Will a Colony on Mars Save Us Humans from Extinction? | Hacker News Reader

Will a Colony on Mars Save Us Humans from Extinction?

gabrielweinberg.com

6 pointsepi0Bauqu20 comments

Us trying to colonize Mars now would be like the British trying to colonize the Americas with nothing but canoes. It's impractical with our current technology; too long and too risky.

+1 but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try anyway.

I actually think that in this case, "too long and too risky" is prohibitive. This analysis explains why: http://www.astronomycafe.net/qadir/q2811.html

We're not doing it now because our technology is not good enough. It's less likely to fail if we first improve our technology.

And we can improve technology to go to Mars by trying to go to Mars, facing obstacles while doing it and overcoming it, right?

Tempting as it is to suggest that those who advocate spending tax dollars to send humans to Mars "try" breathing vacuum for a while to see if they can "overcome" that significant obstacle to Martian colonization... I think it's actually more polite to just say "no, I'm afraid you're wrong".

No. I'm afraid you're wrong.

I think that underestimates the state of our technology and its potential for growth by orders of magnitude.

Be careful, Moore's Law doesn't apply to everything.

Did I say it did? I don't even know what metric you would even use to suggest a Moore's Law application in this case.

That is the understatement of the millennium. The Polynesians actually did colonize the remote islands of the Pacific with nothing but canoes. No problem.

The difference is that they found fresh water and air on, e.g., Easter Island. To say nothing of the edible plants and the fish. And it took them at least several hundred years to cut down all the trees. By contrast, I estimate that the Martian forests will take approximately 0 years to be totally harvested -- which is just as well, because the Martian lumberjacks will be scared to take out an axe lest they accidentally slice open their pressurized suits.

I read National Geographic this month, too. Which is why I chose the Atlantic, because island-hopping is not possible.

Now is when I wish that the real Vikings wore those cool horned helmets. Because I just had this awesome vision of Leif Ericsson, horns and all, glowering at you with the entire population of Iceland, Norse Greenland, the Faeroes, and the Shetlands arrayed behind him and Led Zeppelin's Immigrant Song playing in the background. [1]

In other words: I'm guessing that the Atlantic is still five or six orders of magnitude more navigable than outer space. ;)

I haven't read National Geographic in years, actually, although I might go check it out just to read about the Polynesians.

[1] If you find yourself wondering what I'm talking about, be sure to google "Immigrant Song Kittens".

Note that I deliberately said "canoes."

Terra-forming Mars would be pretty hard.

According to Dan Simmons in the novel Hyperion, we will need to develop artificial intelligence to the point of singularity. Their gift to us from the AI's evolved beyind singularity will be space/time singularities which will allow us to travel and prosper in other worlds.

"Pick your poison. Nuclear holocaust. Disease. The death of our Sun. It doesn't matter. "

I would suggest it does matter. The death of our Sun could not be avoided by living on Mars.

Well, I was suggesting a colony on Mars would "start the process..." I think it would be wise to colonize Mars before going extra-solar.

Okay fair enough, I'll agree to that.

This reminds me of Google on April Fools' Day, creating a project willing to do exactly that.

http://www.google.com/virgle/

That's funny, but it is also a shame Mars colonization has become a butt of jokes instead of a reality. Or perhaps it means it is getting closer to reality in peoples' minds if it is an April Fools Joke (in the sense those jokes are often supposed to trick people)?

Google's previous April Fool's caper -- a sewer-based ISP -- wasn't too different from some real-life proposals:

http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2007/Apr/01/goog...

Or perhaps it means it is getting closer to reality in peoples' minds if it is an April Fools Joke

I think that's true, but I don't see it as a shame to be a joke in any way. I mean, in Google case, the joke is more in the application form and other subtle things, like the last FAQ question (http://www.google.com/virgle/faq.html#11) and the error page (http://www.google.com/virgle/error.html), which says, amongst other things:

  "... Virgle isn't real.
  
  Yet."

Reply on news.ycombinator.com