people. This is a very clear message, yes we did it and so what? What are you going to do? Huh? What are you going to do? Exactly. Nothing.

And that has in fact been UK policy for over a dozen suspected hits. https://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/from-russia-with-blood-1...

Russia is risking the necessity of a disproportionate response, an unfair response, just like any playground bully. It's not enough to just punch them back. You have to wail on them, break the nose, make them bleed, and most importantly? Embarrass them. Only then do they stop.

I just don't get it.

a) Why would Russia do that?

b) Why would they do that in a way that would finger point the blame on them?

The most obvious reason I can think of to kill defectors with a signature poison (like nerve agents or Polonium-210) is to send a message to anyone thinking of defecting.

I wonder if Russia has renewed interest in doing this, because of their recent antics, and politically dangerous knowledge their agents may now have.

Hmm. I wonder if there were some recent defections that we haven't heard about?

Doesn't seem reasonable to do that after he gave up all the intel. Doesn't sound like a good reason to me.

Russia could have killed this man years ago when he was in their custody, they instead used him for a spy swap and even then took years before deciding to kill him. There are one of two things going on, Russia is trying to be a nusiance in the same way by flying jets near Britain's airspace. It can't go to full scale war because both are nuclear powers, but wants to show people not to mess with it. The way MI5 works is completely different, something will happen in Russia and no one will know it's them that retaliated. I'm surprised people haven't capitalised on grilling Corbyn on if he thinks nuclear disarmament is still a good idea.

This is what is going to happen

Russia will blame everyone and use the usual whataboutism arguments, we already had Russian ambassador on CNN yesterday trying to float conspiracy theory that US done it because Russia destroyed all their chemical weapons and US has not (i kid you not)

Sanctions will be announced by western countries, but not implemented (whatever dirt they have on Trump must be good)

Everyone will forget and move on

Few years later proof will be found, but by that stage no one will care, case in hand Russian antiaircraft technology "falling" into rebel hands and shooting down a passenger plane a few years ago.

Trump may be refusing to enact new sanctions (despite passing with bipartisan support) for some “unknown” reason, but the EU doesn’t need his support to implement any new sanctions.

Sending off diplomats won't hurt Putin as much as sending off McMafia style oligarchs. Unfortunately UK has no guts to do it.

Someone's gotta keep those London real estate values high. It's a win-win for UK landowning elites and foreign money launderers alike.

[EDIT: changed my mind about posting this, sorry]

That's because the street cops don't have firearms.

The diplomats are probably the more liberal-leaning people who actually want to maintain normal-style relations.

The Foreign office claims to have expelled “undisclosed spies” and not regular diplomats.

Why they let undisclosed spies in in the first place?

It’s a quick, symbolic first move, likely to be followed by more severe financial consequences. I think the largest here is going to be that it lights a political fire under some asses to hasten disengagement from Russia. The UK is already consuming less Russian gas, and in general between this, meddling in elections, Crimea, and Syria, it might be thst Europe in general seeks to financially disentangle from Russia.

Isolating Russia killed it once, and the Russia of today is a shadow of its former self.

The UK has no incentive to mess up the relations with Russia if they're going ahead with brexit. They need trading partners. Morals, law and ethics tend to go out the window when money is involved. Just look at the relationship Saudi Arabia has with most western nations. Do you think it would the same if they were a dirt poor country?

They have the incentive of their own citizens being exposed to nerve agents, polonium, and who knows what else. I don’t think “if brexit” is the spur it was last year either, given the sheer number of backbenchers who seem to be maneuvering for another referendum. Russian trade isn’t as valuable to the UK as EU, US, and CA trade either. Over it all, China is getting much more cozy with the UK (Hinkley Point anyone?) while Russia is moving away.

The UK doesn’t need Russia, long term, especially with the rise of China as an economic force.

And what would be the legal basis for sending them off?

If Putin did what is alleged, we kind of know he's capable of this being that he can tell the rest of the govt what to do and has in effect extrajudicial powers.

The UK, it's expected, runs its government differently.

Huh? How on earth would it "hurt Putin" to expel oligarchs who ran away from the Russian state in the first place?

An the UK has no guts to do it because it collects rich crooks from all over the world to spend their money in London and prop up the UK economy.

They didn't run away, they just sent their families away. Oligarchs still control large percentage of Russia's natural resources. Putin needs them and he will feel pressure from them if they can't travel freely and can't continue living their lavish lifestyle.

They can have all the lavish lifestyle they want in Russia, as those that reside there already do.

The idea that they would put pressure on Putin is silly, it's the opposite, Russia in fact puts pressure on those who don't want to repatriate. That control of resources you are talking about can be a rather uncertain and fleeting leverage as many have painfully learned on their own example.

There are many hazards in Russia even for the most powerful oligarchs. Remember Berezovsky or Khodorkovsky.

That's what I said in my last sentence, so I guess you agree with me, otherwise I am not sure what your point is.

Some powerful Russian oligarchs permanently live with in UK: Abramovich and Usmanov come to mind first. Former oligarchs like Khodorkovski and Chichvarkin should not be expelled, of course.

British intelligence have labeled the poison as “military grade” and “of a type developed in Russia.”

I've seen no evidence whatsoever that the alleged attack was carried out by Russia.

Novichok agents were developed in the 1970s, have been the topic of many publications, and the simple and widely-known chemical structures of any number of them could be made by chemists from any country or group willing to take the risk to make them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent

If Britain is intent on dragging NATO into this, as it seems like it might be, there had better be far more compelling evidence of Russia's involvement than the weak drivel published to date.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/13/nerve-agent-...

Remember yellowcake?

Russia has motive, means, and opportunity. It's not an insane conclusion to draw, and it's entirely possible the decision to blame them is based on non-public information like travel records, surveillance data, etc.

