Ethereum's security model is totally different: https://eprint.iacr.org/2016/555.pdf If you look at bitcoin based POW intervals, 10 minutes is very close to optimal: https://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1019.pdf
If you think 40% is not good enough, okay, let's target 48%. That's still just ~6.5 rounds per block (~82 seconds per block). Bitcoin's parameter of ~47 rounds per block is clearly overkill; the authors' graphs don't even go that far out (see figure 3).
Interestingly, the first paper you linked mentions that although Ethereum was intended to use single-level GHOST scoring, uncle blocks aren't actually counted toward chain difficulty, so it really has the same security model as Bitcoin. This was also confirmed by an Ethereum dev [1].