> there's no requisite that ATP/ respiration is the direction life is going to take

Based on the article I linked in my other comment I would say that on oxygen-rich planets, respiration is likely to happen simply because life needs to find a way to deal with it's toxicity, or perish. Although that presupposes that photosynthesis is inevitable, which also doesn't have to be true.

I kind of wonder how much we truly know about the strength of lock-in effects of evolution - of how much life is "stuck" with old hacks that we can no longer get rid of or that lead to dead ends. I doubt we'd ever evolve avian lungs from where we are now, for example. I know there are examples like that all over the place, but just how strong is the effect?