Hacker News Reader

Comment by simonebrunozzi | Hacker News Reader

I want to humbly add my 2020 predictions from 2017: https://medium.com/the-naked-founder/2020-predictions-from-2...

Happy to hear comments about it.

The only one of those with even the remotest chance of happening is the Cryptocurrency one.

A Robocop by 2020? If you had a Robocop by 2090 I'd be shocked. (A remotely controlled Robocop is not a Robocop, you said helped by AI, and that's the part I'm focusing on.)

Just try to talking to one of those assistants like Google Home, and you'll realize just how far away we are from AI.

> [Driverless cars] Today, in 2017, I believe that at least 19 out of 20 people would agree.

Nope, not happening. Driverless cars (except in dedicated lanes) are not going to happen for 20 or 30 years if not longer.

What I do agree will happen is dedicated instrumented lanes for them on freeways (little point in doing it in cities). Kind of like train rails.

But your vision of them transforming cities is not going to happen for decades, if ever.

Personally, I think many of your time estimates are wildly pessimistic. Humanity is on an improvement graph that almost seems exponential - I don't think it would be crazy to see driverless cars in the next 5-10 years, considering how many people continue to get in to this space. There may be strict legislation around it, but that's a different discussion. Similarly, look how far we've come in "assistants" in the last 6 years since Siri was released... 2090 definitely seems like a stretch.

We've been able to do driverless cars since the 90s. It's doing it safely while mixed in with normal cars that's the problem. I'm with the other poster that we won't see driverless cars in non-dedicated lanes for at least 20 years.

Edit: actually the article mentions a self driving car from 1987, so even earlier.

look how far we've come in "assistants" in the last 6 years since Siri was released

Not far at all. I still struggle to do basic tasks with my Apple Watch 3 (like sending a text to one of my contacts, or automatically start/stop Run app when I start/stop running).

To be fair, look how far we've come in "assistants" in the last 6 years since Siri was released can be read as “look how much Siri has been surpassed in quality by other assistants since it was introduced” rather than “look how far Siri has advanced since it was introduced”.

What's the trigger event for the global recession you are predicting? You have listed some "worrying" factors - but there is no clear interconnection between them or trigger for any one to cause a global recession. Finding and predicting the trigger is the hard part IMO, as well as how governments will respond (more bailouts and QE?).

Can you point to a source for your prediction of a robotic cop killing someone by 2023?

Agree with Facebook "political party" instead of Zuckerberg running a campaign - not sure how this differs much from the traditional way corporations influence politics through donations, contributions, advertising, etc.

Your prediction of driverless cars doesn't mesh well with Rodney Brooks' prediction of driverless car saturation in 2045, he predicts we will have one dedicated lane for hands-free driving by 2021 and limited taxi/bus services by 2028. What is your basis for more aggressive forecast?

Recessions are inevitable and they do not need a trigger. Are oceans triggered to create their waves?

Is that question meant to be a joke? Ocean waves most definitely have external triggers.

The most common one is wind, but changes in atmospheric pressure can cause them, as can a sudden change in the sea floor due to an earthquake or volcano (this is what causes tsunamis). The rotation of the earth and the gravitational pull of the moon can cause waves when it moves water confined spaces - this kind of wave is usually called a tidal bore.

Is there some kind of ocean wave I'm unaware of that can spontaneously occur without some external force/trigger?

The facebook will probably happen. Facebook has already taken sides. There already is a Fox party and a CNN/MSNBC party. Before that there was a New York Times, Wall Street Journal Party.

Global Economic Recession is a safe one. The question is when?

I think Cryptcurrencies will crash with the recession. If a recession hits people are going to want to cash in their crypto for real money and guess what will happen to crypto?

Driverless / Flying / ... cars are probably the biggest change since the cell phone and internet. The only weird thing about them is their timming. People kind of travel less. Shopping is done over the internet, education is done over the internet, jobs are done over the internet. Socializing is done over the internet, Church over the internet.

>There already is a Fox party and a CNN/MSNBC party

The pairing of the latter two is something few would have predicted not that long ago.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com