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But apparently fear of extinction doesn't lead people to leave their cars at home or to waste less...

Seems like the only reactions these fears cause are misguided and radical ones.

there is a prisoner's dilemma type of effect here where, when other people are "defecting" (wasting fossil fuels and packaging), it's rational for the individual to defect as well.

I don't get that, though: there's little to no penalty in this case to avoid "defecting". Things may cost a little more for you, but it's not nearly as drastic or dire as the expected outcome in the actual prisoner's dilemma if you don't defect.

consider that the cost of complying is immediate and borne by the agent, whereas the penalty of defection is discounted according to the degree to which people believe it can be postponed (insofar as they consider the penalty at all).

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