TV, retail, advertising and cascading collapses
ben-evans.com
ben-evans.com
Many people buy PC components from Newegg or household goods from Amazon when they might be an entire $5 more at a retail store. The retails store version you can actually see and touch (more important for a bathmat, less important for a video card) and they're shipping in packages of 100 or 500. Stores typically do recycle all their cardboard.
You buy it on-line, and it comes in a box. And those boxes add up, and many of them don't get reused or recycled depending on what part of the world you live in.
Amazon pushes people to buy more through their ecosystem. We're buying more stuff we don't need than ever, and generating more waste than ever. Their dash button felt like the ultimate consumption waste tool. Amazon is pushing us into a world where we are continually buying.
I'd rather we live in a world where we buy more are, fewer goods (with what we do buy being more expensive but durable). What a great world if our cellphones and devices lasted 8 years instead of 2. A world where we could buy independent games and media and know the creators got a full 85%~90% like with Bandcamp instead of the current bullshit 66% they get from Apple/Google/Amazon/Steam/Gog.
A world where we spend less on goods and the goods last longer; a world that lets us spend more on art, could greatly reduce our overall pollution (not just the symbolic and useless measure of carbon) and could help create a more Army of Davids type world where people can legitimately live off their art.
If you want to get rid of personal point-to-point tranportation tech, you have to provide something more convenient or get more coercive than most of the country has the political will for. Walking in winter cold or summer heat simply isn't that for most people. People enjoy privacy, people enjoy personal space, people enjoy their own music and conversation, etc.
It's similar to how you won't roll back the clock on iPhones and Facebook simply by posting nostalgic articles for the way things used to be. You have to address the added utility that has caused the adoption.
Mass motorization and suburbanization were driven by government policy and still are. For every consumer dollar spent on driving, the government spends ten (wish I could cite this, but I can't find it at the moment).
I'm not saying cars aren't appealing, or that they don't have utility, just that the situation most Americans find themselves in, where the built environment favors cars to the exclusion of all other modes of transportation, is the result of public policy interacting with (or distorting) markets rather than a pure expression of individual preference.
Sure, in a dense enough area--which I don't live in; I'm basically rural--things like basic grocery shopping are a short walk away. But lots of the things I order from Amazon would probably take some serious looking around even in Manhattan.
A lot of this waste is a function of population density. With a super-dense city, where almost every conceivable product is within walking range (and, as a bonus, it's expensive to move around in cars) and prices are normalized, retail stores make sense. As the density drops down, people get into cars and often ignore their local stores, driving far out chasing rare items or discounts. Which is stupid (gas costs too) and wasteful in aggregate at the same time.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_concre...
I recently needed an HDMI cable. At Amazon, it's like $7. The ones that Best Buy/Target/etc have are around $12-$15. For surge protectors, it's been a toss-up as to whether they have something that I think I'd trust, or something that is Barely Adequate. For finding an X-to-Y (e.g. HDMI to DVI-D) cable or adapter, good luck -- they often list it and then say, "Oh that's not an in-store item".
It's especially egregious with books! Every time I am in a bookstore and see something I might like, I nearly always can find it on Amazon for about 2/3 of the price (or less if I buy used). If I'm browsing fiction for something to read, but am not desperate for a particular resource, what am I paying for?
I hate boxes, but it's rare that my "Must have it now" impulse outweighs the knowledge that I could get the item for much cheaper. I do hate cutting down boxes, though. =/
What if these were rented from USPS, re-usable, and highly durable? What if the mailman picked up my empty shipping containers for re-use? What if the shipping containers had inflatable bladders to hold the contents steady and absorb shocks?
In Finland there is RePack https://www.originalrepack.com/ UPS has Express Envelopes. Amazon has Ships in Own Container.
Industry can solve the problem with reusable containers. If you pay small deposit for packaging the first time and you can easily return them it's problem solved. RePack can be returned by dropping it into mailbox.
