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Comment by howitworks | Hacker News Reader

If you read this and think "luck is all that matters, how can I be successful?" the solution is proactively creating optionality.

Basically giving yourself the chance the get lucky.

Things like: putting your work online, meeting new people, living in a big city, not buying a house, etc.

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If I can summarize,

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" - Wayne Gretzky - Michael Scott

You miss NaN of the shots you don't take

Working hard certainly doesn't guarantee success, however it defiantly makes you luckier and exposes you to more opportunity. I like Kevin Systrom summed it up (not word for word):

Everyone gets lucky at least once a week. You might find a dollar on the ground, you might meet someone, be somewhere, whatever. What sets you up for success is:

1. Are you alert enough to know you're getting lucky?

2. Are you talented enough to run with it once you get lucky?

3. Are you resilient enough to stick with it once it gets hard?

>not buying a house

How does this help with luck, exactly?

Probably mobility, hence increased ability to seize opportunities as they present.

Being able to seize opportunities (that require relocation) when the chance comes, perhaps? A house can become a boat anchor in those instances.

I bought a house and moved out several months after purchasing it for health reasons. The house was an anchor, that I also feel held me back.

I had to take a number of jobs with higher pay, that weren't beneficial to my career. Almost every decision was can I pay for this house as well.

Outside of my special use case. It's an anchor point in your life. I like this job but it's further away from my house. I like this job but it's in another city. Etc.

In another universe you bought a house in an area that had a housing bubble and the price appreciated by 100% in a couple of years. You sold your house and retired in Mexico working on fun side projects.

Not buying a house may decrease mobility for some, especially single people. But folks who have spouses and/or kids tend to be more anchored to the community regardless of whether they rent. They have jobs and schools and friends that are hard to move away from.

Also, buying a house can be an opportunity itself. Although the new tax law makes it somewhat less tax-favored as an investment, it still offers the ability to escape capital gains taxation on up to $500k (married) of gains. There are other federal and state benefits that can make the overall purchase decision attractive.

So for some folks, yes a house can be an anchor. For other folks, they're already pretty much anchored, and the tax benefits can outweigh the downsides of incremental anchoring. Also, you can't get evicted...

> buying a house can be an opportunity itself. Although the new tax law makes it somewhat less tax-favored as an investment, it still offers the ability to escape capital gains taxation

This is what I was thinking. There's nothing stopping a person from moving and keeping the house and renting it out, often at a profit over mortgate+fees+repairs+etc.

You lose optionality when you commit your capital to an illiquid investment. That is, you no longer have the option to spend money on things which may have a higher ROI. Any type of commitment loses optionality.

Update: this is a great podcast episode on using optionality to your advantage (http://investorfieldguide.com/wolfe/)

There's a saying I like: "The harder I work, the luckier I get."

If we're playing a statistics game, the best way to pull ahead is to create the most opportunities you can have to be lucky. By working hard, you are providing yourself with more opportunities to be lucky. You can still fail and get unlucky, but that's an unfortunate part of life. Though it is pretty unlikely that you'll flip 50 tails in a row.

Disclaimer: I don't suggest using this strategy at the slots, your odds are just not good enough.

There a famous song from an old Soviet movie. The song called "If you don't have an aunt"

"If you have no home It won't be set on fire And your wife won't leave you for another If you don't, if you don't If you don't have any wife Don't have any wife....."

Original with English subtitles https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50CV0C4ox-k

A bit of self-promotion. I wrote an essay about this. Perhaps it's worth reading for those interested in this thread: https://hackernoon.com/a-guide-for-getting-lucky-in-startups...

How can I be successful if I have no talent?

Everybody is good doing something.

I'd rather put it as everybody has the opportunity to develop their talents and skills.

Talent is overrated. The ability to work hard is much more valuable.

The ability to work hard is itself a talent, but I'd agree that it's more valuable than most.

You are good at what you do frequently. If what you do frequently has low RoI in terms for satisfying your desires, you should stop doing it and do something else.

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