If dropping out of a MOOC involved a big financial hit, social humiliation, and the loss of a great deal of personal freedom, the completion rates would skyrocket. Completely different incentives.
The reasoning that traditional education is successful because it has high completion rates because of external pressures is a bit circular, isn't it?
MOOCs also come with a number of unique advantages compared to traditional universities:
- They widen access to education to people that aren't able to attend university
- People can take courses they know they might struggle with without fear of flunking them and harming their academic record
- Mature students don't need to make life sacrifices in order to take a MOOC. They don't have the dilemma of whether to up roots and move to attend a prestigious university
I think all educational outcomes should be measured with respect to the answers to these two questions.
K12 schools in extremely wealthy areas can compare themselves to like peers, but comparing themselves to high-poverty areas is a useless comparison. Neither institution would do well under the other's constraints.
For-profit higher ed is definitely the same way.