The abilities and willingness of certain nation states to wage cyber warfare and make it appear like someone else are so great at this point, that only solid forensic evidence, and usually not even that, can be indicative.
It could be Russian, it could be not. What is really important that only the Kaspersky reported it.
First, you're innocent. What would you do over time to try to survive the accusations and suspicion?
Next, you're implicated in past bad acts. Maybe you were forced to stick malicious code in a past version, or maybe you had a rogue employee. What would you do to try to move on?
Finally, you're an active part of the state intelligence apparatus. What would you do to try to appear like one of the other hypotheticals?
There are other possibilities; people get themselves in all sorts of weird situations, but most of them are some shade of the above.