I can't tell whether the people in this thread claiming this will be the downfall of China are serious. Do you really believe that, or do you just want it to be true because you're afraid of China?
Why - will such a civil war spill beyond China's borders?
An invasion of Taiwan would likely garner a similar response. Heightened tensions, international sanctions that don’t seem to do much, and yes, increased military presence in nearby allies. Outright war would be costly and endless and frankly unwinnable.
> Outright war would be costly and endless and frankly unwinnable.
I'm not sure why you think this is the case. If the US were to try to invade China, then yeah it would basically be unwinnable. But why would the US do that? They would only be trying to contain them. If they could help thwart and invasion and then shutdown the Chinese navy, then they would basically already have won by any reasonable measure.
The U.S. doesn't have much history promising Ukraine defense as it was part of the U.S.S.R. during the Cold War. In contrast, Taiwan was practically there since 1949.
Taiwan's economy is multiple times the size of Ukraine's and is comparable to the likes of Saudi Arabia. To not defend Taiwan would send a very bad signal to all American allies that unless you're worth more than Taiwan, we'll sell you out. Assuming China continues to grow more powerful, this also means South Korea would be in danger as well. This is not even accounting the fact that if China controls Taiwan, China will control a majority of sea lanes to Korea and Japan. If she wished then she could interfere with oil supplies to those countries.
Plus the U.S. already goes great lengths to restrict China from acquiring U.S. technology, much of which has supply lines and partners in Taiwan. Letting China take Taiwan would mean a massive change unless you think we'll just accept that every Taiwanese company now will be forced to put backdoors for the Chinese.
I know you're joking, but ...
it was a cyber war, and it's still happening :)
North Korea is so fragile that it would follow shortly thereafter. South Korea (a US ally) would have a huge mess on their hands.
Japan (another US ally) has got an ocean to protect it, but given the huge shipping volume in the region, shiploads of refugees would try crossing anyway.
So that means that the US would have even more reason to intervene than in other conflicts.
I don't know how much Russia cares about it's eastern territory, but it's unlikely they'd sit around doing nothing.
By now there are 4 countries with nuclear weapons involved, and I haven't even mentioned India and Pakistan, who usually don't appear to be the interventionist type, but they have a common border with China. Who knows how they might react.
Basically, any war involving China is bound to be WW3 levels of bad.
In China's specific case, India and China are fighting over borders. China and the US (allies) are running into issues over resources in the South China Sea. Also Russia and the US both are increasingly their navy presence in the Pacific. It's a powder keg waiting to go off for sure.
Xi is a fine leader — I don't believe problems would start with him. More so his successor who may have decades of rule.