Russia's Putin reveals 'invincible' nuclear weapons
bbc.co.uk
bbc.co.uk
Hmm, all future systems too, eh? One might almost think he was exaggerating, but it was reported seriously so I suppose he can’t be, right?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WU-14
https://thediplomat.com/2016/04/china-tests-new-weapon-capab...
In addition to the maneuverability aspect, my understanding is that such weapons also target an altitude that current US antimissile systems aren't designed to operate at. IIRC, there's a gap between the top altitude of one of the systems and the bottom altitude of the other.
So, short of force fields and teleportation, there is no defence.
The Americans knew this when they were developing the technology in the 50's/60's, and axed the project in the interest of not encouraging the Soviets to make the same unstoppable doomsday weapon.
So obviously the only reasonable solution is to develop a system to shoot it down way before it gets near you. To say that such a system can't be developed in the future is not short-sightedness or a lack of imagination, but simply propaganda.
It's not the big explosions that are a problem in nuclear war - it's the fallout.
No, I'm pretty sure those are definitely a problem.
> it's the fallout.
That's also a problem, but a thermonuclear ground burst is going to produce several orders of magnitude more fallout than a nuclear ramjet.
It would suck to have a large area contaminated, and hundreds or thousands of people might die, but that’s still way better.
It's a lot worse to have the on-target thermonuclear detonation at the end, so, no, it's not “pretty much as bad” to shoot it down. It's still bad, sure, but it's a huge difference in how bad.
But, yes, it does reduce the utility of missile defense, and is exactly the kind of thing that opponents of Bush’s decision to withdraw from the ABM Treaty were worried about encouraging.
Like knock it into space, have it explode out there. Is that possible?
(1) Is the nuclear arms "race" still on? Ie, Is the US still playing a game of my offence/defence is better than yours with The States?
(2) does this count as a new bar or milestone or somesuch, and if so when was the last "milestone." Ie, something that changes the strategic dynamic between major powers in a somewhat meaningful way.
2) don't think so. Some leader bragging about some 'invincible' weapon before the elections is not a big deal.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Ballistic_Missile_Treaty
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Ballistic_Missile_Defens...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_De...
I don't thing ABM defenses really change things. Russia can throw 2000 warheads at us. Can we stop them all? No way. But would we have a chance at stopping one North Korean nuke? Yes.
So I think this is only destablilizing if Russia and China decide that it is. If Russia is looking realistically at the situation, there is exactly zero chance that the US will willingly take the amount of damage that Russia could cause, even with ABM defenses reducing the damage.
Yes, USA is saying that it has to come up with something like this to counter rogue states and I can believe that. But why should Russia/China or any other country keep their part of the mutual nuclear disarmament bargain in that case? (ABM defenses is part of the deal here) Everyone has a different view on how to enforce peace. There is actually a theory in international relations that the safest earth can get is when everyone have nuclear weapons capable of destroying everyone else.[2] And it is part of a neorealist theory so Russia and China are pretty "realistic" in their approach. To be honest the safest way for any country is to have such a weapon that can crush the earth if used. Is it safe for humanity? No. But it is definitely the safest way to ensure your regime.
"The US had to do something like this because of North Korea" Well, USA never did anything about Israel, Pakistan, India. There are 10+ more countries "being one screwdriver's turn" from the bomb. Why bother now? And here is another POV: Initially ABM defense was advertised to stop Iran ballistic missile development and USA sold lots of Aegis parts to Europe/Turkey/Saudi Arabia. And Russians freaked out about radars in Poland covering most part of western Russia and backed Iran... And I think they had their reasons for concern because Poland wasn't even in range of Iranian missiles at that time. And it goes on and on, but anyway it pretty much started the new race on a global scale. Doesn't matter who was the first: India/Pakistan/NK/Iran, ABM escalated it to a completely new level. Btw i doubt many ppl know that it was Pakistan who started NK nuclear development in 2002.[2]
"But would we have a chance at stopping one North Korean nuke? Yes" And that's the real danger. If someone in Japan or South Korea think the same, that they are truly protected with this shield, they will have strong desire to influence/provoke North Korea/ try a regime change... And that can cause a full scale war with nuclear state. The point here: is it really secure or just an illusion of security? And btw North Korea probably has more that just 1-10 or even 100 nukes at this point.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_peace
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea%E2%80%93Pakistan_r...
Under current circumstances, neither Israel nor India are going to even try to attack the US. Pakistan might be tempted, but I believe they don't have a ballistic missile capable of reaching the US. So there was less reason to do anything about them. (Iran, now, is more worrying.)
> If someone in Japan or South Korea think the same, that they are truly protected with this shield...
But I don't think anybody believes that. Could it stop a North Korean nuke? Hopefully, yes. Is anyone confident enough to want to try it? I doubt it; nobody believes that ABM defenses are anything like 100% reliable.
> And btw North Korea probably has more that just 1-10 or even 100 nukes at this point.
