"Uber’s share of all ride-hailing trips has generally declined since 2015 as more competitors entered the NYC market, even as its total number of trips has increased dramatically."
That would have me worried, if I was an investor in Uber.
Transportation is going to become a monthly flat rate like a cable bill for local travel via autonomous vehicles and the winners will be the companies that own the fleets and get to charge the tolls.
Owning your own car will be a luxury item.
Owning a gasoline powered car will be an extremely niche luxury item.
Obviously this won’t happen tomorrow but it’s not hard to see the parallels to the horse and buggy industry in this transition.
New players will emerge to be the big names in this new industry and Uber investors hope it will be one of the winners.
Uber won't have self-driving cars for many years. There's no reason to be long on Uber with everything that's happened to it. Especially if Lyft goes public.
Sorry, but I hate it when people talk about the future like a certainty. It has yet to unfold and many predictions turn out to be wrong. I definitely would not bet against car ownership, especially in the country side.
And maybe there will be an open renting framework where everyone can buy a few cars and put them into the system for anybody to rent for a drive. If Uber does not make the self driving software, what would be their role and strength in 20 years?
And, in any case, full door to door autonomy, in at least most locations, is likely a long ways off. Certainly outside of the relevant horizon for Uber investors.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/04/16/car-bike-or-...
That said the average car costs $34k in the US and lasts say 10 years, that's $3,400 a year. Maintenence, taxes, etc another $1500 at least, that's $5k/yr before you move an inch.
While automatic cars may not get rid of everything, many 2 or 3 car families, especially in the suburbs, may drop to 1.
That's why suburbs exist. Financially, it's a much better deal for families on just about any axis.
Depending on the car, gas is probably between about 20% and a third of a car's operating costs (which are typically in the 30 cent to 60 cent per mile range). Although there are a few vehicle costs, like excise taxes, that are more or less independent of distance driven, most car expenses will scale with mileage--especially in regions where rust isn't a major issue.
- Uber/Lyft would cost about $5k/year for me, and I live about 4 miles from work.
- Bus $360/year, but it would take 60-90 minutes vs 10 via car.
- Cab $7k/year
By the time you add grocery trips, recreational drives, vacations, etc cars make a shit-ton of sense. Not only does a car save money, but it saves time and provides flexibility. There's a reason our entire society is organized around cars.
We have monthly flat rate transportation -- it's called a car or a bus. There's no model where trips will be flat rate, because the economics don't work and the marginal value of a trip at a peak time is much higher. There are few <1,000 mile trips that are less expensive on a common carrier than a private car.
NYC is big. Really big (like space). It can support a number of wannabes. But you need a certain number of drivers to be able to serve users and the value of Uber is in the areas where you can't support half a dozen wannabes.
For example, I was in Australia recently and discovered that not even Lyft works there (in Perth anyway). This is in a city approaching 2M population and is very much a developed nation (well, except for the Internet).
Think about that: that's a ton of people who are being trained to use Uber. When they travel do you think they're going to pick up whatever the local ride-hailing wannabe app is for some specific city? No.
Uber has a whole bunch of problems but it's clearly a valuable brand at this point.
Well, they're also being trained to use ridesharing generally. It's pretty low friction to move from Uber to Lyft or another competitor. Think of all the other entry points into that market, like Google or Apple Maps (or any other mapping company) for instance. Once autonomous transportation arrives it also moves from an opex to a capex problem, and that changes the barriers to entry, the headwinds to critical mass, and the competitive landscape significantly.
Like here in Nottingham Uber doesn't support the suburbs 2 years after arrival. You can go there with Uber, just not come back, no-one's around.
A local app with better suburb support is ultimately going to win, as if you can only go one way, Uber becomes annoying.
How can Uber not support an area? If a both a driver and a passenger in Goldsport Wyoming both have their apps installed, they can't transact?
At least with other private hire firms you can phone them up and they'll be there in 10-20 minutes rather than just saying no drivers available.
When I arrive in town I don't research which app to download and register with to get the best solution, I use the one that is the path of least resistence, that's firstly uber, secondly a local cab that's on the street or that the hotel will call for me.