Additionally, you're ignoring the very real cost of failed purchases. You go to the retail store, they don't have what you want so you go to the next store, they don't have it either, you go to the next. They have something that's close enough so you buy it but then you end up replacing it after 5 months with what you really wanted. Meanwhile, with the online store the experience is very different, you find what you want, you research different options, you buy it and you're done. A lot of times being able to "put your hands on a product" isn't helpful. Many times you can't even do that in a retail store, you can see the box, that tells you nothing more than the online experience. When you shop online you can take the time to shop around, look at reviews, look at professional recommendations, etc.
I don't believe the caricatures you've populated your mind with -- thoughtless consumers obliviously smashing the "Buy Now" button -- represent reality. There certainly are reckless people pissing away excessive disposable income, but most people put a lot of thought into their purchases and are not in need of your high wisdom and discipline.
There's a case to be made that its a lock-in button. I might buy some other brand if its on sale at Safeway, but that other brand doesn't have a dash button next to my washing machine.
Btw, my wife got our son a Kraft Mac-n-cheese dash button when he went to college, at considerable risk he would just go into the mac-n-cheese business.
Btw btw, we're a "Charlie's Soap Laundry Powder" household (no dye! no scent!).
I suspect that advertising will get stronger and stronger pushback. With so many options for entertainment and news delivery, I just don't consume anything that mandates ads. (IE, if the BBC or CNN force me to watch a 30 second ad I just ignore the video, if a website blocks my ad blocker I don't read the site.)
A bad side effect of this is that when I do hear ads or see a TV it's really, really difficult to filter it out.
That brings to the forefront a feeling that I have noticed in the back of my mind recently: I notice ads that many people don't since I've tried to de-advertise my content consumption. Hulu/Spotify ads breaking up episodes/songs annoy me more than ever, perhaps increasing this cascading failure that the article features.
As for billboards and other "in your face" advertising, i'd love to see it disappear, but there is one important factor that differentiates it from explicit tv, youtube, and radio ads: there isn't an explicit opportunity cost between their presence and the activity you're usually partaking in. So if you have you're attention elsewhere, they won't capture it and stop you partaking in the activity you're actually doing.
Indeed, my mind has gotten so good at unconsciously filtering out those ads, I can't honestly say I see them. But then, I'm the kind of guy who will walk past a new store I'm not interested in for 6 months before someone else has to inform me it exists.
Now, i'm not naive, I know that there's bloggers and newspaper articles and product placement (and all the more reason to stop reading the ones that deliberately do it), but its like junk food.
Ok, maybe you can't get it down to zero. But you sure as hell can try to cut it back to a minimum, and its good to do so...
Broadcast TV: I skip ads with a DVR
Aps: As long as the ad is a tiny banner that doesn't pop in front of the screen, it's okay.
The last thing I watched 'weekly' was Game of Thrones which in the UK is broadcast on Sky Atlantic. I just record the show when it's aired overnight (simultaneously with the US) and fast forward them at ×30.
If I decide ad hoc to watch a programme now on a commercial channel I just pause it while I make a cup of tea or whatever, giving me enough time to skip the ads. It's a no-brainer.
It was funny when Pru Leith suggested her viewers should do the same[0]
[0] http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2017-08-22/worried-about-the-...
I'm in the same boat and do something similar. The only thing I really watch "live" are sports. English Football on the weekends, Hockey during the week. Any show I want to watch, I'll record it so I can focus on the substance of the show and fast forward through the commercials. This allows me to watch an hour show in roughly 40 minutes.
One thing that sticks out: A ton of TV advertising is the same ads that were running when I was a kid. Not all of it, but a lot more than I'd expect. Anyone else notice this?
For me, seeing a 1980s ad is pretty funny. At least I had the excuse that I was a kid.
(Though I recall even in the 90s thinking the whole "EXTREME!" thing was stupid. I think that may have been a pretty egregious case of geographic parochialness; surfer culture may seem totally radical when you're in Hollywood, with easy access to the beach almost year-round, but for anywhere else in the country who either doesn't live so far south, doesn't live near a surfable beach, or doesn't have the cash to fund such an expensive hobby, it was much less compelling.)
