Much longer thoughts on America vs. China http://www.jonathanbrun.com/who-will-lead-the-world/
Also, lots of Chinese local governments have confessed to faking data.
https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id...
http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/china-province-...
In addition, if you check out Anne Stevenson yang, a China expert living in China, she said the real gdp growth is only 1-2%
It's also interesting that prior to 1989, there was real fear of Japan overtaking US and it was reflected by the media and films.
If you studied Economics in university, you will realize US hegemony is far more penetrating and hard to replicate due to network effect...its self evident when the Chinese political elite send their kids away from China, along with wealth...
In my humble opinion, the American empire is probably the most efficient and anti-fragile system set in human history because it feeds off on our weakness for rare material goods. I will have to agree with Warren Buffett that the next 100+ years for America will be very good indeed for business. Majority of the network is on an English speaking framework, it's unlikely to switch to hieroglyphics and archaic Confucian values that oppressed individual freedom.
tl;dr: China won't usurp the US hegemony without surpassing its military and its transnational and intranational reach through corporatism. Soft power plays a huge role and its not something communist architectures are known for. Otherwise, American elites would be fighting to send their kids to the dreamy foggy lands of Beijing University. The US model is to provide a platform where American corporations can thrive, with money or bullets. It's a system where the value of every nation's money is backed by it's own fiat currency, guaranteeing the #1 position as long as there isn't a civil war or something like that divides the country.
The only people that believe PRC will overtake the US are Chinese folks and through Chinese diaspora that bought the line.
Sorry should've been more specific with my terms, debt levels that exceed assets has proven to be toxic in Japan, Korea, Ireland, Greece.
it's foolish to believe that China is somehow immune from economic downturns because it's a communist state. USSR would like a word with you....
I’ve taken the HSR many times and the car I’ve been in has almost been empty for much of the way between Beijing and Guangzhou.
Actually we also don't really care the faked data. If you can feel the growth, it should be fine. US's economy growth rate is 2~3% and I can barely feel it, it's nowhere close to the rapid growth I felt in China.
hmm, for middle class numbers and ability to spend, check iphone/galaxy S sale numbers.
Edit: I would really recommend you visiting China and I can guarantee you can see something interesting there.
And that largely stems from the fact that Han culture has been mostly stable and very successful for most of those thousands of years. They only got a blip of doubt in their total confidence of racial superiority when American-European culture suddenly lurched ahead economically within the last 200 years. White people earned temporary, grudging status as near-equals by making a colossal pile of money while building massive new empires around the world, while China was busy still being the best China that ever China'd.
The thought in the back of the Han-Chinese mind is that the success of the West is but a temporary condition, and that once the technological gap closes, China will once again be the undisputed center of the world, populated by the best, smartest, and most sophisticated people. There is almost zero self-awareness of their own racism, and barely an inkling of consideration that racism might even be bad.
China is 92% Han. The remaining 8% are largely sequestered in poor regions of the interior, like the Indian reservations in the US, so any city you are likely to visit for business or tourism will be 99.9% Han. And if you are not already Chinese, it is nigh-impossible to gain citizenship without being a full-blooded Han (tragically born into the wrong country) or by marrying a native.
So don't pin your hopes on being able to follow the money if China becomes the dominant global economy.
Funny thats pretty much what the average Joe thinks about the US.
I don't know how you ended up with that twisted opinion, but after working in software development in Beijing for almost two years I can't share these views at all. I perceived my colleagues as pragmatic, forward-looking, interested in politics regarding China and the world, with critical opinions on each of them. I rarely had so many insightful discussions about various political and social aspects as when I stayed there.
(the following is based on personal experience so YMMV) If anything, they have a longer term perspective on history. It's an ancient civilization and they have seen it all. There are those who think it's inevitable that China will eventually be on top once again, but generally, even they are pretty humble going about it and eager to learn from Westerners and imitate what works (sometimes resulting in IP violations or cargo culting).
It's just patriotism. I expect Chinese people to be as proud of China as Americans are of America. Some will be more die-hard than others, and some will be more humble about it.
All of my co-workers working in software are a lot more critical of our government and national politics than--to name near-antipodal opposites--some of my Trump-electing MAGA in-laws, for whom America is the paragon of nations that can do no wrong. Maybe you didn't talk to a representative sample?
The actual best, smartest, and most sophisticated people tend to be much more cosmopolitan in their world view (and in their distribution). But they aren't always the ones driving the politics, or the ones exporting the cultural stereotype.
Joe in the US idolizes the US, and Wei in China idolizes China. And to be fair, it is the most populous nation, with a rapidly growing middle class and developing high-tech manufacturing sector. While China hasn't ever been the center of the world, it has always been the center of east Asia.
I did to some extend. Your initial post sounded quite stereotypical, like the typical communist gulag FUD you get from fox news etc., so I tried to give a counter example. Your follow-up however read much more insightful and I can pretty much agree.
My impression was that it was mostly older people who believed in China being the undisputed number one for all time (after a quick recovery from the western take over), which I like to account to Mao's influence on their views and values. Younger people had much more realistic views, while I have to admit that it was mostly college students I talked to due to my lack of Chinese skills. But even if the less well-educated youth from some remote village is the prime example of a patriot not questioning anything the government does, is that really that different from here? In general I'm very curious what the next generation of Chinese will be like. There is such a huge clash in the current gen that's about to have kids, because many of the habits and ideas of the past generation just don't work anymore in the current Chinese society. This is just one of the aspects that make me wonder where the country as a whole is headed. It's moving so fast and unexpectedly that I don't really dare to take an opinion on whether China will "take over the world" or not and what this would actually be like for the rest of us. I see great potential for this to happen, but also lots of inner-political and social tensions that could have devastating impact on the country and throw it back again quite a bit.
You specifically mention what the average Joe in the US thinks, which sharply contrasts with the global, left-leaning attitudes that are prevalent with US software developers.
Did you ever venture to the countryside in China? Or speak with people outside of software?
China has a long history of not only racism, but a potent classism where urban families are considered far superior to rural families. They even regulate which rural people can move to cities. The fact that you don't appear to be aware of this is odd.
see my reply further down this thread...
> They even regulate which rural people can move to cities.
Do you have the slightest clue what would happen if they didn't do that? Apparently not. It's not a great system, but it's necessary.
> The fact that you don't appear to be aware of this is odd.
I don't see the relevance to racism. I could bring to the table that there's a country that was able to go to the moon but didn't allow black people to vote at the same time which is just mind boggling, but doesn't really help the discussion either.
This might seem surprising in a country with racial tensions running high, but I think that we're talking so much about racial inequality and tensions is the reason why America is one of the least racist places. It's an ongoing struggle to deal with it. And in most places, people don't deal with it.
Only because the government keeps redefining what is Han.
I lived in Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Ghongzhou for over ten years. There were Hakka, Canton and Chui Chow people but few ethnic Han. That has since changed as factories are filled from all over China.
The government desperately wants everyone to think that China is for all intents and purposes one people, but it's a patch-work quilt of different ethnic groups, cultures and languages who are often at odds with each other.
Remember, being Han is not something people are ashamed of, in ancient East Asia, it is an honor, the hallmark of civilization, as was Rome, as is being American. Realistically, earn an ticket to the enormous economic opportunities China is offering is not a bad deal either, if you already look like one.
All the best, Vince