I think it's about 10-20 warheads. Do they have 10-20 ICBMs that are operational? I doubt it, but I don't know for certain.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma#In_intern...
2) It's hard to tell. The standoffs have been (fortunately) much talkier. Periodically, the US makes noises about nuclear arsenal modernization, smaller tactical nukes, 'theater missile defense' etc. Similarly, the Russians announce unstoppable super-missiles. There's always the risk these moves could lead to a full-blown nuclear weapons arms race.
> Yet when President Trump called on Congress to “modernize and rebuild our nuclear arsenal” in his State of the Union address last week, he did not mention his administration’s rationale: that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has accelerated a dangerous game that the United States must match, even if the price tag soars above $1.2 trillion. That is the latest estimate from the Congressional Budget Office, one that many experts think is low by a half-trillion dollars.
The CBO report is at https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/re... .
Sure, the US has fewer warheads. It's still something like 5,000 warheads which is far more than is needed for any sort of retaliatory strike.
It is what's needed if you want a first-strike capability to take out all of Russia's hardened launch sites.
"Makes noises"? Aren't we actually doing that, and have been doing that, for decades? The most recent is super-fuze. Quoting https://fas.org/blogs/security/2017/03/super-fuze/ :
> Under the cover of an otherwise legitimate life-extension of the W76 warhead, the Navy has quietly added a new super-fuze to the warhead that dramatically increases the ability of the Navy to destroy hard targets in Russia and other adversaries. ...
> “As a consequence, the US submarine force today is much more capable than it was previously against hardened targets such as Russian ICBM silos. A decade ago, only about 20 percent of US submarine warheads had hard-target kill capability; today they all do.” ...
> In the article we conclude that the SSBN force, rather than simply being a stable retaliatory capability, with the new super-fuze increasingly will be seen as a front-line, first-strike weapon that is likely to further fuel trigger-happy, worst-case planning in other nuclear-armed states.
There are three factors to consider with "unstoppable super-missiles":
1) The US pulled out of the ABM treaty. This was predicted to destabilize things, because it implies the US might want first-strike capability, with the ability to prevent a retaliatory response. Since the US upgrades mean we can take out hardened targets, that means Russia will have to switch to launch-on-warning rather than launch-on-impact.
2) There has always been a strong argument against ABM systems because they are extremely expensive, they don't work well, and the counter-measures are cheap.
3) The "unstoppable super-missiles" are what you must have if you believe that a retaliatory second strike is a deterrent against a US first-strike attack. We have only to look at history to see how high-level people in the US have wanted to use nuclear weapons. The current president appears to be one of those.
On the flip side, consider the nuclear drone torpedo. This cannot be used as a first-strike attack because it can only destroy coastal cities. It cannot take out the US nuclear triad. It therefore more effective for retaliation, by the threat of destroying millions of Americans should the US decided to nuke Russia.
I think the current arms race started in 2002 when the US pulled out of the ABM, followed by the "upgrades" which started under Obama. (The research for those upgrades of course started long before - it's the deployment I'm interested in.)
I think adding super-fuze to US nuclear weapons - "In the case of the 100-kt Trident II warhead, the super fuze triples the killing power of the nuclear force it has been applied to. https://thebulletin.org/how-us-nuclear-force-modernization-u... - is an example of not just of the "mere existence of a nuclear arsenal", but a determined effort to tilt the balance very much in favor of the US.
Why did we need that upgrade?
I think the US has developed its systems far enough in that direction that Russia is now forced to spend money to keep up, as otherwise MAD is no longer effective.
And that's why I call it an re-uptake of the arms race.
What would you expect to see if there were a new nuclear arms race?
There are about a zillion reasons you can come up with for that, to match the entire spectrum of political outlooks and levels of cynicism, none of which have to include 'to start a new nuclear arms race'.
What would you expect to see if there were a new nuclear arms race?
Well, for one thing, I'd expect the race to include at least two parties. If Russia truly believed something on the US side is actually putting the global strategic nuclear balance in question, I imagine their response would be more robust than running a missile-naming competition on the internet.
The reporting on these issues always stresses the risk of starting a new nuclear arms race - the NYT piece you linked to does, as has much of what has been written over the last 15-odd years at least. The risk is surely real but this does imply that we have not, in fact, been in a nuclear arms race. So far.
Because I can't think of any.
You mention wanting something "more robust than running a missile-naming competition on the internet". How does the RS-28 Sarmat not count as one example? Quoting from https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/russia/ss-30.htm :
> On 07 September 2016, a defense industry official told Russian media that the mass production of the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, a new multi-warhead, super-heavy missile designed to defeat anti-missile systems, would begin in 2018, two years ahead of schedule. ...
> Russia's State Rocket Center V. P. Makeyev of (Miass) and NGO's Engineering (Reutov) along with NPO Mashinostroyeniyais is developing the new sarmat / Sarmatian heavy liquid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missile to overcome the U.S.’s prospective missile defense system, Strategic Missile Forces chief Lt. Gen. Sergei Karakayev said 16 December 2011. The decision had been made to create a new silo-launched heavy missile that will have “enhanced capability to breach a hypothetical US missile defense system,” he said.
