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As a counterexample, my parents traveled alone as children in the U.S. in the 40s and 50s; it was more common then. But they both grew up to be risk-averse adults anyway. And maybe you would have been a brave adult regardless?

As a parent, you're often forced to weigh a high probability of nothing bad happening vs. a very small probability of something terrible happening. But putting your kids on a bus or dropping them off at school isn't likely to scar them for life.

And then in New York we get stories of a kid being abducted on a 2-block walk from school.

I guess in my family the thought is: Listen, 99% of the time everything will be mostly okay, but that 1 time when your kid gets abducted or ran over is that 1 time when it doesn't matter how safe the other 99 times were.

Also in New York I can't count the number of times drivers almost hit me, or hit my friends while 100% in the wrong. The drivers here are insane.

it's much lower than 1% unsafe or the average kid going to school alone would get kidnapped three and a half times a year :p

0.99^365.25 = 0.0254, so a kid going out alone every day would have a 2.54% chance of surviving the year without being abducted or run over by a car.

you guys are calculating different numbers. you just calculated the chances based on the assumption that 1/100 children will be abducted each year. Whereas the other poster was saying the average child will get abducted once in every 100 days

This sub-thread is an exercise in showing how absurd the 1% chance of getting abducted (on a given day) would be. Don't take it too seriously. That said, you're wrong, and nobody is ever allowed to be wrong on the internet. I will now proceed to correct you.

> 99% of the time everything will be okay

I took this as meaning that 99/100 trips are without incident. I then assumed that a kid might take a trip every day. The probability of taking consecutive 365.25 trips without accident are then 0.99^365.25 (odds of surviving the first trip times odds of surviving the second trip and so on...). This works out to 0.025, or 2.5%.

So, what I calculated is the probability that a kid will avoid accident in a year, given that only 99/100 days are without accident.

The takeaway is that a kids chances of getting abducted on a given day are much, much smaller than 1%.

He's wasn't trying to contradict me. The things we say can be (and are) both true at the same time. I took the approximate average of a 365 tries binomial of 1%, and he computed the probability distribution function of this same binomial for X=0.

yep the average of a 365 tries binomial with 0.01 chance is 3.65 and the value of the pdf for X=0 is 0.0254

Yes, we do get stories about a NYC kid being abducted on a 2-block walk from school. Specifically, one kid being abducted, in 1979.

Getting hit by a car is a real risk worth accounting for. Getting abducted on the way to school isn't.

There are also stories about adults getting kidnapped 2 blocks from home. People still leave the house.

> Getting abducted on the way to school isn't.

I’m not so sure about that. I live in an affluent part of WA where there’s close to zero crime. A couple times a year we get emails from the school district with descriptions of cars and people that approached kids on their way to or the school, trying to get the kids into their cars. An actual abduction has never occurred in the 5 years that I’ve lived here, but clearly there are attempts.

Are abductions rare because they almost never happen in the first place, or because Americans take extreme measures to avoid them?

Aren't the extreme measures a recent thing, like the last 10 or 20 years?

I don't remember being Molly cuddled like today's kids and I'm in my late 30s (UK).

molly-coddled

Molly cuddling does sound cuter, though.

Even before helicopter parenting was a thing in America (and this continues to hold today), the vast vast vast majority of abductions happen by a relative of the child. Abductions are already very rare, but of those that happen only 3.1% are by a stranger[1].

[1] https://www.seeker.com/child-abductions-by-strangers-very-ra...

Do you plan your life around the dinosaur-ending asteroid? :)

I walked from home to elementary school daily ~3 miles in Queens growing up in the late 80’s. I was almost robbed once, but I was luckily able to avoid harm. Otherwise it was a totally uneventful experience. My nephew did get hit and injured (minor) by a car in Manhattan on the way to school (hit and run driver), so I guess that risk is real.

I am currently traveling in Xiamen, Fujian, China.

I feel very safe here walking at all hours of the day and night. In fact everyone feels safe here. Women can walk home any time of day and feel safe. Children and young adults as well. In my time here, and I stick out being white, nobody has tried to do any harm to me or anything related.

I am starting to think that the almost getting hit is a product of being to busy and always in a hurry. I am walking about 5 miles each day. The cars here are also insane, worse than NYC (I live close to NYC). The culture here is to hurry , get something done faster, everyone is always to busy and wants to speed up. I have almost been hit a number of times while crossing the street. Here it is cars first, then motorbikes, then people.

>> I have almost been hit a number of times while crossing the street. Here it is cars first, then motorbikes, then people.

