I don't think it's as straightforward as more demand. One generation provider offers free EV charging on weekends[1], which shifts some charging to an offpeak time.

Another confounder is that EV's can be used as storage devices dumping power back to the grid[2].

1. https://www.chargepoint.com/products/home-station-incentives

2. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-ev-chargers...

Exactly what I came here to say. As electric cars become more common I wonder what that will do to demand. I can't imagine that in a future where almost every vehicle is electric that the demand will be offset by LED lightbulbs.

Certainly the article's failure to mention electric transportation is strange. If the TVA's plannng also ignores EVs, that would be very strange.

Timeshifting of demand is going to cut into the need for peaking power plants, shifting more demand into the base load.

Where did you get this number?

All the studies I read pointed to a figure of 35% at most.

Yes, this was a really strange omission as was the threat of any stronger regulatory controls on fracking for natural gas. Both could change the landscape heavily again in the next few years.

At least some calculations suggest that they will balance out the efficiency savings. Electrification of the heat sector is another big unknown.