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Comment by compiler-guy | Hacker News Reader

Those seeking a much more sophisticated retirement calculator, where you can set nearly every parameter, such as rate of return, amount saved, and nearly everything else, should checkout firecalc.

You can select different withdrawl rate strategies, different investment strategies, deferred compensation strategies, different investment mixes, and many, many other things.

The interface isn't as pretty, but it is unbelievably sophisticated.

https://www.firecalc.com/

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I second the motion on firecalc because it really helps you visualize in how many 30 year periods historically you would have gone to zero (which is obviously the thing everyone most needs to avoid). The 100 year averages are useless as they don't encapsulate realistic investing lifetime chunks of around 30 years, the firecalc approach gets around this with the 30 year increment parameter (which you can tweak as well). It's a better way to approach the problem.

Another more detailed one is cfiresim

http://cfiresim.com/

I love "retirement end year" in this...aka death.

I can certainly picture the dev frowning at the screen trying to think of a way of not just saying "bucket kicking date".

I opened, there is too much info for my small brain to grasp and closed it. :-(

It models a bunch of different possible investment returns to show you how your money would fare over a long period.

Best to figure this stuff out sooner rather than later, your future self will thank you. Don't bury your head in the sand on retirement. I ignored retirement planning until I was in my mid 30s, I wish I thought about it more before then.

Read "A Random Walk down Wall Street" and start investing.

+1 for A Random Walk Down Wall Street, it was really eye opening to see how unpredictable the market really is.

It's worth noting that this is targeted at FIRE folks - people who want financial independence (don't need to work to live) and want to retire early. To be able to retire 10+ years before the average american, you want to have a much higher degree of confidence that your financial plan can sustain you for 30/40/50 years. That requires much more complicated financial planning.

Or you can just max our your 401k, IRA, HSA, save enough of what's left over to make sure you can have a comfortable retirement at 60ish. The math for everybody else actually isn't as tricky as it seems for mid-to-high income folks. It's generally more about reigning in spending than fancy spreadsheets.

It's applicable math and a good check for anyone who wants to retire.

You are correct that reduced earnings period and a longer withdrawal period does increase risk for early retirees, though.

That's sort of the point. The reality is complex and the future is unpredictable. Simple calculators give false confidence in their results.

This is a great tool for showing people what risk actually means..

Is there anything on how to figure out what your retirement goal should be?

Like how am I supposed to estimate costs I will need in retirement to know how much I need to start with.

The firecalc page has a link to US averages [0]. I haven’t used it myself, so I count vouch for its utility.

[0] https://www.firecalc.com/real-cost-of-living.php

A good guesstimate: 1. Figure out your current lifestyle expenses (you can track this over time if you use mint.com or other websites) 2. Subtract your mortgage if you plan to have it paid off by retirement 3. Add in fudge factors for healthcare expenses and increased or decreased discretionary expenses, depending on the lifestyle you think you will live

As with any planning, you can stare at the numbers forever and not feel satisfied. There is no one true answer.

Your lifestyle/spending in your 20s and 30s has little to do with your retirement lifestyle/spending. Especially if you're rasing children...

And is that an argument not to plan at all? Of course you can't pinpoint an exact figure, but it still pays off to plan even on a ballpark figure.

No....

I did not say don't plan at all, just think about the lifestyle you may have in the future, not the one you have now.

The normal optimistic number is a 4% yearly WD rate, so 25x yearly expenses saved. I’m a believer in no more than 3% withdrawal, so at least 33 years of expenses.

Am I missing something? The calculator only shows how long my money will last given a spending rate and starting value.

There are many additional places to enter information.

Immediately below the banner at the top of the page are links to several other pages: "Other Income/Spending"; "Not Retired?", and so on.

was just going to suggest this. I learned a lot using firecalc.

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