Drones that can plant 100k trees a day
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ehhhhhmmmm no. It's not simple math. Or if it is, those are the wrong numbers to pick. Trees can reproduce themselves without human help and there are around 3.04 trillion trees in the world so a lot of potential for these net loss figures to be waaay off.
As far as we know, the number of trees in the world is actually growing. Higher levels of CO2 and the arrival of plastics and aluminium have contributed to reforestation of large areas of the world (we used to make everything out of wood). There are more trees now than there were 100 years ago.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), in the US, forest growth nationally has exceeded harvest since the 1940s. Same goes for Europe. The story might be different in Asia and certain parts of South America but in aggregate numbers I'd bet that we have net growth.
US Forests History and trends (FAO): www.fao.org/docrep/meeting/x4995e.htm
WorldBank has numbers for global trends but only with data starting in 1990 and for forest surface: https://data.worldbank.org
It shows a slight decline, but as FAO points out, forest density (trees pr sqmt) is also growing so forest surface area numbers don't tell the whole story.
There are also milestone payments: survives for 1 year - a small payment; survives for 2 - another payment...
Of course not, but they do reproduce and can do quite fast for animal propagated tree species. We are talking about 3.04 trillion trees. Even if the natural germination rates are low, it would still be significant enough to make a difference in the assertion this article uses as introduction.
Like I said, a lot of things have to be taken into account, including local deforestation and its effect on desertification. Higher averages temperatures are forcing forests to move to higher latitudes, but they are also clearing areas of growth that are not yet inhabited by humans and were far too cold before for trees to propagate to.
I'm not suggesting that there's not a problem with the way we use our forest resources, just that the oversimplification of the starting premise of the article doesn't help at all.
If self regeneration is low, it doesn’t matter what the absolute numbers are, they are still tiny compared to the level of deforestation.
Then there’s the attrition rate of forests, which is probably in the same order of magnitude as natural reforestation.
“Rate at which humans plant trees - rate at which humans destroy trees” is a good first order approximation of the general trends simply because the numbers are so large compared to all other factors.
In every environmental context, human action is the greatest impact by an order of magnitude simply because there are so many of us. For example, the greatest sources of methane in the environment are from human activities such as mining and cattle (64% according to USA EPA), way ahead of swamps and other natural sources.
Studies in Brazil suggest that natural reforestation is a process that takes between 60 years (some trees are back) to 4000 years (this patch has regenerated to be the same as the forest around it). It takes so much less time to clear a patch of forest than to regenerate, that the regeneration is a rounding error in calculations with two significant digits.
You may be correct. However, coming from an avid guitarists who looks at this particular industry in isolation from most people; there isn't "old growth" which is a unique problem in my industry. And what trees there are, less of them are considered musical instrument grade.
Also, the types of trees matter a lot (for certain things). We simply can't use Brazilian Rosewood for new builds anymore. It doesn't exist, and what does is heavily, heavily protected (To the point where instruments made before the export ban -worth $$$$$$$- are getting confiscated. Others similar to rosewood have been confiscated simply for looking like it's made from the Brazilian kind).
I think, in general we were aware of our problem as consumers of trees. However, we underestimated (for musicians) how the age and growth patterns dictate what makes a good tree for X. What was untouched for centuries simply makes better wood.
Essentially, the niche markets are really, really feeling this squeeze. So much so that Fender has switched to an alternative Rosewood for most if not all of their guitars, Taylor often uses (and pioneers in this subject in many ways) alternative "tonewoods" and has for years, simply because the wood that exists for these instruments even 50 years ago is simply unattainable now.
Some boutique builders are forced to harvest "forgotten" logs which sunk to the bottom of lakes and rivers decades ago.
It's a very good idea to make planting trees cheaper. I've often pondered robotics for tree planting. But will it be as cheap as human labour in terms of stems that make it to maturity? Hand-planted seedlings have a fairly good survival rate and tend to be well spaced, even if the planter is relatively negligent. Typically, the planted trees will need to be thinned later on, because so many survive.
As it stands, it costs a licensee $2-$3 CAD per stem to reforest an area. Typical densities are 1400-1800 stems per hectare. That's actually pretty cheap. Mature trees at harvest are worth thousands.
Source: worked as a tree planter for three seasons, have friends in the forestry sector.
About 1/5th the cost as a person: http://www.johnswope.com/?p=83
And a 20% savings. looks like a 10x margin to me...
Also, the usual rule of thumb: "drones". Flying means constantly expending energy to fight against gravity. Unless the particular problem solved requires flying (to e.g. reach otherwise unreachable spots), solutions involving flying machines are almost always bad. And I don't see anything in reforestation that requires flying.
This is doubly important if you're trying to make the world a better place, instead of just making a quick buck. If all you care about is money, you can make it so that someone else pays the energy costs. But if you truly care about doing something good, then you have to factor them in (they almost always involve non-renewable sources and pollution) and ask yourself, if your plan is even a net improvement for the world.
These kinds of projects remind me of Juicero, where it combines a few things western (middle/upper class?) people care about with technology and expects a great result but end up a middling disappointment.