That's exactly what I would expect as part of a nuclear arms race, as a response to US efforts to get ahead in the race.
Do you even know how old American missiles are? They are from 1970-80s. US made no new developments here since 1991, when all ICBM programs were canceled.
Yes, though it's a capabilities race and not a numbers race, mostly. Geopolitical conflict with Russia restarted very quickly after a brief pause at the end of the Cold War, and an integral part of that conflict is jockeying for a dominant position should it come to war (mostly, because being perceived as having such a position is a powerful tool in that conflict without escalation to war.)
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_nuclear_weapons_sto...
Eg, with super-fuze all of our submarines have hard-target kill capability. That wasn't true a decade ago.
The condition was that the boundaries of the Ukraine were respected by the Russians.
So, today the Ukraine is nuke-less. Oh, and Crimea-less.
"You get ships up in the Black Sea, that makes them feel more threatened," the official added.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/19/politics/us-russia-black-...
Imagine Russia sending their warships to the gulf of mexico. Would that be ok?
oh wait, that wasn't NATO, was it?
But meddling into internal political processes seems like bread and butter for any would be superpower. Or are Iraq and Afghanistan invasion somehow not interference with political processes?
It probably won't end well if everyone decides to "one-up" each other, though, similar to how WW1 started.
This is one of few times I've seen "invade" used to describe Russia's actions in Crimea. I find it strange that even western media talks about "annexation" when they usually employ exaggerated terminology for all kinds of trivial events.
edit: I'm not saying the invasion was trivial, I'm saying the media response was/is understated compared to non-events they exaggerate
Russia saw that as a provocation and a breach of previous agreements.
What should NATO do, when Poland asks to become a member? Say no, because Russia has the right to meddle in Poland? Say no, because not upsetting Russia is more important than Poland's future? Say no, because defending the western half of Europe is all we should care about?
If Russia doesn't like everyone wanting to join NATO, it's really easy for them to fix: Stop making everyone feel threatened by Russia.
(Now, in the real world, that may not work, because Russia is paranoid, because of a couple of guys named Napoleon and Hitler who, starting from further west than the eastern edge of Poland, got all the way to Moscow - or within 15 miles of it, in Hitler's case. So Russia has some grounds for concern based on history. Nevertheless, NATO has exactly zero interest in invading Russia. My main point, however, stands - it's Russia's fault that NATO is expanding, not NATO's fault.)
Come to think of it since it worked last time, why shouldn't it now?
The technology is totally feasible, and not even that complex - it's just that it's pretty much the most evil thing man could devise.
"After delivering all its warheads, the missile could then spend weeks flying over populated areas at low altitudes, causing tremendous ground damage with its shock wave and radiation from its unshielded reactor. When it finally lost enough power to fly, and crash-landed, the engine would have a good chance of spewing deadly radiation for months to come."
"Too provocative" was a pretty mild way of putting it.
With a SLAM spewing radiation as it goes, however, you're stuffed either way.
Surely there are no private citizens buying ballistic missile defence weapons and if a nation state had enough resources to consider buying something like this, would they not also have enough resources that they wouldn't be searching for their defense armament online?
If you ride the DC Metro through the Pentagon stop, you’ll see a lot of ads for high-end weapons systems where other subway systems might have ads for lawyers and universities and such. It’s amusing and peculiar.
For the US, if a missile coming from the east is shot down over the Atlantic, radiation would probably hit Europe and Russia rather than the US.
Is INF the treaty you are mentioning being ignored? Is Russia's announcement a direct response to the USA's? Disappointed that recent history hasn't been even mentioned in most reporting around the announcement -- it's a pretty shocking headline to wake up to without context.
[1] https://www.defensenews.com/space/2018/02/02/the-us-could-be... [2] https://www.defensenews.com/space/2018/02/06/will-the-us-tra...
No, the US had nuclear cruise missiles deployable on subs since the 1980s or possibly 1970s (I can't find a good date for introduction of the TLAM-N, only that development began 1972 and it was announced they would be transfered to storage in 1991 and they were retired between 2010 and 2013.)
What your source reports is a recommendation to introduce a new nuclear cruise missiles replacing the retired TLAM-N.
While we could probably dust off Project Pluto and have an arsenal from other comments here, Trump has too much turmoil internally to be trusted with safely navigating a nuclear escalation like this.
By the way, I voted for Clinton.
Edit: typo
I guess this is one of examples of Putin's quest for world domination, right?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/nato-deploys-troops-p...
Imagine US reaction if Putin tried to set up a "missile defense system" in Cuba. Oh wait.
If NATO isn't going to maintain the agreement why should Russia?
The times are changing...
Is that a good enough response for you? Does it make you happy that Putin decided to tear up treaties banning intermediate range missiles and start a new arms race?