Consumers are frustrated by endless streaming services
blog.peer5.com
blog.peer5.com
In this analogy, I dust off my copy of a bittorrent client that I thought I’d retired after HBO wised up. Because HBO Go, Netflix, and iTunes to fill in the gaps is as far as I’m willing to drive.
Not if you live (for example) in Germany. Every time I compare German Netflix to US Netflix I want to cry a little.
(If only they could have seen this coming... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5639076#5639327 oh right. This is pretty obvious stuff.)
Because they don't Netflix to monopolize the market. If that happens, Netflix will capture more than its fair share of the profits.
No real reason to think they won't be. Unit ticket sales have been declining some but overall box office is flat to a bit up.
But we have tons of stores that sell their own ice cream (and coffee, computers, etc.). Should Apple be required, by law, to sell Macs through Best Buy, Target, etc.?
My dad had a company about twenty years ago, that helped solve an important problem in getting cell phone coverage deep into buildings. They achieved this via a little hardware widget.
He'd frequently complain about various business issues, so one day I asked him: why are you guys having all these problems? Why are you leasing these widgets, why are there all these contracts in place? You guys make widgets; why not sell them?
So he explained it - if you make widgets and sell them, once every building has enough widgets, your company is done and you gotta go out and find some new way of making money. But if you're leasing these widgets, on a yearly basis, with a warranty plan, etc., etc., you can actually continue making money.
There hasn't been a "used to be" in forever. People have figured out that selling widgets isn't the best way to have a continuous revenue stream.
I'll make note of that should I ever find myself selling widgets. Should I ever buy said widget, I'm sure I won't need another one until this one breaks. Seems to me one could make money selling widgets that are a little different than the last ones sold, so the customer keeps coming back for more. Starting to see where I'm going with this?
However, Disney isn't selling widgets. Disney is selling a product I've purchased hundreds of times over. I mean, I've seen a movie. I own bits of plastic should I ever care to reuse that product. Yet I keep buying more of them. Just like no one leases me ice cream, either.
But I'm not here to argue. I'm here to say, "should Outcome A come to pass, here's what you can expect from me." Disney can do whatever the hell they please.
The Apple/Samsung model.
> Disney is selling a product I've purchased hundreds of times over.
Disney is extending copyright terms with heavy lobbying and cronyism, and then every few decades opens their "vault" for the new and younger generation of parents to buy the same product. As long as they can keep successfully lobbying for longer copyright this is a sustainable business model because quantity will be limited, and who owns a VHS player any more? Guess you should buy that DVD player after all, and the new DVD copy of Snow White. DVD? What's that?
There should be two choices you make as a consumer, for two separate things:
One, your streaming platform marketplace of choice. Amazon, Hulu, etc.
Two, the specific media you want to watch. You pay for that.
If you want to watch Stranger Things for example, it'll cost around $15, and you can purchase that on Hulu, Amazon, whatever.
Streaming services can get good at streaming, and compete with each other for the best platform.
Media creators can be good at media, and compete with every other media there is.
They don't want to let any company do what Apple did to the music industry. If another company owns the platform with all the customers, then they can dictate prices to everyone else.
Except in VR/internet there is no distance so “driving all over town” is the same as “walking all over the grocery store aisles” is the same as “flipping through galaxies with your fingers.”
And once you live in self driving rooms, for many intents and purpose driving all over town isn’t something you’d even notice happening.
It worked for radio and it worked for physical video rental (in fact that's the reason netflix's physical rental catalog has almost every movie while their digital catalog has few and keeps shrinking)
And let's not forget who keeps fighting for draconian copyright laws every 20 years -- Disney. I don't think we want Disney to become any larger/more powerful.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alishagrauso/2017/08/09/disney-...
Commercial radio stations and others can get a blanket license for playing songs, e.g. https://www.ascap.com/music-users/types/radio. Furthermore, if you want to cover a song you can automatically get a license to perform that song. The artist can't typically withhold that right the way a playwright, say, can.
Physical video rental, like the sales of used books, is allowed under first sale doctrine. You can't make copies and sell but, so long as you're lending or selling a physical copy that you bought, you're good.
Basically, it means there doesn't need to be any formal agreement between the broadcaster and the IP owner. If you own a radio station, you can play whatever song you want (provided it doesn't violate things like obscenity rules), and the IP owner can't say boo. The IP owner gets compensation, but they don't get to dictate what radio stations get to play their songs.
I generally agree that the fragmentation is a PITA. It would be nice to have an all-you-can-eat subscription for any content that's available digitally. Of course, then people will complain that their now bundled subscription offering costs $100/month and they can't just consume a la carte.
