Comment by tomkarlo | Hacker News Reader

Comment by tomkarlo | Hacker News Reader

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Even over a lifetime of trying, the probability remains pretty low. This is why articles like this emphasize that the more realistic was is via savings; lots of folks fail to save because they believe they're going to "hit it big" on the next deal / job / inheritance / lottery ticket, but it's usually just going to result in failing to save enough because you've over-estimated your future income.

It's also a convenient way to justify not saving enough.

I've watched fairly successful business owners make this mistake many times - they were making 400K or 500K (in some cases, millions) a year off a business, but not saving anything because they still expected it to grow a lot larger. If it fails to grow, then end up either broke or in debt.

It's inherent to entrepreneurs that they believe in the big future payoff more than average, but that's also a big blind spot for financial planning.

Probability of making onto the Forbes 400, very low for sure. Probability of building an income or capital base whose returns can match a typical salary, over a lifetime of attempts is very high.

Your examples showcase the pitfalls of bad planning and not the probability of business success. Success doesn't absolve one of the responsibility to plan, but being someone who did succeed can open up additional doors and options for the said plan.

I'd love to see your stats you're using to set that outcome's likelihood at "very high", relative to the probability of being able to save enough for retirement based on simply being a saver.

The entire problem is that most folks grossly overestimate their probability of future success, even over a lifetime.

(Not to mention likely done a lot of damage to your health and relationships, if you spend a career trying to finally achieve a big outcome... there are non-financial costs to taking bigger risks that we often fail to assess.)

Bigger risk wrt what exactly? Time? Working 60-80 hour weeks on entrepreneurial pursuits may boost your chances, but isn't required, except on a rare, brief inflection point occasions, IMO.

As for probabilities, spending 10 hours per week, thinking, and iterating on side projects, over the course of 10-15 years can bring a sustainable $10-15k monthly pre-tax income if done well. (I define well to be build stuff people want, focus on your customer, etc) If one's time horizon is smaller or income needs are larger, then there are other leverage points that can be used.

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