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Right, it’s based on market manipulation.

Correct that it's not entirely luck, at the moment its price is being propped up by Bitfinex. Whenever BTC value starts to dip below 10K USD, they just print more Tethers (USDT) and start buying up coins at above market price...and there's a new upswing.

It's not at all sustainable, though.

How can you tell?

Because...?

Because it is based on supply and demand, it's just more volatile than what you're used to. Doesn't make it luck

The price is a function of the supply and demand.

The supply is mostly a function of time, as defined by the blockchain's algorithms.

The demand is a function of what, exactly?

Still looks mostly like luck to me.

you have hodlers which reduces supply even more.

demand is a function of greed.

blackjack tables are based on supply and demand. the margins on blackjack are ~51% in favor of house. if they don't get enough traffic, a swing could take the house. So if there isn't enough demand, than it's not financially feasible for the house to play those odds.