The analogy to cable bundles isn't perfect but it's similar in some respects. People don't really mind that they have maximum choice. They just want a cheaper price because they don't personally consume all the options on offer.
It's kind of like saying we should have a law to force car manufacturers to sell to any dealership, so Toyota can't have Toyota dealerships versus Ford having Ford dealerships. Maybe there is a hand-wavy argument that it would make car shopping more convenient, but is there an actual market failure that would justify regulatory intervention?
It should be noted that compulsory licensing for music is just an accident of history with no sensible economic foundation: http://digitalcommons.law.wne.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?articl....
I think the possible danger that compulsory licensing would prevent is that companies can use their market power in one area to starve out competition in another. For example, once Disney launches their streaming service, they could easily capture a large portion of the market due to their dominance in content creation
At the same time, there are huge downsides. You take all the negotiating leverage away from the content creators and give it to the distribution middlemen.
But then I ran across a story about how some theatre in Boston had to get into a negotiation with a playwright because he didn't want to give them the rights to perform his play. (Don't know the whole story but it was a smallish theatre company that puts on good but not normally outstanding productions.)
You also see this flare up in politics from time to time generally when a GOP candidate plays a song from a liberal leaning band at events and the band demands that this stop.
I'm also not sure if everyone is part of the royalty umbrella organizations and fall under that regime.
Sell your TV show to all the streaming services instead of one.
Of course lots of people will be like, "that's stealing" and "if creators don't make money shows don't get made," which is fine, as there is too much garbage for sale anyway. This way we kill two birds with one stone: the culling of shitty media AND greedy creators.
On the rare occasion that a show that I would like to watch is on a service I don't have, I can either, wait a year for it to become available ala carte (like GoT on iTunes, for example), I can watch at a friend's house, or I can just find something else to watch because there's so much good stuff on.
I can't think of any compelling reason to subscribe to either services with ads, or to dozens of streaming services. I won't get to watch everything, but honestly, I don't have time to watch everything. It's still cheaper and way less annoying than cable TV. Even if it weren't cheaper, I'd still do it because it's that much less annoying than cable TV.
There's very little that I just must see and even less that I must see right now. There's frankly far more really good content available than I'm ever going to get around to watching anyway.
Other than that, yeah, HBO Now and Amazon are enough for me. I'll wait for everything else. Netflix used to be enough for everything, but they seem determined to become a repository of garbage these days, so services had to be swapped around :(
EDIT: Does it really need to be stated that the context here is using bittorrent to illegally download copyrighted works, and that the protocol itself is not illegal?
BitTorrent is not only used for illegally downloading copies of copyrighted content, just like encryption is not exclusively used for terrorism.
I currently won't buy video content unless I know I will want to watch it again, or unless I have a reasonable expectation that multiple people will enjoy it once. That's because the current price point for most DVDs is too high for me. At $5 for a package with 4 different movies in it, I can take a chance on something out of the bargain bin, but $15-$25 for one movie is not reasonable unless I have already seen at least a portion of it and liked it.
So we have a problem. I won't buy something of unknown quality, and content producers don't want to show me something new unless I pay first. My dollars therefore don't go to them until after one of the following happens: I see it at the $2 second-run theater, I see it on television, I see someone else's licensed copy (incl. Redbox, Netflix, or public library), or I see a pirated copy. Nobody wants to buy a pig in a poke.
(Yes, that's right, the latter means that piracy can result in additional sales.)
Once I have assessed the quality of the work, I can decide how much I am then willing to pay to watch it again, on demand. If that's more than the current price of a disk copy, I might buy it. If not, there's only so long I am willing to wait for the price to drop, before my disposable income is already disposed of, and my available library storage space is filled. I might save it to a gift wish list, but it's more likely I'll simply forget it exists.
And it's not lost sales that kills you in a creative business, and it's not even people hating your stuff, it's people not knowing your work exists. So in my view, the burden is upon the content distributors to get my attention that first time, to signal a level of quality that will make me feel comfortable spending my money.
So here's the model I think will work:
- Establish a basic service for streaming permanently licensed content. For this, charge the marginal cost of hosting and outgoing bandwidth. Allow customers to suspend and reactivate their accounts at will, without hassle. Allow customers to download those titles and their licenses to local storage whenever they want. Make sure your application makes local versus streamed content seamless, so customers won't be tempted to use a different player.
- Allow customers to pay an additional $X to get $X in non-refundable service credit. For each purchase of service credit, give the customer N discovery tokens. Allow purchase of additional tokens with store credit. For example, $10 might get you $10 of store credit and 40 tokens, and spending $5 of that credit might give 20 more tokens.