A ground based drone — eg a modified bulldozer — can carry far more plants as cargo, meaning planting a field of a thousand sapling might require one trip where a flying drone will require a thousand trips.
The only catch is access: for a remote region with no trails of any kind it might be difficult for a large vehicle to navigate through the forest. In this case clearing a path for the planting machine might be a lower cost to the environment than the energy required to fly a thousand sorties with flying planters. A ground based drone will also be able to plant more robust saplings, since payload weight is far less of a concern.
Reading about deploying a swarm of drones to make this planet a better place makes me restore a bit more faith over human kind.
Does anyone know of good places to find opportunities to work on projects like this one?
The downside is that environmental concerns are largely considered a cost for civil engineering projects so much of your work will involve putting together models the 'prove' that the project under consideration will have a low environmental impact. But occasionally you will get a chance to work on a more 'positive' project as well. Either way it's probably a good place to start and to get experience with the realities of the field.
The ground we had to walk through was like a world war I trench zone with massive holes, ripped up trees, rocks, pits, it was a mess and hard to climb through. It was fun as a kid. But there was no way you could just throw trees everywhere and have them grow.
That being said, I can see how drones could do this with a tech change in how they are planted. Each drone has a few seedlings, the seedlings are in a pod that is weighted (keep it upright during planting) and self-sustaining (ie, plenty of dirt, water retention polymers, etc..) so they could be set on _top_ of the ground. (maybe some hex-shaped carboard box thing? lol)
Then drones get brought in with a big giant ass truck, you have 1000 drones, they make many multiple trips, recharges. It's possible.
Maybe the pods fall from say 10m and that is enough to get them into the ground (and not kill them)?
I don't think 10m (or even 100m) would get them into the ground. In my experience, the ground is a lot of rocks, roots and some dirt all in a big mess. Especially where there's been logging. But there's also a lot of upturned dirt, so who knows.
The best way to find out is to give it a shot. Can't be hard to fund a trial run. I bet it cost more to make the 3d video than to actual try it out and record the drone doing the work. :P
Well, I don't need to solve their problem for them, lol. I hope this works in some way, it's sounds neat in theory.
Code and algorithms you say?[0]
(Hint: their own video says a max of 300 pods every 18 minutes, then reloading and repositioning. And it can only work in daylight.)
> The system’s engineers estimate that their method is about 10 times faster and only 20% of the cost of hand planting.
But is planting even the slow/expensive part, as opposed to other land-management issues? Is a "mass seedling boom" even a good idea for the emerging ecosystem in the first place?
> possible to plant in hard-to-reach areas that have no roads or steep, inaccessible terrain.
So then how'd they get deforested in the first place? Both agriculture and logging would leave infrastructure. Wildfires? Forest ecosystems have their own interesting lifecycles for that.
The maintenance plan helps to protect the new growth to be eaten e.g. by moose and elk.
This is in Eastern Australia, where we have native wombats, macropods, possums, as well as wild/feral pigs, goats, rabbits, and the occasional deer, along with parrots and fruit fly that tend to destroy fruit with potentially viable seed. But at least we don't have moose, I guess.
Fencing off an area to stop the ground-based pests has impressive observable results even after a couple of years - but it's very expensive, and fences decay within the lifetime of many of the pioneer trees.
So de jure reforestation, while a nice principle, isn't feasible in all environments.
Further complication in many areas desperately in need of reforestation is periodic drought -- Australia and the Americas have the famous El Niño / La Niña cycles to contend with, where we regularly have several consecutive years with minimal (or at best unreliable) rainfall. Again, this is an excellent candidate for a very cheap mass seed distribution system that can simply be re-run each spring until a favourable rainfall pattern produces a good result.
The traditional solution is seed balls. Functionally it's like burying the seed, but the balls can simply be scattered.
Somewhere downhill and relatively nearby is a 'solved problem' for most trees -- but uphill, further afield, with appropriate soil depth for the seed size, in sufficient numbers, with less competition, etc. Aside -- ridges are one of the most useful places to focus reforestation efforts, in no small part because once established there, trees can generally propagate themselves across the rest of the slope.
Fending off predators is a concern, of course, but that's why you go for the large quantity approach when propagating by seed.
The claim these things can 'plant 100,000 trees a day' is clearly hyperbole. What they can do is plant 100,000 seeds a day, presumably at a much higher density than fully grown trees would be able to thrive, on the assumption that a useful number will actually establish.
While trees are mostly efficient at making new trees, that's not useful in areas that are heavily deforested -- and I suspect that's where this kind of technology would be most useful. Dungog in AU (as noted as a trial site in TFA) is a good example (gold rushes were especially bad for local flora, and in hot arid climates it can take centuries to recover). The breathtakingly vast plains west of Beijing that have been deforested, and now result in massive quantities of top soil being blown into the ocean each year would be a fantastic candidate for this kind of mass spray-and-pray planting.
Also, when re-foresting, pioneer trees are chosen - typically these are acacias (or similar) that have a relatively short life (10-20) years, are hardy, fast growing, and fix nitrogen. In degenerated older forests you may not find many of these around to produce seed naturally.
