To add to this, one other way programming is getting harder is that there is no incremental path to becoming a developer. In the past, you could easily become a programmer by accident. You wanted to edit your MySpace page, google around, learn some HTML and do it. You wanted to mod a game, you started messing around with the game, download other mods, and change them.

I think this incrementally is gone in two ways. One is that programming is so abstracted away from how we use computers that it's almost in a different world. But even if you figured out what programming is, when you actually attempt to do it, the sophistication of our tools make it a lot harder to get started. Everything that makes us programmers more productive: compilers, build systems, package managers, etc make programming less accessible. There is a lack of coherence between all these tools, no one person designed them, they're the product of bottom-up innovation (the bazaar) which has the problem of making things messier.

I think open-source/bottom-up innovation is great, but eschewing "the cathedral" for a wholly bazaar-based approach is making it a lot harder to learn to program.

What I'm working on now (I'm the founder of Repl.it) is taking a lot of these awesome tools and putting a nicely designed experience on top of them. We want to bring back the welcoming cursor that invites you to program the computer and bring back incrementality to programming, you start from a repl, and from there you can move on to web-dev or what have you. You'd be surprised how fun it is for kids to build CLI programs before moving on to build other things. We put together a page where kids can post about what they're building with Repl.it and it's really inspiring to see: https://repl.it/ibuiltthis

I've written more about what I call a "Holistic development service" here: http://repl.it/site/blog/holistic And also here I describe how we went wrong with "Disintegrated Development Environments — How Did We Get Here?": https://amasad.me/disintegrated