My two main concerns:
1) Amazon and Whole Foods: Are they not a concern?
2) Economic downturn: Will people still order groceries at a premium?
So its not a bet, its a holdover cash infusion until the IPO, and is not exactly risky given how mature and well-capitalized the company is at this point.
The only real bet is that they'll be able to IPO before a market downturn, which seems pretty safe, I have yet to see anyone put forth and truly plausible triggers for another large global recession - there are no debt and enforcement chains I can see that would drag the system under again. But I'm not a financial expert, just an armchair economist, and if I knew what would trigger the next recession I wouldn't be posting here ;)
We would observe a productivity increase through wage growth, as would be expected in a high employment environment (high demand for labor, low supply sets price of labor [wages] high) but I don't see anything from my viewpoint within the embedded and IoT industry that will meaningfully increase productivity in the near future. So more of the same we are experiencing now
Unless you see some new tech that will improve productivity, in which case please do share!
Keeping an eye on the US inflation report coming out this Wednesday should provide more guidance on what the Fed may do - if it's higher than expected I think the Fed will probably raise rates by another .25%.
Here's one of my favorite practicing economists giving a bit more insight into the Fed and its interest rate strategy: https://www.newsmax.com/finance/narayanakocherlakota/fed-dri...
that's not an indication of anything. has there been anyone who were able to predict the last few recessions with reasonable accuracy?
there are tons of gloom and doom traders and economists (usually trying to sell "safe" or alternative assets) but i have yet to read any clear, compelling cases laying out what and when to buy when the first domino falls that will set off the next recession. i'd be interested to read anything you've found noteworthy
During a recession/large market correction, you're looking to hold all cash and just buy stocks cheap after they drop all the way to their lowest point (think Ford or AIG in 2008).
The problem with these strategies is that market events usually occur over sufficiently long time frames to obscure their size and direction. Looking back at 2007/2008, Lehman was the obvious "moment" but the market and economy didn't nose-dive instantly to their nadir on the collapse of Lehman Bros. It feels like there was a "moment", but it was only obvious in hindsight.
For example leading up to the 2007 crash the pros that saw weakness in the mortgage market created and bought "credit default swaps" allowing them to bet against mortgage-based securities
I think they are a concern, not necessarily to Instacart but to all of the grocery chains that need to compete with Amazon/WF. Since Instacart already has the tech/infra/domain knowledge to build this service out, Instacart's value goes shooting up.
My wife and I have found that online ordering saves us money. Delivery from one of the local stores (Save-on-foods) costs $8-15. Instead of grabbing random items off the shelves because we're hungry or the store put up an enticing display of sugary cereal, we plan out our meals for the week and only buy what we need. That easily offsets the cost of delivery, while also giving us extra leisure time and saving on gas/vehicle wear & tear.
I'm guessing this raised happened because of Amazon/Whole Foods [1]
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bizcarson/2017/11/08/instacart-...
from an investment point of view, its a bit similar to Lyft vs Uber ... pretty much the exact same business, but there is always room to eat market share.
I'm not sure about the data and large trends for this, but here's my anecdote: Right now Instacart is the cheapest way for me to get groceries. Someone with a gun took my driver's license from me a few months ago, my bike was dismantled by thiefs, and I don't live within walking distance of a grocery store.
Lyft/Uber there and back is $20. Bus there and back is $6 (but with added time and stress). Instacart is $5-6.
Yes, eventually, it will be easier for me to bike there or to drive there, but not right now. Right now the cheapest way for me to get a large grocery trip done is Instacart.
So maybe they could survive. Not everyone is in my position, but someone who works two jobs, doesn't have a car and lives far from the store...that could describe a lot of people in the near future.
I'm currently 25 minutes walking distance from a grocery store (not counting the small convenience stores), I got used to just walking to it and buying a limited amount, enough for about a week. Driving is faster, but then I buy more, eat more and the rest goes bad...
Unless this person was a police officer, and you're glossing over a lot of the story, you can obtain a new one at your local DMV and resume operation of motor vehicles...
No, my driver's license was from another country. It would have required either thousands of dollars to replace or re-taking the test in the US. Neither options has been something I can do just yet. I'll take the US test soon.
If you're going to victim-shame and tell me, <<oh you just nearly got shot, what's the big deal, just hop on down to the DMV! It's your fault you can't drive a car right now>> that's not exactly such as simple thing to do and would be seriously rude.