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Comment by GrumpyNl | Hacker News Reader

Nice news, but when will they deliver? Maybe its time they start to answer that question first.

They are getting started. Mass producing a vehicle is not an easy task and takes a lot of expierence, equipment. Every manufacturer starts slowly but we don’t notice it as drastically because there is usually less demand. If Model A is not available, most customers choose Model B or Model A-like from company B. Or chances are they have not even heard of that Model and just don’t look for it. For Tesla it is different.

Tesla needs to announce them far in advance so they get funding. They can’t just create another Model, start mass production and delivery without anyone noticing and caring to post it online. So they capitalize on the hype and sell as man as they can.

Furthermore there is no Tesla Model 3 from any other company. There is not even a Model S or X from any company. There are some products that are close but lack some desirable features such as being purely electric or being “techy”. For the Model X there is the Volvo XC 90 plug-in with 19 miles of range which wouldn’t get many people to work in the winter. The screen is a bit Tesla like but from what I have heard is that Tesla’s screen (and infotainment system) is much better.

For the Model 3, the only true competitors are the i3 and Chevy Bolt. The i3 is selling ok but does not have a lot of range and is a small vehicle. For its price, it is not really a good deal unless you are looking for any ev. The Bolt is a much better choice but many do not like its style. It is also not really available because it is often seen as a complicance vehicle. I have heard that people were laughed out of the store when they wanted to buy it. It is also not available in Norway where it is anticipated the most. My guess is that the 2018 Nissan Leaf will be the best choice this year but compared to a Model 3 still a compromise because it lacks (amongst all non Tesla) a proper quick charging network.

So the real question should be: when will the other manufactures start delivering?

>For the Model 3, the only true competitors are the i3 and Chevy Bolt

More like the Chevy Bolt / Opel Ampera e, the i3 has very limited range while the Chevy/Opel offers between 300 and 500km of range thanks to its much bigger 60kWh battery. The BMW i3 only has a 33kWh battery in the newer version, previous one was even less than that... The Leaf 2018 goes in the right direction, but 40kWh is still no enough to do 3h+ road trips.

Also, you make a very good point by saying that the Chevy Bolt/Opel Ampera E is a much better choice (ignoring the design). Same pricing as the Model 3 but the range seems much better. Given the experience of Chevy, I think that they can reduce the price and mass produce the Bolt much faster than Tesla can do with the model 3.

The Tesla 3s that are currently getting delivered to customers are up to $20k more expensive than the Bolt. That people see the two cars as more or less equivalent is a massive success for GM.

Yes, but isn't the Model 3 supposed to sell for around 35 to 40k $ when it reaches a bigger production? That was my comparison.

The extra money is for options (e.g. to add longer range/higher performance, there’s an upgraded sound system etc.). The base car is $35-40k.

Yeah for $35k before any options. They currently only sell it with the premium package and only the range version. The premium package has improved audio (premium audio), USB ports for each passanger, powered seats and steering wheel, a glass roof, better build materials, rear heated seats as well as improved front heated seats. The long range version gets you 310 instead of 220 miles, improved 0-60 (0-100) times and fast supercharging, but sets you back another $9k. There is also the option to have autopilot for $5k (or less I don’t the correct price) but you can always buy that later over the air (at a premium). They also plan to add an option for white interior, air suspension, an AWD, and a performance version. So the model 3 can cost anything from 35k to 100k, though I don’t expect many to choose the performance version of the model 3. I personally believe that the standard battery, non premium version, and white interior will be available in a few months. The AWD and air suspension will probably be available by the end of the year. I don’t expect the performance version to be available until late next year. Tesla has given many timelines when we can expect what but that moves forth and back all the time.

35k will be the base. They are starting the production ramp with a single, more expensive options package.

> For the Model 3, the only true competitors are the i3 and Chevy Bolt. ... My guess is that the 2018 Nissan Leaf will be the best choice this year...

The Nissan Leaf isn't new in 2018, it's been around since 2011 and is (I think) still the most popular pure electric car. I'm aware that the 2018 should have some significant improvements, but I'm confused why you don't count either the current models or the 2018 as a competitor to the Model 3?

The Leaf has moved to 2nd generation for 2018, including a larger capacity battery and a whole new look. It's not the same car that came out in 2011.

The pre-2018 LEAF has around an 80 mile range with a passsively cooled battery that does very poorly in the long term. The new version is better but still not in the same league as the Model 3 or Bolt.

So your argument is that there its unfair to compare the Chevy Bolt to the Tesla 3 because the latter is prettier?

The argument is not that "it's unfair to compare". The argument is that everything else being roughly equal, people prefer to wait for the Tesla because of its style.

This was a customer car, so it would seem that the answer is “they already have.”

As far as anyone can tell, this is the first non-employee who's received his Model 3 and he took delivery on the 26th of December, two days before starting this drive - so presumably he's not exactly your average customer.

And?

I’ve seen three in the last few days and I haven’t spent much time driving.

based on some random youtube video, production went from zero to 150 to 350 over the last months. grain of salt etc etc

Per day? So around one to three years for the delivery of 150 000 cars.

Only if they stay at that rate. I think what he means is that they were able to double production in a relatively short period of time. Perhaps they can do that again a few more times.

Side note: if you know anyone with a Tesla and are in the Bay Area, owners can take three friends with them on a tour of the factory. It's fantastic and I highly recommend it.

Production will continue to scale. Estimates are given in ElonTime(TM) so need adjusting for the reality everyone else lives in.

Per month. But given how much faster they are with the other models and how bad their estimates have been for the Model 3, it just means we don't know how many vehicles they will average per day this year.

It's worth noting, though, that for the Model S and X the assembly lines were not built by Tesla. The Model 3 assembly line is the first one Tesla's ever made themselves.

The "old" Tesla factory was bought from a joint GM-Toyota venture that achieved average production of 25 000 vehicles per month running those lines for 25 years. Then that venture failed, Tesla bought the factory and repurposed the existing infrastructure.

It's like if SpaceX started by buying an old working NASA rocket design and repurposed it for the Falcon, but for Falcon Heavy they started entirely from scratch developing rocket fuels, engines, materials etc. without ever having done so before.

It's not really like that at all. To begin with, a Roadster / model S is not a repurposed Toyota - and that is exactly why Tesla has succeeded so far. Further, they completely reworked those lines with a huge amount of new equipment, to the point that is was worth it to them to buy the robotics manufacturer. It is closer to a technicality than starting from scratch. And as far as anyone knows, a huge part of the bottleneck hasn't even been in Fremont, but at the gigafactory (which they also built prior to the 3) - with a supplier who they have since removed from the equation.

Look at the rate of growth, not the current rate of manufacture.

How much further can they ramp up? That is the pertinent question.

Easier to annouce a Pickup than deliver a Model 3.

Well yes, just as it's easier to make snarky comments than provide actual content, as evidenced by your post.

My fail, I forgot it's sacrilege to critizize Musk here.

Model 3 production is way behind and currently does not look like it progressing. Musk is blaming Panasonic on the problems with batteries, while reports from the Model 3 factory tell about a lot of manual work.

So yes it is easier to announce a Pickup some years ahead than fix Model 3 production.

Nice downvote, the fact is they promise a lot but no cars are delivered. Its all backorders. Mine will come in 18 months ( w hope )

The article is about a customer in his already-delivered car.

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