the biggest factor is energy cost and because of this it's a big energy arbitrage.
Sorry, the laws of physics say No. The electricity that you spend has been dissipated into the universe in the form of heat. It will quickly thermalize with its surrounding and be out of reach for useful work. Gone. You just proved your argument is a load of BS. Nothing is "captured" by each Bitcoin.
> "Using the “what goes into it” valuing method
Stop spewing BS please. There is no "what goes into it" method. No one cares how much something cost you.
If the spot price of a Bitcoin fall's bellow the production price in electricity, the logic thing for the miners to do is to stop mining, if they do this, the blocks will start to take more than 10 minutes and supply will decrease, moving the market price until it reaches equilibrium.
Most of the coins in circulation already exist, and sellers can easily sell for less than it cost to produce today because most of the coins were produced for far far less than today's cost.