Hacker News Reader

Comment by wklauss | Hacker News Reader

> Sure. I'm talking about universal adoption because the article is ("take over the world")

Once you reach a critical mass of users, taking over the world will be inevitable, even with some of the inconveniences. Finding a gas station, for example, will get harder for ICE drivers as EV vehicles take off (lots of gas stations will go out of business, so you'll have to drive longer to refill your car), auto shops capable of dealing with ICE will become more scarce and expensive, etc...

At some point, the annoyance of owning an EV for some of the extreme edge cases will be less intense than the annoyance of owning an ICE vehicle. Even without proper infrastructure, the switch to an EV will be the only sensible move, even if it requires changing your habits.

View on HN

> Once you reach a critical mass of users, taking over the world will be inevitable, even with some of the inconveniences. Finding a gas station, for example, will get harder for ICE drivers as EV vehicles take off (lots of gas stations will go out of business, so you'll have to drive longer to refill your car), auto shops capable of dealing with ICE will become more scarce and expensive, etc

It feels like you are making them mutually exclusive, it's far more likely there will be significant overlap... Do you remember the LCD TV transition? There was a period where you could basically get TVs with huge screens for free. That period mostly passed and now LCD TVs are also more reasonably priced anyway. Something similar will no doubt happen with the EV transition, unless an outside force ban them (i.e heavy handed government regulation, like Japan's 5 year car rule or something).

For the gas stations, that infrastructure will also transition, and those huge fuel tanks sunk into the ground aren't going anywhere, i'm sure they will continue to sell petrol along side EV charging stations.

Also all those millions of mechanics with decades of experience aren't about to suddenly forget all their ICE specific knowledge. Additionally parts from breakers yards will will probably be near free.

and those huge fuel tanks sunk into the ground aren't going anywhere

You think I’m letting that pass without pointing out that the fuel tanks are a sunk cost? Gas stations are really convenience stores, they don’t make money on fuel. The only difference will be that we pull up in an EV to get our Big Gulp. Gas or no, that real estate will still be used to sell you chips and lottery tickets.

In the Seattle area, I know of at least three shops that specialize in VW vans, a vehicle last sold in the U. S. over 25 years ago. Three, for a vehicle that wasn’t that popular in the U. S. when you could buy them new. Yeah, yeah, hippy-wannabes and nostalgia, but the fact remains that more than one shop stays in business working on ICE vehicles that are old enough to have been doing keg stands for four years.

> You think I’m letting that pass without pointing out that the fuel tanks are a sunk cost?

That is true, yet it makes no difference to my point.

I’ve been waiting a whole day for someone to pick up on the pun, and this is what I get? :-) Your point stands, I was being a wiseacre.

lol, i saw that but was a bit confused to the extent of explanation you went to "sink" your pun in.

I doubt many will go out of business. At least in the U.S. the stations themselves make maybe 2-3 cents a gallon profit, which likely doesn't even begin to cover operating costs. The vast majority of their income is from the convenience store items.

All but the most poorly run will pay whatever is needed to install electric chargers and stay in the game.

I think the point is that since most people will charge at night, and capacity keeps improving, eventually if evs become really common, people will have less opportunity to buy something at a gas station.

That is definitely relevant, we don't know how much day-to-night load shifting will happen. On the other hand, there's also the probability that people who find themselves needing to charge during the day will often need more time than a gas fuelup would take, making them more likely to buy something. It's hard to predict what will happen of course, but those shop owners are going to fight to stay alive.

Buying gas is a necessity, but also often an excuse to buy stuff on your way too and from work.

Wait until you have kids and are traveling. There is always a snack that was forgotten, a meal missed, or something left at home.

That's not nearly enough to support running a store.

I imagine that they will have to invest in things that will keep people there longer.

For instance at the moment in the UK many supermarkets are putting mini stores in petrol stations.

However with electric charging taking longer, I can imagine that McDonalds might start buying up petrol stations.

It's very common already to have fast food outlets either connected to or adjacent to convenience stores at gas stations.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com