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Comment by randomerr | Hacker News Reader

The Law of Unintended Consequences will:

* Put companies out of business that produce or import said goods

* Reducing availability and increasing cost of medical goods that use plastic because the aforementioned companies no longer exist or are importing products

* Put pressure on manufactures to use alternate materials (bamboo and glass most likely) causing shortages and rising cost

This in the long run is going to put an overall strain on on the country that is going to drive commerce away and make a black market. Just look at place that bans or places a sin taxes on certain products.

Soda Tax in New York that made people go to New Jersey:

https://nypost.com/2014/06/26/highest-court-in-ny-refuses-to...

Bicycle Tax added because people stopped using cars because of another tax so a new tax had to replace the car tax:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jul/17/first-bicyc...

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> Put companies out of business that produce or import said goods

Tough. Don't go into business ruining the environment. Similar closures would have happened in asbestos, coal, tetraethyl lead additives and plenty of other things we've discovered are a very bad idea.

> Reducing availability and increasing cost of medical goods

That's quite a leap - do you have a source?

Scotland is banning all plastic straws from end of next year. I sincerely doubt there is going to be a black market as a result.

That applies to computers and all of the other un-repairable ewaste generating electronics. All purchases of smartphones, laptops, in fact pretty much all of bestbuy would fall in that category. Can we get a ban on those too?

https://ifixit.org/ewaste

I'd argue that disposable bags, disposable straws, disposable chopsticks, and the like are in a different category because there is a ready alternative which is not particularly onerous to use.

You're quite right. But, how many tech people do you think are willing to inconvenience themselves with a heavy laptop or a bulky smartphone if it meant that they were repairable? My opinion is that the vast majority will continue to line up to buy the latest shiny use-and-throw bauble from TechCompanyX, while railing against coal and plastics. I'm just against the "Do as I say, not as I do" mindset.

Just get apple to sack Jony Ive, introduce a new apple with a rugged brutalist style and make a feature of making it be repairable (with only apple Tm parts).

Only Slightly Joking

Are tech people uniquely unlikely to use plastic bags? I don't really understand the logic here, and a laptop that is appreciably worse seems like the wrong analogy to a canvas bag.

...except none of that happens.

Ireland was, IIRC, the first country to introduce a bag levy. In spite of some gnashing of teeth, the world didn't fall apart, companies didn't go out of business (in fact, they started producing reusable bags), and the result was a net positive that we didn't have a plague of plastic bags blowing around the place. People got into the habit of keeping a set of reusable bags in their car or close at hand.

The same story has been repeated wherever such a levy has been introduced.

I just want to address this:

> Put companies out of business that produce or import said goods

Good! Good. If you are actively contributing to polluting the earth and making it uninhabitable for future generations, then losing your business is probably the least horrible thing that can happen to you.

Agreed. And then new businesses that provide more green and earth friendly products can flourish in its place. It's a net positive afaic

> Soda Tax in New York that made people go to New Jersey: > https://nypost.com/2014/06/26/highest-court-in-ny-refuses-to....

This article doesn't say that. How many people would pay a toll/transit fare and spend an hour on the road both way to get a larger soda?

Indeed, the words "New Jersey" do not even occur in that article.

It's not clear why someone who really, really wanted more than 16 oz. of soda could not simply order two, if they want it so much they're willing to consider traveling to New Jersey. Or for that matter just go to the store and buy a 2 liter bottle of soda.

All the examples you mentioned are preferable to the status quo, with the exception of the NYC soda size cap which is ridiculous (ban the substance or put a limit on the allowable amount in a serving, don't arbitrarily pick a container size and ban it).

According to the article linked, the ban was on any soda over 16 oz. rather than any particular size.

You're painting with a pretty broad brush and ignoring any positive outcomes. Neither of us predicted that when Hollywood studios raised rates on Netflix it would trigger Netflix to become a very successful content producer on their own and that the chain of consequences would see an online bookseller nominated for Emmys and Golden Globes.

Neither did either of us predict that Microsoft's Apple investment driven only by the fear of potentially more regulatory oversight after destroying their competition would trigger Apple's revolution of cellphone market and yield a company so successful it is sitting on billions in cash. Neither of us predicted those things because if we had we'd have put every penny into their respective stocks and neither of us would be wasting time on Hacker News. So (neither of us being millionaires aside) don't assume all outcomes from the law of unintended consequences are negative.

> Soda Tax in New York that made people go to New Jersey:

Hang on, you're telling us you think people in New York City hopped on a ferry, train, or taxi to New Jersey to buy a cup with few more ounces of soda? Instead of just buying a second soda?

Such a claim makes it pretty hard to give any credit to your other assertions.

Maybe plastic waste in the long run imposes a bigger cost?

Just like overconsumption of cigarettes, alcohol etc. imposes a much bigger cost in the long run (in welfare countries).

Well, that tears it. Let's never regulate anything because it has unintended consequences.

I highly doubt people are going to travel out of Taiwan (which is an island, making this inconvenient) or establish a "black market" just so they can have single-use plastic straws.

You should get into lobbying for the plastic industry. They need people like you.

> Put companies out of business that produce or import said goods

You don't have much faith in free markets. They will adapt.

> Reducing availability and increasing cost of medical goods that use plastic because the aforementioned companies no longer exist or are importing products

What detailed knowledge do you have of medical devices supply chains that makes you so sure?

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