If you consider that the browser is where most Electron app users actually begin using the app, you can only expect Electron to be replaced by some native app that runs the same code as the browser. This is the killer feature of Electron.

Having a web app + native app means a huge leap in cost.

Having no web app + native app means a huge loss in user reach.

The only viable replacement would be something like Electron but with a stripped down browser fit to purpose instead of the huge surface-area of Chrome.