I think a lot of the conflict arises from the fact that legally pedestrians have the right of way but in practice it's cars first and stay outta my way.

America used to be like this also. I remember playing with fire ants and rattle snakes when I was 5-6 years old (had to go to the hospital for the former, hyperbole on the latter), I climbed the mountain in front of our house (Red Mountain before it became vineyards). Later we moved to Toledo, not known for being the safest city, and we still roamed the neighborhood at will.

As the newish father of a baby, I really worry that my son won’t be able to experience that unless we move to China or some other country. Heck, it’s even better today since you can send them out with a cellphone.

No need to go to china. We let our kids roam pretty free in Finland :)

Ya, it’s just where we were before and where grandma is.

Fascinating. I mean just the general American nuclear family values from 1950s, 60s are still being actively replicated in other predominantly homogeneous countries with strong patriarchy: ex. South Korea where men are the breadwinner, soldiers on command, women are expected to follow and take care of children.

Japan and Korea have highly homogeneous on the confucius spectrum....I believe this uniting values is what allowed people to stay in lanes so to speak..... Honestly, I think it will be a long time before these countries open up their doors to "outsiders". Italian Koreans or French Japanese? I'm disgressing but I'd argue in those European countries you probably won't see kids walking to school alone and for strong safety reasons.

Still, even in conservative places like Korea, liberal changes like those seen in American societies of the 70s mixed with credit fueled bubble frenzy of the late 1980s have begun to appear.

Anyways these are just my crazy theories, like seeing the parallel rise of GDP & scantily clad women in mainstream TV in 1980s (focus on legs) Japan, similar to S. Korea's hyper-sexual K-pop movement (once again legs are in) similar to America's craze for legs during the 80s, 90s. Now it's all about big butts, an economic indicator a new bull run?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemline_index

Anyways, I don't know how I arrived at this subject but I'm always fascinated by America 70 years ago especially when described from older HN users vs today, and it's echoing impact on the world.

> I'm disgressing but I'd argue in those European countries you probably won't see kids walking to school alone and for strong safety reasons.

I don't know for sure about Italy or France (though I'd be very surprised if they were not basically the same), but in Germany, I walked to school alone starting in first grade, and from fourth grade onwards I in fact had a 40min public transport commute to the neighbouring city that involved several interchanges; from what I can tell, this was normal at least from fifth grade onwards (since you choose secondary schools fairly carefully based on subject specialisation). Also, as far as I can tell, very little changed about this even in the face of recent paranoia about refugees.

I’m not that old, this was in the 80s when the crime cycle was basically at its peak.

And I have a friend who is paralyzed from neck down for diving into a swimming pool. The term "Survivorship bias" is inspired by these stories of how "everyone I know turned out fine".

Huh? 99.99% of these kids turn out fine, there is no survivorship bias about it. If anything, it’s exceptional case bias against free ranging (look, this one person got hurt, out of 100,000+).

I only grew up in Canada but had a similar experience: my parents would tell me to stay in the neighbourhood (about 20 streets winding around hills and parks) and and be home by dark. That was it. I spent entire childhood summers wandering forests with my friends, making forts, going on adventures.

That being said, it probably helps when you live somewhere with no significant crime. I dunno if my parents would have allowed that if we didn't move away from Scarborough (Toronto suburb with some crime issues at the time)

> it probably helps when you live somewhere with no significant crime

I'm sure that helps put parents at ease, but I think even hardened criminals are very unlikely to randomly attack children. Aside from the fact that most criminals still have some level of humanity, there's not much to gain from it.

Other kids are much more likely to mistreat kids than adult criminals, but kids find ways to do that even in relatively supervised situations.

Also I bet a lot of hardened criminals have seen Home Alone and have great fear of children.

I would guess that criminals have kids and kids of criminals are more likely to become the bullies and thugs that follow you into the forest to beat you up and take your bike.

My anecdotal experience has made me think that bullying traits in kids have little correlation with their parents being “criminals”... met plenty of bullies whose parents were “productive citizens”

Thank you for sharing your ignorant prejudice?

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I still think this misses the point that the Japanese have a shared respect and responsibility to each other and to their space that we don't instill in American culture at all. In fact, we mock their customs more often than adopt them.

What do we mock about Japanese culture? It's pretty widely admired as far as I can see.

The bowing, for one glaring example.

I'm not a people person and keep to myself in public but I will act if I see someone kidnap or harass a minor. Its common decency and I'm sure Americans still have that?

