For comparison, overall and by-race data for the US:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_in_the_United_States_by...
From New Hampshire at 1.1, Hawaii at 1.3, and Vermont at 1.6 to Mississippi at 8.7 and Louisiana at 10.
http://amp.kansascity.com/news/local/crime/article191211704....
Population of NYC: 8,537,673
Population of St Louis: 312,000
The one thing NY does have is high inequality measured in gini, the highest of all states. That usually drives crime/murder rates. But it's probably because of rich outliers (extreme upper capital class), rather than a big gap between lower-uppermiddle.
It's true that the rates are rising for a few years in a row, but this is nothing new. If anything, Canada's typical pattern is to see a rise a few years in a row, followed by a stronger drop. [0]
It's also true that gang related offences were part of the recent rise. But let's also note that they entail about 100 of the 600 murders in Canada, 15.5% in the last year for which I can find data. (2016). The vast majority of murders are done not by strangers but by friends or family, not related to gang violence.
[0] http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/171122/cg-b001-eng....
So how effective is that alone? It seems per capita income would be the prevalent factor.
Arguably the poorest US state, West Virginia, has a typical murder rate of around 3 to 4 per year per 100k.
Vietnam has been extraordinarily poor for the last half century, only recently beginning to climb economically. Its murder rate is typically 1 to 1.5 or so.
Per capita income probably only has a correlation in regards to the resources you have available to deal with crime problems if such presently exist, rather than being the defining characteristic of whether eg murder will be prevalent in a nation.
Sure if the average salary in Vietnam is $150/month then yes per capita income is going to to be lower than the poorest cities in US. $150/month is a different story in NYC or SF. It would have to be adjusted for purchasing power or maybe just looking at poverty rates.
It isn't, alone, in a cherry-picked example. But ceteris paribus it's a explanatory factor.
I mean, one could also use your argument the other way around and question whether income is effective as a factor by itself. Cherry pick some country with similar levels of median wealth and a wildly different murder rate and gun laws. Like say the Netherlands and the US. Doesn't really prove a point, it'd be silly to now claim income isn't an important factor.
per_capita_data = {'white': 3, 'asian': 1, 'black': 21, 'hispanic': 6}
cali_cencus = {'white': 37.7, 'asian': 14.8, 'black': 6.5, 'hispanic': 37.7}
texas_cencus = {'white': 42.4, 'asian': 4.8, 'black': 12.6, 'hispanic': 39.1}
def calculate(per_capita, state_stats):
rate = 0
for race in per_capita:
rate += per_capita[race] * (state_stats[race] / 100)
return rate
print calculate(per_capita_data, texas_cencus)
print calculate(per_capita_data, cali_percentages)If there's a correlation there, it doesn't seem obviously strong.
This linked adds a new dimension - climate change with warmer temperatures would appear to come with an increased death toll due to crime.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009506961...
Among OECD countries, only 3 countries are worse than the USA [1]
The USA really does rank among developing countries in a lot of different measures.
[1] http://www.businessinsider.com/oecd-homicide-rates-chart-201...
http://bismarcktribune.com/news/national/the-cities-with-the...
That's significantly higher than average, but not 'crazy' relative to Venezuela's murder rate of 90 per 100,000.
On the other hand Washington DC was ~70-80 from 1988 to 1998, which would have put it on the current list of top 10 deadliest city's worldwide. DC: (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/data/ct-homicide-spikes-c...)
Current top 50: http://www.businessinsider.com/most-violent-cities-in-the-wo...
PS: Homicide rates are not necessarily accurate, but tend to be closer to reality than say rape statistics.
Amsterdam has a murder rate commonly as high as the whole of the US. That isn't a rational comparison and isn't indicative of the murder rate of the Netherlands.
Currently, St. Louis, United States, sit's at # 14 most dangerous city worldwide. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate
To believe you aren’t in danger does not make it so.
It would also have a GDP much like the USA, and would qualify for the OECD.
Obviously this is just about how averages work -- the high violence stats of the 10% can completely skew the average, but their low income stats can't. But it's worth remembering, every time someone tries to tell you what an outlier among rich countries the US is. It's a large, diverse, country... and often different averages are telling you facts about completely different people & places.