So what is the fair value of Bitcoin? Well, it's a new economic idea [1], so there's not a lot of prior art to gauge here. There's no P/E ratio, no rent/price ratios, nothing of that sort to give you at least a baseline feel for "does this seem frothy?"
Indeed, its value is ultimately based on projection: whatever you think Bitcoin could do, what values it might have, that's the valuation you're going to give to it. And people have given really daft ideas of its value: I've seen someone seriously argue that Bitcoin is useful for people who lack phones or internet. Other people argue that $19k is cheap, if Bitcoin somehow replaced all fiat currency. So there's no shortage of people willing to bid prices higher, and that's not counting speculators hoping to make money on a "free" get-rich-quick scheme.
[1] I say this as someone skeptical of high valuations of Bitcoin. Just because something is new and transformative doesn't mean it's valuable--just ask CDOs.
Everyone also expected it to drop at 5k, 10, 15k and it just didn't happen to a large extent. I stupidly bought in at 10k and got lucky to make some money but others stupidly bought in at 20k.
The only thing definitive about Bitcoin is that it will go up..and down. Claiming to know how high, how fast, or how low is BS.
That's the exciting part of an asset with no fundamental value.
They're valuable because literally everyone I interact with treats them as if they were valuable. If that changed, I'm sure USD would quickly become worthless.
You can say there's no difference between USD and BTC, but there's some difference between "a million people think they have value" and "three billion people think they have value".
In fact, Bitcoin has so much value that 5 years from now 19k will look like bargain of the century. People just can't seem to see the true potential of Bitcoin and ultimately blockchains.
edit: The futures markets may not have even been the catalyst for this drop, more likely it's this: "The market has also been artificially pumped up by Bitfinex and their money printing machine Tether."
The timing of increased volumes and the beginning of bulk selloffs times pretty closely with the announcement of a large hack in South Korea — and exchange called Youbit. They've completely shut down. South Korea is a huge market.
https://themerkle.com/youbit-hacked-again-closes-its-doors/
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data...
> The South Korean National Intelligence service believes that North Korean hackers were behind that attack, as well as a separate hacking of South Korea’s largest exchange, Bithumb, back in February. The Korean Internet and Security Agency is currently investigating Youbit’s most recent attack.
So I guess by now, Bitcoin crashing by 50% is as surprising or unsurprising as Bitcoin growing by 50% instead. So I'm not sure if you could really expect the crash, since that expectation requires understanding the unknown speculation mechanism that currently drives it. Though in the future some analysis in hindsight might tell us how to explain what market psychology is currently influencing the price.
Edit: Here's another from the same thread, with a motivated response to "sell when the shoe shine boy gives stock tips" on why "this time that's different" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15983811