If the problem is deforestation, let's attack that problem first. Otherwise this is just pushing the dirt around (literally) and hoping this will fix it.
This is the scenario I see these drones as being useful for. The logistics of getting people on the ground in these remote areas can be difficult and costly.
Wouldn't have the same concerns for angry wildlife either!
Answering that question and then executing a business plan is probably worth billions.
Planting trees to combat 6 billion trees lost every year is a pure expense, no profit to be made at all. At least not if you won't cut them down a few decades later.
[0] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/23/deforestation-whe...
My reading of this implies the seed ends up underground.
A drone seems like the best answer here to get maximum accessibility and speed. Reaching 100k a day with a wheeled robot would be tricky.
As cool as flying is, I'm all for ground solutions on this one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerial_seeding
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agricultural_drones
I think the real advancement here is the autonomous component of it.
It's the novelty of it, basically. We're not yet inoculated, as a society, to the charm of quad-copters.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=ollas+gardening&t=lm&iax=images&ia...
I do realize the ollas are for more permanent gardens, but it's the same concept. I do hope the paper version gets used, there are plenty of places that could benefit from it.
Silly example, but in the U.K. (almost everywhere on this island) it rains 4629362619 days per year! (or it feel like this much:)
I do understand that U.K. forests are not diminishing as they are on Amazon but I think (not sarcastically) they are called Rainforests.
I guess it depends on the reason for the deforestation. If it is just for timber, then a cheap solution to repopulate the area would be taken up by the lumberjacks themselves (so they can go back in 10-20-30 years and collect again and repeat the cycle). If the deforestation is simple to create more land for crops/living areas, then this is irrelevant.
Also, people need jobs. Give them jobs planting trees and picking up trash.
/can't see the forest for the trees.
Firstly you're staging a false dichotomy. We can use both these kind of drones if we want to.
"Trees will plant themselves" < so they are idiots?
"people need jobs" is played every time we replace a brain dead job with some kind of effective innovation. There are no examples of us going back. Fortunately.
Birds plant trees much better than drones and wolves are critical to allow the saplings to survive their first five years. We could feed an army of planting tree drones and cover each inch of mountain with seedlings just to give an expensive yummy snack to sheeps and goats.
I agree. Let's not plant a lot of trees that goats and cows will just eat up.
Some quick insomnia driven commentbox math
One 155mm shells has about ~11kg of payload capacity and a range of 25km. [0]100 panderosa pine seeds is ~4g [1]
11kg means 275000 seeds / shell.
You'd plant pines at density of around 1000/acre [2]
The biggest question is seed survivor rates of being planted by artillery but let's consider a survivorship of 2%...
275000 * 0.02 = 5500 Surviving trees, or effective planting over 5.5 acres / shell.
A modern autoloading artillery can launch ~70 shells per hour. [3]
You'd have an effective planting rate of 385 acres / hour. Or 1.54 km^2 / hour. 13400 km^2 / year.
With a single artillery that has a radius of 25km you get an area of 1900km^2.
Survivorship is a major bound here
Seed Survival Rate: 2%9,504,000 trees / day
13400 km^2 covered / year
But at 1%
4,752,000 trees / day
6700 km^2 covered / year
In any case 100k/day seems quaint when you can plant nearly 10 million.
Assuming 2% survivorship, covering 1900km^2 at 1.54km^2/hour you can plant the entire effective area in ~55 days, as long as you keep loading the thing.
Comparing costs to this drone
An Archer artillery unit is ~$4,200,000 [4]
1 155mm shell is ~$500 [5]It takes ~37 shells to plant 100k trees which means ~$19000 for munitions.
Using that $400 million dollar fund entirely for this idea
The fund intends to protect 5 million hectares, or 50000 km^2. [6]Let's say we want to finish this endeavour within 2 years, and assume our effective time spent planting versus moving and getting the project off the ground is 50%, so we get 1 effective year of dedicated planting time.
One artillery piece can plant 13400km^2 / year.
50000km^2 total area / 13400km^2 coverage per year = ~4 pieces of artillery.
Let's buy 3x what we need so we can just flip them out when they break down and have some spares in case repairs/maintenance take a while.
12 pieces of artillery is ~$51,000,000
You need ~46 shells to cover 1km^2
50,000*46 = 2,300,000 shells
2,300,00 shells at $500 / shell = $115,000,000 for munitions
Artillery + munition cost is $166 million.
Throw $10mil each at R&D + Testing, Logistics, and Administration/Staff and you're at $196 million with more than half of the fund left over.
Hmmmmmmm......
I dunno it feels like it would be worth taking a couple million USD to borrow an Archer from Sweden and rig up a burst shell to see if it works at all.It has some precedent: there have been some shotgun shells filled with seeds before that actually worked [7]
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M795 [1] https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/olympia/kids/WASeeds.pdf [2] https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/nrcs141p2_0... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archer_Artillery_System [4] http://www.army-guide.com/eng/product2819.html [5] http://www.pmulcahy.com/ammunition/howitzer_rounds.html [6] https://www.weforum.org/press/2017/01/400-million-fund-launc... [7] http://www.businessinsider.com/flower-shell-shotgun-gardenin...