The sick part is Amazon is asking cities to fight over the privilege to kiss it's ass. So the bidding goes higher and higher as the people get robbed more and more.
First, it's huge, and in a state that arguably does not have the population or state budget to support the subsidies. ie - Whether or not Wisconsin can actually afford this is an open question.
Secondly, just as you mentioned, if Foxconn does start up in Wisconsin, and they eat up all of the subsidies... what is to stop them from moving?
Lastly, the Foxconn deal is a very 20th century attempt at growth in what a lot of smart people claim is a new 21st century reality.
One thought experiment put forth recently noted that there are roughly 3 or 4000 STEAM and business school graduates from Wisconsin universities every year. A 21st century attempt at growth might be to dole out seed level startup grants for those graduates with good enough ideas... something in the ... say ... 20000USD range. With the money they will give to Foxconn... They could do that for EVERY STEAM or business graduate, for EVERY year... for the next 50 or so years. It's hard to imagine that they wouldn't hit a high enough valuation on their portfolio to make their money back. I thought that was kind of a good point.
So, I'd be very curious to see some states try the "state run ycombinator" thing, while others try the old give lots of subsidies to big companies thing...
and see which model is more successful long term?
We'll likely never see that... but it would be interesting from a purely academic perspective.
We just have no good data on that. How long will they stay? My COMPLETELY UNEDUCATED guess would be more than 5 years, but likely much less than 50 years.
We could compare the income taxes generated, but my gut tells me that doing so would put the young STEM and business types even further ahead in terms of ROI. That's just a guess though.
The only thing I know is that there are roughly 3 or 4000 STEAM and Business school graduates. So that's what I have to go with.
Besides, there are obviously LESS than 3 or 4000 STEM grads, so the program would last LONGER than 50 years in that case.
(Although I think cross functional STEAM/Business teams are a better bet anyway... but even if you believe the STEM guys are capable of going it alone... it only makes the guy's argument more strong. Because the funding would last decades longer.)