It wouldn't be as bad if cars become fully electrified and cars become smaller as they shift from individual car ownership (where you buy a 4-5 seater for edge cases but only use 1-2 seats 95% of the time).
When you order your automated fleet car to pick you up you can say I only need one seat, which will massively reduce car sizes and energy expenditures.
Self driving cars can potentially link up like trains on highways to further reduce congestion and reduce energy use.
On the other hand I could see people whose commutes are 30 minutes tolerating a 1 hour self driving commute especially if it means they are paying 1/2 their rent.
I will never understand how people do this... especially so many of them without car pooling, which means they have to focus the whole time.
I'd easily trade those hours for 100% the rent costs and half the living space.
I have to imagine that there are extenuating circumstances that force people into these absurd commutes.
Self driving cars will be life changing. They can’t come soon enough.
Thus the reduced need for car ownership and all that parking that is now on the market for redevelopment should lower the cost of living in cities which is a huge deterrent that keeps people out right now.
I imagine that there will be some flux in both directions, with the less desirable suburbs being the losers in that equation.
If I was a long-term real estate developer I'd be buying up a bunch of urban parking lots and converting them into charging stations. Then selling a stock of them to Tesla/Uber in 5-10yrs at a high mark-up.
Apartment/grocery stores/office/etc buildings with underground parking could technically lease out their land as well.
It would still very likely free up far more land than is needed for charging, as so much parking space is used for far longer than the average charging/waiting-for-fleet-calls would need. Not to mention the AI space optimization they would utilize.
More like every 400-500km. Even current electric cars generally have ranges in the 350km+ range, and they're getting better every generation. Unless my work provides me free charging, I'll be charging at home where my electricity is supplied by my solar panels.
That means in an urban environment they'll be able to drive for quite a long time before charging... that's interesting as it means even less real estate needed for charging.
The implications of this technology on daily life in the next decade will be nearly as interesting as the deployment of consumer internet in the 1990s. There are so many possibilities, it's very exciting...
[0] https://solarchargeddriving.com/2011/05/13/whats-your-gasoli...
Seems like there will be plenty of fungibility in charge locations.
At a certain level of congestion people think it will take too long and avoid the journey. All this will do is move the threshold even higher. Most metro areas need to look at transit as the solution. Self driving vehicles may play a role in feeder routes but the idea suddenly congestion will be solved because of self driving vehicles is crazy; and IMO will actually be the opposite.
There are good reasons people don't want to be crammed on a bus or train with other people all of the time.
The problem is when congestion is so bad it's suppressing trips there is a middle ground when improvements are less obvious. That and city's need to be designated to absorb highway traffic or highways just end up as expensive parking lots.
The other thing missing from remote work tools is collocated workspaces (can’t fit that on your monitor). Existing VR tech solves that problem though.
Instead of working on Google Docs in your office, you’ll work IN Google Docs in VR, and your coworkers will be there nearby, and you’ll be able to talk face to face without leaving your workspace.
Less edge cases to deal with, and since most people are not pilots the drone must be 100% automated, turning it into something more like a horse-drawn carriage from days of old. Since air traffic is more tightly controlled they do not have to compete much with piloted aircraft. No pedestrians to worry about, minimal possibilities for accidents. Flying away and parking somewhere away from your location is not just a feature – it's mandatory since our world has no accommodations for consumer aircraft parking. Since most landings can be done on the rooftops of tall buildings, it's conceivable that we may reduce the amount of time we spend walking on dangerous or dirty streets, and also opens the door for more creative skyward architecture and retail. And of course there's the magnificent views you'll get of a city even in a boring daily commute.
I will probably not own a self driving car given current technology, but I can't wait to see the age of true flying transports for the masses.
First of all I thinkg battery energy density will have to multiply a few times.
Traffic will have to be actively monitored 24/7 to avoid collisions, avoid vehicles going through no-fly zones.
Crashes would also be a lot worse, possibly crashing into houses, schools, hospitals.
Not trying to be overly critical, just a fun thing to think about.
I believe this is wildly inaccurate.
We already have the infrastructure for self-driving vehicles. How do you handle a mechanical failure of your personal flying drone? Does it drop you to the ground or on a group of pedestrians nearby? This surely only increases anxiety of people walking below. What is the recommended height for a self-flying drone? 100's of ft above ground? Not to mention there are no drones (to my knowledge) that can legally transport a human today in 2018, how long until we develop/regulate that technology? (I understand it's the same with self-driving vehicles but we've been working on this for _years_ already and things have improved significantly in that time period)
While I like your outside the box thinking, I disagree with the notion that there are less edge cases than self-driving cars, at minimum it's on par with the same amount of edge cases as self-driving vehicles.
Whirling blades with an engine powerful enough to lift and transport a human plus cargo whizzing through downtown areas, and everyone owns one? It only makes sense in sci-fi movies.
Recommended height? It's already laid out, just look at aeronautical maps.
The technology will come. What we require is more battery density and perhaps better materials. Prototype drones for human transport are already out there.
It is certainly a lot less edge cases. But again, when it comes to aircraft people seem to exaggerate dangers and make it seem like a big deal. Aircraft are safer than cars when you know what you're doing.
Because humans also don't currently fly drones to get around, you don't have to deal with all the human cultural and behavioral quirks that come with traffic. Good luck with your self-driving car on India's streets.
I have come to believe that by the time self-driving tech is truly viable at level 5 autonomy, personal drone transports would have long been viable before that.
Very few tall buildings can accommodate aircraft landing pads. There isn't space due to HVAC machinery and antennas, plus they weren't designed to support extra weight.
Also, if everyone is commuting to work by landing on rooftops, then streets will no longer be dangerous: rooftops will be because they will be crowded with drones dropping off thousands of people.
Perhaps if there was a dedicated lane where self-driving cars would move slowly like a train that would be more plausible. Or maybe even freeway driving, no stop and go traffic though.
If I own my own self driving car, rather than summoning one, I think you'll see a big shift in designs because it will be your or your family's space.
In an early episode, a character summons a roaming [empty] driverless hover-car taxi [hailed with a transmitting credit-card-sized hailing device no less] to help an injured compatriot on his way. Watching the scene was surreal; when it first aired no doubt it was totally SF, but now it's actually within the grasp of reality.
The entire vehicle's interior was, basically, Limo seating. No room for any driver at all. The car lands, they get in and close the doors, and the car takes off all 5th Element but driverless to their destination -- one character laid out injured, the other consoling and helping whilst sitting upright.
I just have to believe that interior configurations are going to change similar to this.
If self driving cars are individually owned then there may be a trend towards a different experience but that may come much later after we have self driving cars hitting the road, as the cost and risk to operate one makes it unfeasible for the manufacturers to sell them at scale to the general public instead of operating their own ridesharing fleets.
We can see the beginnings of this for those of us who ride transit. Reading, "sleeping", A/V media on tablets/phones... and then to make-up and phone calls... anything reasonable and semi-reasonable in public that's not active driving [and non-reasonable for some of the fringes].
I really believe the US will get self-driving cars first, as a first form of pervasive public transportation. I call it a second-world technology effect: just like we in Eastern Europe have much better internet and cellular service (not to speak of online banking) because it was built after the first-world countries already heavily invested in obsolete technology, the US can use the latest technology (SDC) in building its first public transportation system.