Also I can't help but notice that 7/8ths of what's advertised on TV is for seniors.
Frankly though they should really update it, some of the footage from their call centers shows people working at dual CRT desks with software that looks like it's straight out of War Games. If I was shopping for something for my mother, I'd want their service at LEAST running Windows 7.
A lot of people did/do watch TV linearly out of habit. Plop themselves down on the couch and watch.
Would they have started doing that if they had a lot of other options? Maybe in some cases. (Don't underestimate the desire of some people to have something on in the background.) But probably a lot fewer.
Something similar applies to a cable bundle. I lot of people have it. It's probably the easiest way to watch live sports. It may also be bundled in with other services they use. Etc. Canceling probably means changing some habits and losing access to at least some content. But they wouldn't necessarily have called up Comcast or DirecTV and initiated a subscription if they didn't already have one.
I'm in this category. I've got a bunch of streaming subscriptions yet I usually end up channel surfing regular TV.
Maybe it's a generational thing. Maybe it's laziness (i.e. let them decide what I watch, I don't want to pick). Maybe it's the convenience of the interface (it just works, no connecting, changing channels is near instant, etc). Maybe a combo of all of those.
That's all likely true to some degree. Personally, I've probably become more and more a very intentional (and occasional) TV watcher and I've never been one to flip the TV on in, say, a hotel room for background when I walk in the door. I still have a cable bundle but I rarely use it.
If cable TV could be commercial-free like satellite radio, I might be a subscriber. It's the same reason I cancelled my NYT.com subscription: I don't like paying for the privilege of watching advertisements. If I'm paying you money, I'd better get an ad-free experience. If my monthly fee doesn't cover the cost of replacing ads, then you're not charging me enough.
Maybe Netflix should set up channels where they just play shows back to back like cable TV does.
Someone brought this up a few weeks ago but it's not really a good fit with Netflix' cost model. They really don't want to be paying content providers for an always on background stream when no one may even be watching. Of course, Spotify does but I suspect the numbers are a lot different. Perhaps there's enough really cheap content they could do this with.
The general concept would probably be interesting for a lot of people if the numbers worked.
Things on cable are more focused on self contained episodes. Black mirror accomplished this but again, it was too emotionally heavy. Netflix is too focused on binge watchers.
I haven't really found content (except old series from cable) that I can just "zone out" and be entertained like Futurama, cooking or auto shows and not worry if i didnt watch all of it.
I'm overseas and so I dont have a lot of the series from cable on Netflix. The content it has is good. But its not something I want to unwind with in the background.
I just don't watch a lot but I definitely understand your point of view. Shows like Game of Thrones I'll sometimes doze off or get distracted and ten minutes later I have no idea what's going on. A lot of the series on TV today really require paying strict attention.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/technology/cheap-consumer...
BTW, landfills aren't great environments for decomposition even for paper and cardboard - the weight and compression make for a hostile environment for aerobic microbes and for the larger animals (rodents, insects, worms) that usually help with the first round of decomposition and increasing the surface area available to the microbes. If you dig into a landfill, you can often find 75-year-old newspapers (made of some of the least durable materials around) completely intact.
Mid-to-late 20thC landfills are the worst of all because there's so much plastic and styrofoam, the ratio of decomposable materials is very low.
Now that is a crazy amount but what is more amazing is how fast it is growing as it is growing at over 50% per year. That is more hours than all of linear TV in the US combined. But then Google has the ability to target ads and therefore have less than linear TV. It is just hard to see how linear TV will be able to compete if they are going g to continue to have 14 minutes of ads per hour of TV.
My kids are growing up without ads or far less than I did and there is little chance they would except 1/4 of viewing time being ads.
Most shopping online still has an implicit power-law dynamic because of its two-dimensional layout, where being "above-the-fold" or "top of the list" garners the majority of customer attention (and therefore sales).
> This ought probably to mean
> Meanwhile, the same applies somewhat even
> accelerating and interlocking ... discontinuous and cascading