I'd say your probability of success is going to be low. Success is not solely defined by PnL. If you're making money then you will certainly have to deal with increased compliance and oversight from whoever is sponsoring your access to the markets - this comes with a cost.

Furthermore you can never just "sit" on a strategy. Eventually your edge gets arbed out and you need to be creative enough to data-mine the heck out of the market to find some new edge.

Some thoughts on figuring out your edge: 1. You're not the only smart person looking at something. There are armies of PhDs who have been there and done that. 2. Study regulation and regulatory changes. Keep abreast of new & upcoming changes. 3. Look for markets where barrier to entry is higher or not as studied. eg: Electricity markets are a _bit_ less understood or traded. 4. Always think in pairs or more... Longing or shorting something outright is almost never the answer. But trading the spread between two (3,4,many) related products is more difficult to calculate and backtest. 5. Always do the more difficult thing - but don't make it complicated. Simple math is usually what works.