The bystander effect is pretty strong.

How do you know it's a kidnapping and not just a parent?

In my opinion, Confucius roots are present in both Korean and Japanese societies but more in Korea since it was popular there and naturally spread out to Japan in the very early days...ironically not as popular in China where it originated from but their decendants are royalty throughout East-Asia.

Shared respect and responsibility comes naturally to minimize shame, a negative social credit. Self-shaming rises out of being mindful of one's actions and words. Also helps if you are a Buddhist country.

The results are remarkable. For instance you can leave keys in your car, pass out from drinking on the streets with wallet bulging with cash and almost no Korean or Japanese person would think of even touching it. Note that this does not mean theft is absent in these countries but I do note that even criminals seem to be regular citizens, blending in as much as possible unlike street gangs you see in North America that advertises it openly.

Confucianism was designed from ground up to bring peace and stability in societies during time of extreme political and military upheaval and Chosun dynasty (Korea's longest ruling political power) embraced it and promoted heavily.

It's not without problems tho. Speaking as Korean.

But then why does Japan have a massive problem with sexual assault on subways?

And a Yakuza crime syndicate so feared that cartoons don't show 4-fingered characters?

Not sure why getting roped on train or having organized crime like every other country in the world are related

This. How can I teach my two kids this sort of independent without getting a citation by children's services? Serious question.

Check out this case from my former neck of the woods: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meitiv_incidents

They just did it, were investigated, came out in the clear, and then set precedent that allowed others to do it as well.

So the only way is to get reported to the cops, get my children held against their will, mount a legal challenge and win to set a legal precedent in my state/county. Ouch.

The US is not the same US it was 10 years ago, and wasn't the same ten years before that... Kind of an interesting hypothesis to why we shouldn't call this the land of the free anymore. Parents are now being called legal gaurdians in some circles as a way to show how that state now owns children.

Qua?! Legal guardians is just a more general term than parents, which can encompass situations like orphans cared for by grandparents. Had nothing to do with saying that the state 'owns children.'

Legal guardians has always meant something different than biological parents.

> we shouldn't call this the land of the free anymore.

Did you miss the part where they won and CPS released a statement that the cops overreacted? What more American thing is there than repeatedly disobeying wrong instructions from the government?

Their kids learned that in America if you didn't do anything wrong you can challenge The System and win. Seems like a lesson worth teaching to me!

Please delete this blantantly false comment.

Fortunately other people have started to set that legal precedent, so hopefully you won't have to. That case in Maryland was national news, and precedent isn't necessarily limited by jurisdiction.

What matters is what YOU do, and what your children are allowed to do. What matters, is that if you let your children play outside alone and unsupervised, tomorrow they will be taken away by CPS or equivalent protective services organization of your country[1].

([1] In Germany - Jugendamt, though I find Germans are surprisingly good with allowing the children autonomy they need. Getting a call from Jugendamt however is really really scary. It's quite awful how these agencies are used as a blunt baton against the very families they are supposed(?) to protect and help.)

I saw a tv show comparing UK and German family, life from BBC. I don't know how accurate or biased that production was but from an outsider, I marveled at the amount of infrastructure built around supporting traditional Germany families. For instance, women who marry are incentivized to stay at home and take care of the children and home. Similarly, kindergartens spend time outside away from books and a long career of state sponsored rote memorizers. Even more fascinating is they don't seem to force school on people who aren't interested in it, instead providing stable and secure trade jobs which you will master in some apprenticeship...backed by monopolies built from the ashes of WW2, dominating global markets....trickledown effect that actually works.

of course....my view will never fully reflect the realities of an average German living in Germany....I'm basing it off on that BBC show anyhow so I expect to be wrong in many areas....

but I still admire the German system as described, not sure how well it's implemented....

They also have one of the lowest birth rates in Europe. Although apparently it increased a little recently...

> I also spent most of my childhood playing outside eating dirt, and go figure, I have no allergies or immune problems.

Me too, except that I have severe asthma and am allergic to all sorts of organic things.

Your anecdote is not data.

Might also be worth considering that your parents had little fear of strangers and you inherited that lack of fear.

I had to get myself to school from the fourth grade on and still walked or biked myself sometimes to second and third grade. My daughter is six right now and wants to walk to her friend’s house down the street but which I’d be fine with if she didn’t get lost walking out the front door. Maybe in another year...

How do your kids go to school?

Nobody wants to breed with computer weirdos like me.

To every weirdo there's a counterpart <3 (And to non-weirdos as well.)