- Allow customers to subscribe by automatically repeating a specific purchase package on a schedule they determine. Subscribers get bonus rentals and juicier discounts to encourage that option over pay-as-you-go.
- Customers may spend discovery tokens to temporarily license and stream content. One token should probably be roughly equal to one entire feature-length movie, or three hours of a television show. While temporarily licensed, purchase of a permanent license is discounted by $X/N for each token used.
- Allow some content to be streamed without tokens, and auction off a number of permanent licenses by allowing customers to secretly bid for them with their store credit.
- Use purchase/non-purchase and auction bid/price information to fuel the recommendations engine.
The bet here is that customers will never be content to just download their permanent catalog and use your application as a media player. They will always be paying you to discover new content, and paying more for you to recommend better reasons for them to pay you. During the time when someone is in maintenance mode, you are still putting your brand in their face and cultivating goodwill every time they watch. You are also offering a value-add over Netflix in that customers build up a sort of loyalty equity in your service, so that they build up a larger personal catalog as they continue to use it.
Customers were frustrated by highly integrated cable companies who charged for channels they didn't want. Now customers are frustrated by highly module content creators creating their own distribution channels, at the end of the day I do not think there will be a middle ground. Content has become segmented and you'd better pick your providers wisely.
The content creating companies don't want this however as they would lose power in this arrangement and probably make less money. That'll just lead to rampant piracy again. As we've seen with every type of digital good where consuming it legally was difficult/frustratinf
In the end for a popular movie it's often a better experience to just pirate it. Netflix churns through movies so frequently that actually finding something that's not sub-Kangaroo Jack in quality takes longer than just torrenting.
Still, they’re giving us few good choices.
About $45 a month.
And it's still worth it to enjoy a much better experience across multiple devices, no crazy fees for cable tv, and not having to deal with the cable company's crappy hardware.
It also helps that only pay $70 a month for unlimited gigabit internet.
And I still end up getting movies off of the "back of a truck"
Sorry creators, I can't support you, your owners are being dicks.
Does anyone know how the stakeholders managed to come up with Movies Anywhere? _Someone_ managed to get everyone talking. Could such an approach work for TV and VOD as well?
https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/12/16462824/movies-anywhere...
It also switches from a passive "watch what is available" model to an active "watch what you have sought out" model.
I'm not sure if the author realizes the irony in pining for a return to the equivalent of cable bundles.
Not to mention that there is nothing shocking about Netflix, Hulu or Amazon having less than zero interest in allowing their services to be bundled. It would undermine their very business model while also devaluing the service in consumers' minds.
It concludes with several disjointed, contradictory conclusions:
> We have seen these streaming services do little to distinguish themselves through technology, payment models or branding. There is a lot more that could be explored in the underlying system of how video is delivered over the internet, and this is an area many smaller services should begin to investigate, while the giants fight it out over who has the next Game of Thrones/Stranger Things hit.
Who cares how innovatively the video gets transmitted if all the shows you want to watch are on a different streaming service? Quite the fool's errand to throw money at tech innovation without great content as a foundation.
> Streaming video over the internet is hard. The underlying technology is complex and fickle, and to do it right is expensive. Perhaps as expensive as buying or creating content.
Spoiler: this is a lead-in to the sales pitch. And also why the current payments models are well-suited to the product: they ensure a higher degree of revenue to pay the high overhead.
> To be sustainable, a streaming service needs several pieces. It needs to handle high loads and deliver high quality streams. It needs great exclusive IP or popular original content. And it also needs to be innovative and to develop a strong brand to stand out in the crowd.
> It’s a big ask, but it is doable.
This statement undermines advocating for smaller services to take on the giants without all these necessary ingredients.
And the pitch (my critique is clearly not of their product or company):
> If you’d like to hear more about Peer5 and the advantages of P2P video streaming, you can reach out to us for a demo!
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The bottom line is this: this is a winner-take-all market that will consolidate down to 2-3 major players. Netflix, Amazon and probably Disney/Hulu (depending on Hulu's fate post DisneyFox merger). I am very doubtful we'll see HBO be able to replicate GoT and it will quickly fall to niche status. There will always be niche players, but we are already well past the point of seeing a challenger to Netflix. And the consolidation is most definitely in the average consumer's best interest to alleviate the very frustration that was the point of the article. Even more odd that the article advocates the creation of more streaming services (bundled or not) while starting with the premise of consumers' frustration over just such issues.
It isn't that complex to build out a CDN. Rent out unmetered server, slap together nginx, gluster, and openresty modules.