I don't see GP whitewashing anyone. More transparency (regarding the currently non-public information in particular) would be certainly welcome, before doing something that involves more than those two countries.

Russia has motive, means, and opportunity.

So do many other groups.

... it's entirely possible the decision to blame them is based on non-public information like travel records, surveillance data, etc.

Based on the information released to date, it's also possible that the decision is a naked attempt to manipulate the public.

I'd like to think that people would have become more skeptical of their government's use of "intelligence." Sadly, that doesn't seem to be the case.

People are willing to believe this because it falls exactly within the patterns of behavior that Russia has exhibited over the past few years. Considering the events that have been transpiring in other countries and their various brazen actions in the past this assassination attempt seems highly likely caused by Russia.

> So do many other groups.

Most of them aren't doing this, though.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/09/russian-state-...

> Russian state television has warned “traitors” and Kremlin critics that they should not settle in England because of an increased risk of dying in mysterious circumstances.

1. Russia doesn't have a motive. Skripal was convicted as a foreign spy and served a prison time in Russia. Then he was pardoned and exchanged for Russian agents. Russian state doesn't have anything to do with him. 2. If Russia has means to do it in London, we should ask what the British are doing? Why Russians do as they please in London? Looks like British special services suck. BTW, Novichok is not some secret, it was thouroughly studied by US military while dismantling Soviet checmical weapons facility in Uzbekistan.

No details have been released, but usually the first step of investigating a murder is to find out who would want this person dead.

Motive can provide a strong lead.

who would want this person dead.

Among that group would be those trying to foment conflict between NATO and Russia. And it's a pretty big group.

I'll be frank, this whole situation seems really fishy... I don't think Russia had anything to do with this. Not with the elections and world cup within months. It makes zero sense whatsoever. But I also don't feel sorry for them because their past shady and thuggish behavior makes it easy for them to be framed for such acts.

What is it that makes this fishy to you? Why do you think Russia is not responsible? Who else would've done this? Did someone just magically have a rare nerve agent made in Russia, brought it to UK and sprayed it on an ex-Russian spy? Gosh, what a freak accident! Or if someone did it on purpose then what is his intention? Why would someone go out of his way to frame Russia? What is the goal? Purpose? Or maybe... just maybe... it is just Russia being Russia and doing shady Soviet style operations.

Mossad could easily be as responsible and they have motive with Syria.

How does Mossad have the facilities and knowledge to produce Novichok? It's not something you can order from Amazon.

Vil Mirzayanov(who lives in the US) apparently wrote the forumula for Novichok in a book available on Amazon.

https://twitter.com/mashant/status/973930996918865920

"It's the Russians... unless it's anybody else who got the formula from my book (Kindle edition is only $8 on Amazon), Novichok whistle-blower Mirzayanov tells AFP"

"The only other possibility, he said, would be that someone used the formulas in his book to make such a weapon."

(I personally find it a bit difficult to believe they would actually put the formula for dangerous nerve agent in a book but that's what's reported)

>I personally find it a bit difficult to believe

Quite the skeptic aren’t you.

> I personally find it a bit difficult to believe they would actually put the formula for dangerous nerve agent in a book

As the author explained, knowing what the chemical is doesn't help you much with making it, and such information was already available for Sarin and others. Producing these chemicals is a difficult engineering challenge, and incredibly dangerous. Even in the professional labs, people died trying to produce them.

> It's not something you can order from Amazon.

No, but apparently you can order it from a chemist. A russian banker and his secretary were killed in 1995 by the banker's business partner. With that said, blaming Mossad for this makes zero sense.

A nerve agent made in Russia - that's what we are told. I would believe this only if confirmed by a truly independent third party.

So you're saying the U.K. lied and Russia is telling the truth? Lol, how do I know Russia is being truthful? I would believe this only if confirmed by a truly independent Russian insider. Oh wait, there aren't any because Putin assassinated them all!

I don't believe any government. I simply don't know whom gto believe.

I vividly remember the US presenting "evidence" in the UN to start the war in Iraq. None of the allegations held water.

How about holding these affairs to the same standard as crminal trials? Means, having a verifiable chain of custody, presenting the evidence to public scrutiny and having each side challenging the evidence.

As geopolitics go, it is probably wise to remain somewhat skeptical about what any actor says, even when it happens to be your own country.

> Did someone just magically have a rare nerve agent made in Russia

One of the main points of Novichok is that its made from non toxic precursors, that are easier to smuggle, which you don't mix until you are about to deploy them.

Scary.

You know what makes zero sense? shooting passenger airplanes out of the sky, but here we are...

Just adding explanation to the cryptic comment: Downing of Iran Air Flight 655 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

Erm no more like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

I think the parent may have been referring to the Malaysian Airlines passenger jet shot down over Ukraine with a Russian anti-air missile system.

On the face of it this looks like a USS Liberty style false flag. It would make sense if, once again, Israel is facing enemies on its doorstep and is looking draw others into the conflict to come to their defence.

The novichok agents are not that hard to make and many labs around the world have the capability and the research licences to make it. The factors tying them to Russia would be trace chemicals, similar to how you can trace gold. It'll be easy to lie about the origin so long as no-one else has access to the chemicals to test them.

Theresa May is a very weak position politically. The industrial size gang rape cover ups that came out recently didn't help. The ongoing Brexit negotiation failures are not helping. It's only a matter of time before she's replaced. Picking a fight with Russia makes her look stronger. If you want another laugh, consider that the UK thinks it has a 'special relationship' with the US which will allow them to get a favourable trading deal afterwards.

Until I see more evidence, e.g. play by play surveillance, I will remain unconvinced.

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